* This is an archive of my own online blog and notes, with weekly entries collected by month.
* THE WEEK THAT WAS: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas delivered a speech in Sydney, Australia, on cyber-security, suggesting that the war in Ukraine was providing big lessons on cyber-defense. She began with:
QUOTE:
Nearly two years ago, I had the opportunity to chair the first official UN Security Council meeting on cyber-security. Almost everyone at the meeting stressed what all states have already agreed: international law, including the UN Charter in its entirety, applies in cyberspace. Russia did not.
END_QUOTE
There was a perception before the war broke out that the fighting would be intense in cyberspace -- but it was only really intense on the battlefield, with the cyberwar muted. Nonetheless, it was still going on:
QUOTE:
... there are four things of which we need to take note, and four things all free nations must do.
END_QUOTE
In response to the threats, democratic nations need to be prepared to continue to deal with cyber-warfare after the shooting stops, and invest in defensive measures. That implies developing new methods and setting up new systems. The bad actors need to be identified, neutralized, and held accountable. Finally, cyber-defense needs to become a function of democratic society as a whole:
QUOTE:
... we must build connections beyond current institutional limitations. It is clear that security for liberal democracies can no longer happen in silos. We must set standards with those we can trust, especially as new technologies like artificial intelligence, 5G and quantum computing become realities. Governments must better link with counterparts in other countries, as well as building partnerships with businesses and civil society.
Tyrannies like Russia will keep trying to turn technology into a tool of oppression and a means to destabilize free societies. Our job is to prevent that, to help Ukraine win the war and to build solid alliances. We must ensure impunity does not prevail in any sphere, and cyberspace is no exception.
END_QUOTE
* This last week, President Joe Biden announced, as expected, that he was running for re-election -- with, also as expected, a loud chorus of complaints that he's too old to take on a second term.
Personally, that doesn't worry me at all. The Biden Administration is not a one-man show; it's a collective effort, with Joe Biden as the chairman. I have little doubt that, if his cabinet tells him he can't do the job any more, he will promptly resign. I suspect many of his critics know that, and their real problem is that Vice-President Kamala Harris will become president, and they don't like that idea.
Incidentally, there was also a "Take Your Kids To Work" day at the White House this last week, with Joe Biden showing off his new Secret Service detail -- four kids in black, with shades and earphones. Joe Biden just loves kids. Biden then followed up that act with a deft performance at the White House Correspondent's Dinner, with Vice President Kamala Harris and both their spouses in attendance:
QUOTE:
... Let me start on a serious note. Jill, Kamala, Doug, and I, , and members of our administration are here to send a message to the country and, quite frankly, to the world: the free press is a pillar -- maybe the pillar -- of a free society, not the enemy.
... Folks, I know a lot has changed in the press. I've had a lot of conversations with a lot of you. This is not your father's press from 20 years ago. No, I'm serious. And you all know it better than I do. But still, it is absolutely consequential and essential.
After all, I believe in the First Amendment -- not just because my good friend Jimmy Madison wrote it. [LAUGHTER]
In a lot of ways, this dinner sums up my first two years in office. I'll talk for 10 minutes, take zero questions, and cheerfully walk away. [LAUGHTER]
Yeah, I know, I just announced my reelection campaign. ... And, look, I get that age is a completely reasonable issue. It's on everybody's mind. And everyone -- by "everyone" I mean the New York Times. Headline: "Biden's advanced age is a big issue. Trump's, however, is not." [LAUGHTER]
Sorry, that was the NEW YORK TIMES PITCHBOT. I apologize. [LAUGHTER]
... I want everybody to have fun tonight, but please be safe. If you find yourself disoriented or confused, it's either you're drunk or Marjorie Taylor Greene. [LAUGHTER]
... I love NPR [LEANS INTO THE MICROPHONE] because they whisper into the mic like I do. [LAUGHTER] But not everybody loves NPR. Elon Musk tweeted that it should be defunded. Well, the best way to make NPR go away is for Elon Musk to buy it. [LAUGHTER]
This dinner is one of the two great traditions in Washington. The other one is underestimating me and Kamala. Well, the truth is we really have a record to be proud of. Vaccinated the nation. Transformed the economy. Earned historic legislative victories and midterm results. But the job isn't finished. I mean -- it is finished for Tucker Carlson. [LAUGHTER] ... We added 12 million jobs, and that's just counting the lawyers who defended [Trump].
I had a lot of Ron DeSantis jokes ready, but Mickey Mouse beat the hell out of me and got there first. [LAUGHTER] Now, look -- can't be too rough on the guy. After his reelection as governor, he was asked if he had a mandate. He said, "Hell no, I'm straight." [LAUGHTER]
... Look, you all keep reporting my approval rating is at 42 percent. But I think you don't know this: Kevin McCarthy called me and asked me, "Joe, what the hell is your secret?" [LAUGHTER]
... Look, it's great the cable news networks are here tonight. MSNBC owned by NBC Universal. Fox News owned by Dominion Voting Systems. [LAUGHTER] Last year, your favorite Fox News reporters were able to attend because they were fully vaccinated and boosted. This year, with that $787 million settlement, they're here because they couldn't say no to a free meal. [LAUGHTER] And hell, I'd call Fox honest, fair, and truthful, but then I could be sued for defamation. [LAUGHTER]
... As I said last year at this dinner, a poison is running through our democracy and parts of the extreme press. The truth buried by lies, and lies living on as truth.
