* This is an archive of my own online blog and notes, with weekly entries collected by month.
* THE WEEK THAT WAS: Retired US Army General Mark Hertling, who has been cited here in the past, got weary of listening to the complaints of those saying US support of Ukraine is inadequate, and decided to respond on Twitter, first citing comments from THE KYIV INDEPENDENT:
QUOTE:
MINISTER: HIMARS destroyed about 50 Russian ammunition depots in Ukraine.
Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov was referring to US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers. "Our gunners use HIMARS very precisely. They work like a surgeon with a scalpel," he said on July 25. President Zelenskyy adds: "The name HIMARS has become almost native to our people -- just like Javelin or NLAW, like Stugna or Neptune earlier."
END_QUOTE
Hertling added:
QUOTE:
A strong & accurate comment by Ukraine Defense Minister Reznikov. Interestingly, I read several articles in major newspapers this weekend -- all written by journalists -- saying in so many words: "We must give UKRAINE more HIMARs!"
There are reasons we have provided the limited number & type of combat systems. Ukraine originally asked for the M270 tracked MLRS; we provided HIMARS instead, because it was the better solution. The M142 HIMARS is a fast-moving wheeled vehicle that travels almost 100 KPH (60 MPH) on roads, half that on rough terrain. The M270 MLRS is a tracked vehicle designed to keep up with tanks on rough terrain. It is not only slower, but it is harder to maintain. HIMARS is just an ordinary heavy truck carrying a rocket launcher. It's also easier to train the smaller crew needed for HIMARS.
MLRS missiles come in pods or "sixpacks", with six missiles each. HIMARS can fire one pod, while the M270 can fire two. Given that HIMARS can quickly reload and fire again, the limitation to one pod isn't very troublesome, and is more than offset by the greater mobility and serviceability.
So why only 16 HIMARS launchers delivered? There are a number of reasons:
In addition, MLRS rockets have relatively long range, and 16 launchers can cover the front -- as long as they have rockets to fire. That leads to a particularly important factor most journalists don't consider: instead of focusing on HIMARS launchers, consider the missiles being shot! Here's some back of envelope battlefield math:
That mean 12 x 16 = 192 missiles per day, or about 5,800 missiles per month. Given at least 90% kill probability, that means taking out about 5,200 targets.
The US does have stockpiles of these precision "smart" missiles, but the manufacturer makes about 9,000 per year. A smart planning consideration of our Department of Defense -- and all the other nations that are supplying MLRS -- is this: How much risk do we take in giving UKR a very large percentage of our smart weapons? What if, in the near future, we face this or another enemy in a conflict? It is also not clear that there is any need to use HIMARS to destroy thousands of targets, when other and cheaper weapons are available to deal with most of them.
I'm 100% sure I don't have all the considerations that went into this decision-making -- but I'm also relatively sure those saying: "Give UKR everything it wants!" -- are also not considering several important US national security factors. Bottom line: I believe Secretary of Defense Austin, NATO Secretary General General Jens Stoltenberg, and NATO member states are applying prudent decision-making in determining what equipment they can send Ukraine that will make a difference on the battlefield.
END_QUOTE
I keep saying on Twitter: "Support of Ukraine is clearly inadequate, because they need everything yesterday. They can't get everything, and they can't get it yesterday."
Somebody else added, relative to those claiming there's some scheme at work to starve Ukraine of weapons, that if that were the case, we would be hearing endless leaks from the Pentagon. We're not, because everyone involved is working overtime and has neither time nor inclination to complain to the press.
* We've had a hot summer in Colorado, but so far the fires have been muted. Not so much in Europe; Britain has had its hottest days ever, and has been suffering fires, as has been much of Southern Europe. The fires have been particularly troublesome in Slovenia, since they've been cooking off dud artillery rounds left over from World War I. There's been hundreds of detonations, with the authorities finding it hard to keep count.
* The House committee investigating the 6 January 2021 Capitol riot has been taking flak from Right-wing media. THE DAILY SHOW'S Desi Lydic has been investigating the pushback, and has issued a report:
QUOTE:
The January 6th Committee just wrapped its first series of hearings into the so-called "assault on the Capitol". But what does it all mean and why is it totally meaningless? Well, I've been watching "Fox News" for 439 hours straight and I'm ready to FOXSPLAIN the January 6th hearings!
First off, these hearings are boring, and nothing boring is worth paying attention to. That's why I've never filed a tax return. Everyone on this "Shamuary 6th Shamittee" is anti-Trump. Where are the pro-Trump, pro-January 6th people? Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the QAnon shaman. What does he have to do to get on the committee? Storm the Capitol again?
Why does this committee only wanna know what Trump did on January 6th? What about what he did on February 6th or April 10th? There's so many days. This committee is a witch-hunt, full of witch hunters, but which hunter should they be hunting? HUNTER BIDEN!
Democrats are so hypocritical. They call Donald Trump a liar, but they believe all these people who worked for Donald Trump -- who we know is a liar. These hearings were all hearsay ... heresy ... horsey ... Hiroshima. What about the real insurrections? The insurrection inside Biden's brain. The insurrection inside Fauci's Disney lab.
Oh, so everyone's upset about missing texts and call logs. Where was this outrage for all the missing ballots that Democrats composted and ground into Impossible Burger meat?! We need to hear from the Secret Service agent. Also, any Secret Service agent who testifies is a traitor! "Why didn't Trump call the National Guard?" Oh, so now you want rich white people to call the police. Make up your mind, liberals.
Yeah, some people ask for pardons. Asking for a pardon is the polite thing to do. "Oh, did I bump into you? Pardon me? I'm sorry, did I cut you off? Pardon me? My goodness, did I accidentally try to orchestrate the murder of my colleagues at the hands of a mob? Pardon me?"
What happened to people's manners? It's a conspiracy because one member of Congress asked for a pardon? Two members? That's barely a three? That's a small soiree. Six? Plus a lawyer? And a chief of staff? It's just a pardon groupon, totally innocent.
Well, that's everything you need to know about the January 6th hearings. I hope that helped.
PSST: Liz Cheney has dragon wings.
END_QUOTE
* As discussed in an article from REUTERS.com ("Nigerian Businesses Turn To Solar As Diesel Costs Bite" by Macdonald Dzirutwe, 12 July 2022), the recent crunch on oil has been a big hint that the world needs to shift to renewable energy sources. Solar-energy companies in Nigeria are seeing that shift through a surge in demand for mini-grids and equipment, as businesses in Africa's biggest oil producer look for alternative power sources after the cost of diesel soared.
Nigeria, Africa's largest economy with a population of more than 200 million people, has installed electricity capacity of 12,500 megawatts -- but the national grid only provides 4,000 MW at peak, leaving businesses and citizens heavily reliant on diesel-powered generators. While gasoline is subsidized, diesel is not, and its price has tripled, mostly due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Energy Commission of Nigeria says the country spends $22 billion USD annually to fuel generators.
Solar power adoption is estimated at below 2%, and some businesses perceive it as unsuitable for large-scale use. One study showed that Nigeria's installed photovoltaic power generation capability per capita amounted to 1 watt, compared to an average 8 watts in similar emerging markets like South Africa.
Prince Ojeabulu -- CEO of Rensource Energy, a Nigerian solar-power provider -- says that negative attitude towards solar is changing as energy costs eat into company margins. In 2021, Rensource installed under a megawatt of solar panels, but it is now constructing 6 MW plants. He says: "By the end of the year, going by the trend that we see so far, we should have 12 MW of solar installations operational across Nigeria, or even more."
It's not all smooth sailing, however, due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Ukraine War and COVID-19 lockdowns in China. Finding local financing has been troublesome too, but money is flowing in from overseas development financial institutions seeking to invest in businesses focusing on green energy. The long-term prospect is, however, "sunny".
* In closely related news, another article from REUTERS.com ("Malawi Solar Mini-Grid Shows Promise", 21 April 2022) described the implementation of a solar-power project in Malawi -- where the village of Sitolo uses an array of photovoltaic panels to power maize mills, a sunflower oil facility, and to power small businesses.
In Malawi, more than three quarters of the country's roughly 20 million population does not have access to electricity -- a higher proportion than Africa's average of roughly half. Small villages in Africa are often "off the grid", with delivering electricity to them being problematic. Village-level solar power installations can be much more cost-effective, and eliminate the need to run expensive and dirty diesel generators.
The Sitolo project connects more than 700 people across three villages. Local farmers no longer have to trek long distances to get their maize milled or sunflower seeds pressed. Brenda Limbikani, a sunflower farmer, said local people never used to grow sunflowers. She says: "But with this oil-pressing machine, more people have planted the crop. This year, the number of farmers growing sunflowers is more than ever."
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: The war in Ukraine drags on, but it is clear the Russians, and their Ukrainian separatist allies, are getting the worst of it. That was reflected in an intercepted phone call, between a separatist soldier and his mother & father:
QUOTE:
SOLDIER: ... Ukrainian Army is the most powerful army in the whole world.
MOTHER: Khokhols?! [derogatory term for Ukrainians]
SOLDIER: Yes ... It's the truth ... They are not even scared of your Russians. The fuck knows who they're scared of.
MOTHER: But on videos from the internet, when they're captured, they're pissing themselves!
SOLDIER: ... Did you even see the casualties rate?
MOTHER: They don't tell us about casualties ... They don't disclose those numbers. At all.
SOLDIER: Well, you don't know lots of things ...
MOTHER: Yeah, I get that we don't know the truth. They don't tell us the truth, Serezha.
FATHER: We've been told all is good.
SOLDIER: They tell you fairy tales ... The best army is Ukrainian. I'm telling you this -- the Ukrainian Army is the best ... though I wish it wasn't.
MOTHER: Yes, it sounds terrible!
SOLDIER: But that's how it is, honestly. And even if we're moving forward, we only do it with a very high casualties rate. Very, very high rate.
FATHER (presumably to MOTHER): And I told you, and you didn't believe me! That's what I told you.
SOLDIER: They fuck us up in a snap -- our regiment was fucking destroyed ...
END_QUOTE
A video was circulating of a HIMARS attack on a Russian supply train at night. It was a continuous chain of thunderous secondary explosions, shattering the night. It appears that Ukrainians are enthusiastic about Saint HIMARS. One video, to the soundtrack of Metallica's ENTER SANDMAN, spliced together clips of HIMARS in devastating action, concluding with: HIMARS GLOBAL TOUR 2022 / COMING SOON / TO A RUSSIAN MUNITIONS DEPOT NEAR YOU!
At the bottom end of the munitions scale, the Ukrainians are very enthusiastic about small commercial quadcopter drones. A video showed a Ukrainian soldier, nicknamed "Screw" for whatever reason, putting together miniature aerial bombs from 40-millimeter launcher grenades. They're about the size of an egg; Screw attached a cap with a detonator on it, plus a tailkit with fins, the accessories being 3D-printed. He says he's made hundreds of the little bombs.
As far as other weapons in the war go, the Russians released a photo of the remains of an AGM-88D HARM anti-radar missile, which had apparently chewed up an air-defense radar. That was surprising, because Ukraine is not known to fly any aircraft qualified to use HARM. If the report is true, clearly there is some improvisation at work, either air or ground launch, with an air asset carrying the specialized HARM targeting system. All the complaints about the failings of military aid to Ukraine don't recognize that Ukraine is getting weapons nobody is talking about.
* Along with the Ukraine War, China's belligerence over Taiwan was on full display this last week, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island as part of an Asia tour, despite loud objections from Beijing. China responded to the visit with a major set of military provocations, including missile launches. There was much fuss over how the USA handled the matter, but if Pelosi had backed down, Beijing would have felt more emboldened to react against the next perceived provocation. Nothing in the status quo changed. We may be on the road to calamity, but we would have been in any case.
The USA doesn't own the Taiwan problem; China does. Xi Jinping has as much claim to Taiwan as Vladimir Putin has to Ukraine, and neither the people of Taiwan nor Ukraine are going along. Xi needs to watch what happens to Putin. It might prove educational.
* As discussed in an article from REUTERS.com ("Global Wind And Solar Growth On Track To Meet Climate Targets" 31 March 2022), a report from the climate think tank Ember from March says that solar and wind power can grow enough to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius if the 10-year average compound growth rate of 20% can be maintained to 2030.
Solar generation gained 23% globally in 2021, while wind supply gained 14% over the same period. Both renewable sources together accounted for 10.3% of total global electricity generation, up 1% from 2020. The Netherlands, Australia, and Vietnam had the fastest growth rates for the renewable sources, replacing about 10% of their electricity demand from fossil fuels to wind and solar in the last two years. Ember's global lead Dave Jones said that the main obstacles to growth are political constraints like permitting, and that governments need to take down those obstacles.
However, despite gains in wind and solar, coal-fired power generation saw its fastest growth since at least 1985, up 9% in 2021 at 10,042 terawatt hours (TWh), or 59% of the total demand rise. This came in a year of rapid demand recovery, with 2021 seeing the largest recorded annual increase of 1,414 TWh in global electricity demand in 2021, the equivalent of adding a new India to global demand. The biggest demand rise was recorded in China, up 13% in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. China relies largely on coal for power production, but passed the one-tenth of power generation from wind and solar landmark for the first time in 2021 along with six other countries.
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: As discussed in an article from REUTERS.com ("Democrats Score Big Wins" by David Morgan, 8 August 2022), the House of Representatives has now passed the "Inflation Reduction Act" -- a $430 billion USD drug pricing, energy, and tax bill, mentioned here last week after it cleared the Senate. It now goes to President Joe Biden's desk for signing.
The package is a scaled-back version of Biden's "Build Back Better" proposal, which was blocked by conservative Senate Democrats Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema as too expensive. Manchin and Sinema voted for this bill; no Republicans did, and it was only passed through the Senate because Vice President Kamala Harris was able to cast a tie-breaking vote. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said:
QUOTE:
This is one of the most comprehensive and impactful bills Congress has seen in decades: it will reduce inflation, it will lower prescription drug costs, it will fight climate change, it will close tax loopholes, and it will reduce -- reduce -- the deficit. For families struggling to pay the bills, for seniors struggling to pay for medications, for kids struggling with asthma. This bill is for them.
END_QUOTE
According to a recent Reuters / IPSOS poll, about half of Americans -- some 49% -- support the bill, including 69% of Democrats and 34% of Republicans. The bill includes:
Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell predictably blasted the bill, saying: "Hundreds of billions of dollars in tax hikes on a struggling economy will kill American jobs. He denounced the legislation as a "so-called inflation bill that will not meaningfully reduce inflation at all, and will actually make inflation even worse in the short term."
It is true that the impact of the bill will be long-term; major bills are like that -- though it is also true that inflation is in part a matter of social psychology, and reassuring the public that things are being done helps cool it off. In any case, President Joe Biden was ceding no ground to the Republicans, declaring the bill a big win: "Senate Democrats sided with American families over special interests, voting to lower the cost of prescription drugs, health insurance, and everyday energy costs and reduce the deficit, while making the wealthiest corporations finally pay their fair share."
Incidentally, Senator Bernie Sanders, marked as the furthest Left the Senate gets, wasn't happy with the bill, saying among other things: "This legislation does not address the reality that we have more income and wealth inequality today than at any time in the last hundred years." He concluded: "This reconciliation bill goes nowhere near far enough in addressing the problems facing struggling working families. But it is a step forward and I was happy to support it." One wonders, however, if Sanders was, by dissing the bill, trying to encourage Fox News to approve of it.
Other major legislation -- on gay marriage and voter rights -- remains in the wings, for when Congress returns from summer recess. The big interesting question in that context, as mentioned here last week, is if Manchin pushes filibuster reform to get the legislation passed. Things are looking up in that direction, but we'll see.
* On 9 August, a series of violent explosions shook a Russian airbase in occupied Crimea, with startled tourists watching mushroom clouds rising into the air. Nobody knows what happened; the explosions were big, and the Ukrainians are not known to have weapons with nearly enough range to reach the airbase. The Ukrainian government blandly claimed that it had been a partisan attack, but few believed that. Speculation on Twitter was all over the map, muted by the general awareness that it was best to keep the Russians guessing.
Fighting still grinds on in the Donbas region, but precision attacks by HIMARS rocket launchers have seriously hobbled the Russians, who are no longer making even slow progress. The VOICES FROM RUSSIA & UKRAINE YouTube channel, which plays phone intercepts of Orc soldiers, suggests the Russians are flatly terrified of HIMARS. Although intercepts have been drying up somewhat due to better Russian security, a recent intercepted conversation between a Russian soldier and his father suggests desperation is sinking in:
QUOTE:
FATHER: Son, your voice sounds sad. Hold on in there! Cheer up! ...
SOLDIER [glumly]: Honestly, I think it's because nobody will replace us ... It's just -- you know what I think now? After 6 months, what next? Will it be a one-year mission? ...
FATHER: What did those jackals tell you about that mission?! Are they just silent about it and don't tell you anything?!
SOLDIER: They don't know anything themselves.
FATHER: ... I call everyone, fuck! BTW, do they fire a shitload of shells at you?
SOLDIER: ... It's hard to count ... the whole day, every 5 to 10 minutes.
FATHER: ... artillery, mortars?
SOLDIER: Yes.
FATHER: ... Grad, Uragan [rocket launchers], what else?
SOLDIER: Everything! ... you can even hear HIMARS at work from far away.
FATHER: Be careful with HIMARS ... it's really precise. It's just fucking hell. [The YouTube host, normally impassive, smiled and gave a thumbs-up.]
END_QUOTE
Ukrainian forces are under severe pressure, but much more upbeat. Ukrainian General Dmytro Marchenko gave an interview with several interesting comments, excerpted here:
QUOTE:
Q: There is open information that the occupants have been pulling forces to the south -- to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions -- for several weeks. Is it for some serious offensive operation or local attacks?
A: This is probably to make it more convenient for us to destroy them in a pile. There is information that they are reinforcing the troops they already had there. They understand that Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive operation, so they are strengthening their groups there, moving battalion tactical groups. But this will not help them much. Our Southern Command is now very successful in artillery strikes against enemy targets. In the last week, they destroyed more than ten ammunition depots and command posts. Therefore, believe me, the situation is not as bad as everyone thinks.
Q: Is the increased intensity of shelling in Mykolaiv some element of their preparation for an offensive, or is it solely for terror and intimidation of the locals?
A: I would say that the intensity, on the contrary, has decreased. Today [9 August] was the first quiet night. The South Command, in addition to many ammunition depots and command posts, very aptly struck an entire S-300 [missile] division. So they are not doing as well as they may seem.
Q: Let's imagine, there is no way they can approach and surround Mykolaiv, so they will try to break through to the Odesa Oblast through Voznesensk. Is this a realistic scenario, and how significant is the risk that they will manage to break into Odesa Oblast?
A: Yes, that was in their original plans. But let's say they missed their chance to do so back in March. So now it will be complicated for them; they will suffer heavy losses of personnel and equipment. They are already morally very frazzled and want to flee. From their conversations, we hear that they have already started looking for air mattresses and rubber boats instead of washing machines and microwave ovens. They are getting ready to flee behind the Dnipro River.
Q: And what about the bridge on the dam across the Kakhovka Reservoir? What to do there, because it is a critical engineering structure, and it seems to me that to damage it is dangerous?
A: This bridge has already been hit, but it is challenging to shoot it because there are critical facilities there. If we hit them, we could hit the dam gates. So it's an exceptional job. But I think this bridge will soon be damaged enough that they can't move their reserves over it. As soon as the reserves are cut off -- "Welcome to Ukraine [said in English]" -- we will beat them and drive them out.
Q: In the Zaporizhzhia region, Gauleiter [ED: interesting use of that term] Balitsky has already signed an "order" to hold a "referendum". Do you know if something like this is planned in the Kherson region?
A: Their FSB service members are discussing that they can not use the same scenario in Kherson as they did in Crimea. They already recognize this as a fact. And they are already preparing for some other events because this particular scenario does not work for them. The people of Kherson are very pro-Ukrainian and resist. They do not give them a chance to implement this scenario with the "referendum" and the "Russian world". Therefore, I think in Kherson, the referendum scenario will definitely not succeed.
Q: So they will hardly be able to hold it in Kherson on September 11?
A: I'm 100% sure that they will not.
Q: Can we liberate Crimea militarily?
A: Yes. We will liberate it militarily. No one has given up on it. Crimea is Ukraine; it's our land. Our people are there, who are still forced to live under occupation. No one gave Russia the right to come, take a piece of land and say, "this is mine. We will reclaim Crimea, just as we will reclaim Kherson, Lugansk, and Donetsk.
Q: Is it necessary to destroy the Crimean bridge to do so?
A: Yes, this is a necessary measure to deprive them of the ability to provide reserves and reinforce their troops from Russian territory.
Q: How critical is our arms shortage now? What kind of weapons do we lack for counteroffensive and offensive operations and the liberation of our territories?
A: Unfortunately, the military assistance our Western partners have promised us is provided in small batches, making it very difficult for us to conduct offensive operations. [ED: While it is true that supplies can't possibly arrive fast enough, that sounds a little like disinformation.] So I think that as soon as we receive the complete package of this assistance, our counteroffensive actions will be swift.
Q: Can Ukraine end the war through negotiations, making certain compromises, or will everything be decided exclusively on the battlefield until we reach the borders of 1991?
A: We have already passed the point of no return after [atrocities at] Irpen and Bucha. Any negotiations concerning the surrender of some of our territory -- all the military, all the population understand that we can not do this categorically. If we do that, we will shift this war onto the shoulders of our children. If we leave the enemy even a piece of land, he will come back home, draw some conclusions and attack again in six or eight years. So we need to defend all the territory. We need to take control of Ukraine's borders and not leave them a single piece of our land.
Q: How long do you think this war can go on?
A: I wouldn't want to make predictions. But if we have the amount of weaponry that was promised to us, that we need, then I think next spring, we will be celebrating victory.
END_QUOTE
Marchenko is a big guy with a good-humored demeanor, clearly admired by his troops -- they likely call him "Papa Bear" or something like that. Online comments on this interview gave General Marchenko points for "weapons-grade trolling" of the Russians. The war remains painful, but it does make a big difference to have the psychological upper hand over an adversary. A poll of Ukrainians showed 98% of them were sure Ukraine will win the war, and over 90% backed Zelenskyy. More than half seriously, Ukrainians on social media are already promoting "Summer Beach Party Crimea 2023".
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: Donald Trump is in big trouble. True, that's been the case since 6 January 2021, but now it's more specific: the Feds raided his Mar-a-Lago resort / estate to haul off boxes of secret documents he wasn't supposed to have there. Compared to all the other trouble he's facing, even that shouldn't seem like a big deal -- but suddenly, Trump and his MAGA fans are of course outraged.
The denialism has been loud and angry, with flaming attacks on the FBI and the DOJ -- a Republican candidate in New York saying that Attorney General Merrick Garland "should be executed". There was concern until recently that the Democrats were unlikely to do well in the fall midterm elections, but that was nonsense: right now, MAGA candidates in Senate races are lagging badly, and the House races are likely skewed in the same way.
In the meantime, President Joe Biden is rallying. As discussed last week, he's scored a major legislative victory, the economy is stabilizing, and fuel prices are steadily dropping. I take a walk in the morning five days a week, to the neighborhood shopping mall and back, and added a dogleg to the filling station so I could check fuel prices -- down to about $3.80 USD a gallon, still high but not so bad. Lurking in the background is the reality that Papa Joe is leading the USA to a devastating military victory against Russia. Few notice that right now, but once the Orcs are run out of Ukraine, excitement is likely to be running hot.
Papa Joe doesn't worry much about the sniping. During the primary campaign in 2020, he was lagging Bernie Sanders at the outset, but he shrugged, rallied, and then blew Bernie's doors off. He doesn't seem to be sweating it much now, either.
* An article from NEWSTATESMAN.com ("The Truth About Russia's Rotten Economy" by Will Dunn, 19 August 2022) examined the state of Russia's economy, through the lens of Russian economist Sergei Guriev. Versed in physics and math, he gravitated towards using math to model economic processes, doing postdoc research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, becoming a professor at the New Economic School in Moscow in 1998. He acquired influence, which did not endear him to Vladimir Putin; after escalating harassment, Guriev left Russia for Paris, to become a professor of economics at Sciences Po, France's leading university for social sciences. He also became chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development in London.
Russia appears to be weathering extensive Western sanctions handily -- but like everything else in Russia, appearances are deceptive, and the story is complicated. The government in Moscow can gloss over defaulting on its debt, according to Guriev, because a default only impairs Russia's ability to raise money in financial markets. That isn't an issue to the Kremlin, Guriev saying: "Russia is a toxic partner. Nobody wants to lend to Russia."
The government can also point to energy sales that give the Russia a healthy account surplus, though there's trouble down the road. A plan to embargo 90% of Russian oil imports to the EU by the end of the year will be significant, Guriev says, but it is still months away and until it is implemented, "it's actually good for Putin, because an oil embargo in December raises oil prices today". This is why a price cap on Russian oil and gas, agreed by G7 leaders in July, is vital: not only because it would reduce the market value of Russian oil before the embargo, but because it would affect how much India and China will pay for Russian energy.
Another seeming sign of Russia's strength is a strong rouble. Guriev says this is actually a consequence of Western sanctions. The reason the rouble's exchange value is high is that Russian businesses can't import much: no software, no semiconductors, bearings, jet engines or car parts. Even products that aren't sanctioned aren't available, because Western companies don't want to be seen doing business with a thug regime. The strong rouble exists only because people don't want to buy roubles with dollars, Guriev saying: "It's not a sign of a stronger economy. It's a side effect of something which really hurts Russia."
Putin is also taking a huge economic risk with his policy of "gas blackmail", trying to press against Europe by throttling gas supplies. The problem for Putin is that reducing the flow of gas not only reduces money coming back to Russia, but also gives customers an incentive to find alternatives to Russian gas, Russia losing those customers over the longer term. In the meantime, Russia's industrial output is cratering, Guriev saying:
QUOTE:
The number of cars produced in May 2022 was 30 times lower than the number of cars produced in May 2021. This is something which you can tell much more than a default. A friend of mine has joked that we are going back to the 1980s, where you wait for your Lada for decades.
END_QUOTE
Guriev believes that Russia, in the face of ever-growing woes, is moving from a "spin dictatorship" to a dictatorship of fear. Spin dictators preserve a "narrative of competence" on the economy to maintain their popularity. People do vote for spin dictators, although perhaps not in the volumes the dictators claim. Such leaders are also heavily reliant on corruption, however, which creates only narrow and unstable economic growth, if any at all. Everything starts to break down; to maintain the pretence, ever more repressive measures are needed.
Guriev worries that the West will soften on Putin and lean towards accommodation, which would be a disaster:
QUOTE:
It's a bit like 1938. We know that Vladimir Putin, if he is pacified, is pacified only temporarily. So if he wins this war, that means that there'll be a new war. And in that sense, if you don't agree to pay this cost now, you will have to pay a much higher cost in the future.
END_QUOTE
Guriev may be exaggerating the risk. Putin is losing the war, it's steadily getting worse for him by the month. As long as Ukraine, the USA, and NATO are winning, they won't soften. The Ukraine War will have widespread consequences -- one of the major ones being that Western nations have learned the risks of economic reliance on authoritarian states like Russia and China. How well they meet that challenge is another question.
* Back in February, I tried to sign up with the government-backed Id.Me online ID validation service, so I could access my Internal Revenue Service and Social Security accounts. It was a fiasco, the system being so overloaded by people trying to get in as to be inaccessible. I decided to try again in the late summer.
That time arrived, so I tried again. I succeeded, but it was not fun, being sent in circles, repeatedly being forced to upload copies of my personal documents, and having my video interview session broken once -- thanks to fumbling with my smartphone, which I was using as a webcam through the Droidcam app. I'd had to go to a video interview because the self-validation procedure didn't work; the system's attempts to match my face to a selfie via Droidcam failed. I finally realized that I needed to take the selfie using my smartphone, in exactly the same way as the scan was performed. However, the system wouldn't let me try to self-validate again.
I was relieved when the interview completed, but I had validated for IRS access; I asked the interviewer if my SSC access would work as well. The interviewer, apparently stumped by the question, got defensive and said NO -- I had to validate again. I got a bit agitated, that being absurd. I didn't believe it, it made no sense; I extricated myself from the conversation, and promptly logged in to both the IRS and SSC.
Next, I sign up for SSC retirement payments. I don't turn 70, at which time I get max payment, until early next year, but it takes a bit of time to process. I don't really need the money very much; I think I'll spend a chunk of it backing Ukraine reconstruction once the Orcs are driven out. I'll probably have my benefits cut later, presuming SSC finally is reformed, but I don't worry about that.
* As discussed in an article from JANES.com ("Saab Launches New Deployable 5G Network System" by Olivia Savage, 22 February 2022), the Saab company of Sweden has announced the introduction of the firm's "DeployNet" -- a 5G ruggedized tactical secure broadband communication system. According to SAAB:
QUOTE:
DeployNet is a mission-ready deployable tactical 5G/LTE infrastructure providing a wireless network with high-capacity bandwidth in a flexible end-to-end solution built for the most challenging environments. ... It is scalable both in terms of user numbers and system range to provide a network for up to 6,500 users simultaneously, with a typical operation area of 100 km^2 per system -- multiple frequency bands available.
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DeployNet, as its name implies, permits the quick deployment of a tactical network that supports voice and data communications, including real-time video streaming. The system consists of a core network, a radio access network, mast units, end-user equipment, and power supply. The system was developed in collaboration with partners in the UAE, with a number of potential customers interested in it.
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: 24 August marked Ukraine's Independence Day, the country having become independent in 1991. There was no mass celebration, there being worries of Russian attacks, with the occasion only marked by displays of broken Russian tanks and other vehicles on the streets of Kyiv. There were sympathetic demonstrations in the Baltic States, with a number of Soviet-era monuments demolished.
Russian activity was not actually out of the ordinary, but that was bad enough: there were strikes at Ukrainian cities, with a train station hit in Eastern Ukraine. 25 people were killed, 50 injured. In the meantime, the US State Department and Yale University announced that satellite imagery revealed at least 21 detention camps in Russian-occupied Ukraine, with suggestions of mass graves at some of them. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the size of the Russian Army would be increased -- leading to hoots of derision outside Russia, since the Russians haven't been able to obtain enough warm bodies so far, and aren't able to equip them. It is believed that stockpiles of Russian long-range missiles are critically depleted.
The USA celebrated Ukraine Independence Day by authorizing a $3 billion USD military aid package to Ukraine, items including six NASAMS air-defense systems, hundreds of thousands of 155-millimeter rounds and other ammunition, laser-guided rockets and launchers, counter-artillery radars, and drones. That makes more than $13.5 billion USD in military aid to Ukraine since January 2021, and $15.5 billion USD since 2014.
In the meantime, American President Joe Biden is on a roll, implementing a debt-forgiveness program for student loans. It was a big but definitely restrained program, not close to simply erasing the debt -- but it was accompanied by loud complaints from the Right. The White House was prepared for the complaints, being quick to point to forgiveness of large pandemic-relief loans taken out by offending Members of Congress.
Biden's public-approval ratings are climbing rapidly. One of the keys is that West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who had been stalling Biden's agenda, has finally decided to come in for a landing, having accomplished whatever it was he was trying to do -- which isn't easy to figure out. Expect more action when Congress returns from summer recess on 6 September.
* With midterm elections coming up, noise about "stolen elections" is getting louder -- with voting by mail accused of being particularly prone to election fraud. We Coloradans find that particularly annoying, since voting by mail has been the norm for years, and it hasn't been troublesome.
As reported in an article from THE FORT COLLINS COLORADAN newspaper, universal voting by mail voting was introduced in 2013, with every registered voter receiving a ballot to the mailing address provided on their voter registration. By the 2020 election, more than 93% of Colorado's registered voters returned their ballots by mail. Ballots are sent out at least 22 days before election day, and can be returned by mail, or shoved in a drop box. It is required that citizens show ID when registering, or voting at a polling place.
There's also an absentee voting scheme for active military personnel and other Colorado state voters, but it's something of a different program. Fraud is negligible; the Heritage Fund, a conservative research and education institution, tracks voter fraud cases nationwide, and has documented only 15 cases in Colorado, going back to 2005.
Colorado is one of at least 21 states that restore voting rights when an inmate is released from incarceration. Additionally, people in jail awaiting sentencing or on parole are also eligible to vote in Colorado. In 2020, two Denver jails even had in-person voting centers set up so eligible inmates could vote in person.
* THE DAILY SHOW's Michael Kosta zeroed in Trump Administration officials shilling their memoirs, with Kosta clearly enjoying himself:
QUOTE:
KOSTA: During an Oval Office briefing, we learned that the president did not know the difference between Washington DC and Washington State. It was concerning. And a cabinet member approached me afterward to ask if we should invoke the 25th amendment, but then lunch arrived, and it was PF CHANGS, and to be totally honest, I forgot all about it.
KOSTA: The president did want to use the Navy to scour the ocean for Osama bin Laden's corpse, because he, quote, "wanted to use it as an epic Halloween decoration." He did say: "Can we release bees into China?" I didn't even know what that meant.
KOSTA: So I told him: "Even if you could arm a pigeon, would that really scare North Korea?" I thought: "The public needs to know about this right now!" -- which is why I'm releasing this book right now, three years after it happened.
KOSTA: I had to be the adult in the room. Did I know the president was committing an act of treason? Of course. It was stunning. And then I realized that ACT OF TREASON would be an incredible title for my book.
KOSTA: I said: "Mr. President, you cannot nuke an Olive Garden." And that's when he fired me.
KOSTA: I saw the president commit more crimes every day than I thought was possible. He exhibited no knowledge of any topic. He refused to read. He was the most dangerous person to ever hold the office, and I saw it with my own eyes.
INTERVIEWER: Will you support him in 2024?
KOSTA: Well, yeah. It's either him or a Democrat, so of course.
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* As discussed in an article from JANES.com ("General Atomics Reveals Gambit Unmanned Aircraft" by Gareth Jennings, 03 March 2022), the American General Atomics company has made a name for itself with its Predator and follow-on Reaper drones. The firm is now working on a new drone to follow the Reaper in turn.
The "Gambit" drone is being offered for the US Air Force "Off-Boarding Sensing Station (OBSS)" program, with GA competing against an offering from Kratos -- both firms having been awarded development contracts. Gambit is not seen as a production item, at least not yet, the company calling it an "advanced concept aircraft", featuring AI-flavored software:
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GA-ASI's software and integration systems will support detection and analysis, and provide users with the highest-quality intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance ever possible from an unmanned aircraft. On point out ahead of US Air Force tactical aircraft, Gambit will also be able to sense and track targets of interest, and distribute that information across the battlespace.
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Concept illustrations from GA show a stealthy drone with turbofan propulsion. It is not clear if the Gambit will have a secondary attack capability.
* As discussed in an article from NEWSCIENTIST.com ("Most Precise Atomic Clock Shows Einstein's General Relativity Is Right" by Alex Wilkins, 16 February 2022), the University of Colorado Boulder JILA laboratory -- a collaboration between the university and the US National Institute of Standards & Technology, the name once meaning "Joint Institute For Laboratory Astrophysics" -- has developed an atomic clock of unprecedented precision, and used it for a test of Einstein's general theory of relativity.
JILA's Tobias Bothwell and his colleagues separated hundreds of thousands of strontium atoms into "pancake-shaped" blobs of 30 atoms. They used optical light to trap the atoms into a vertical stack 1 millimeter high; then they shined a laser on the stack, and measured the scattered light with a high-speed camera, with the wavelength of the emission from the strontium atoms being used as a time reference.
According to general relativity, clocks run slower the deeper they are in a gravity well. The stack of strontium atoms was vertical, meaning time ran more slowly at the bottom of the stack than at top -- exactly 10E-19 of a second slower, to be precise, with a certainty of 21 decimal places. Earlier measurements of this "redshift" in wavelength used multiple clocks; this was the first to use a single clock.
Bothwell says this atomic clock design could eventually be used to measure gravitational waves in space or the possible ways that dark matter couples to ordinary matter -- as well as having uses in more practical areas, such as improving accuracy for the Global Positioning System (GPS), which uses the precise timing of atomic clocks to calculate distance.
Another research group at the University of Wisconsin in Madison has also come up with an innovative atomic clock set-up. Shimon Kolkowitz and his colleagues used comparisons between six different strontium atomic clocks to measure a second. This comparative model, known as a "multiplex clock", allowed the to use a less stable laser than the JILA group's clock, but still achieve a level of precision even better than that obtained by the JILA team.
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