Lies told for profit and power. Lies of conspiracy and malice repeated over and over again, designed to generate a cycle of anger, hate, and even violence. A cycle that emboldens history to be buried, books to be banned, children and families to be attacked by the state, and the rule of law and our rights and freedoms to be stripped away. And where elected representatives of the people are expelled from statehouses for standing for the people.
... At this inflection point in history, let us commit that we'll be a nation that will embrace light over darkness, truth over lies, and finally, finally, finally restore the soul of the nation.
... I'm going to turn this over to [comedian Roy Wood JR]. Roy, the podium is yours. I'm going to be fine with your jokes, but I'm not sure about Dark Brandon. [PUTS ON SHADES / APPLAUSE] All yours, pal.
END_QUOTE
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: Armed Forces Ukraine appears to be on the threshold of jumping off on their long-awaited spring offensive against the Russian occupation of Eastern Ukraine, with strikes being performed against high-value targets all along the battle line. In the meantime, in Russia itself Ukrainian drones have set fuel storage facilities on fire -- with, it seems, saboteurs contributing to the destruction.
Exact details of anything are hard to come by, being cloaked in disinformation. However, it was released that a Patriot PAC-3 anti-ballistic missile (ABM) did shoot down a Russian Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile -- a remarkable achievement, Patriot having only arrived in Ukraine. The PAC-3 ABM is not particularly new, reinforcing the belief that Russian weapons like the Kinzhal are not as impressive as that they had been made out to be by Russian propaganda. It appears that, although the air raids haven't been stopped by any means, they have been seriously blunted, with Russian kamikaze drones almost always being shot down.
Speculation on the intent of the offensive is all over the map, with the diversity of opinion encouraged by the authorities. One popular suggestion is that the AFU will advance to the shattered city of Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov, cutting the Russian occupation of the Don Basin region in half, with the southern half isolated. That done, Crimea would be easily isolated, by destroying the Kerch Strait Bridge, and could not withstand a determined offensive, aided by guerrillas. Even if the Russians were not evicted from northern Donbas, would Putin be able to survive the loss of Crimea. All this is conjecture; we'll have to see what happens. "And so it begins."
* Conjecture is of course running wild, with many commentaries on the failures of management of the war on the NATO side -- including complaints that NATO was not pro-active enough at the start, being too slow to provide support. A blogger named Branislav Slantchev wrote an essay showing exactly why this view is mistaken, being presented in a brutally edited-down version here:
QUOTE:
The invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and the American response to it remain a source of controversy. Why did the USA seem to abandon Ukraine on the eve of the Russian invasion, only to come back roaring a few days later? Wouldn't it have been better to warn Putin of the response that actually took place? Possibly he would have had second thoughts? The answer to both questions is NO, with reference to the last century to help explain why.
Consider the question of whether Neville Chamberlain was wise when he engineered the Munich Agreement with Hitler in 1938, abandoning Czechoslovakia to German demands, and leading to the dismemberment of the country. The popular view of Chamberlain today echoes that of Winston Churchill at the time, with Churchill saying that Chamberlain had been "given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war." Churchill was correct: Czechoslovakia ceased to exist, and Hitler invaded Poland a year later, setting World War II in motion.
However, in 1938 Chamberlain had no benefit of hindsight, no real knowledge of the future. Hitler was making an argument for his position that could seem reasonable: he was trying to protect the German-speaking minority in Czechoslovakia, and only proposed limited measures for doing so. Could Britain, then in a state of poor military preparedness, have justified going to war in that case?
Churchill warned that Hitler was lying, but Churchill had a reputation as a loudmouth and a hothead. Hitler's destruction of an independent Czechoslovakia and then his invasion of Poland proved Churchill right, with Britain declaring war -- even though Britain was hardly in a better position to fight a war in 1939.
The situation in the 2022 crisis was not completely different from that in 1938. To be sure, US intelligence had informed President Joe Biden that the odds of an invasion were high, but the rest of the world had at most selective access to US intelligence. The Russians were loudly denying any intent to invade up to the hour they did it, and Putin's forces had been camping out at Ukraine's border for months without doing anything. An invasion of Ukraine was far more ambitious than any of Putin's other military adventures.
Given the context, neither NATO nor the European Union could conclude that there was any basis for taking drastic action. Putin was making every effort to play up his goals as reasonable, and the EU was still dependent on Russian gas supplies. Joe Biden could not, under the circumstances, convince the EU that the threat was great and imminent. In addition, the USA could not give Putin any more than the most general warnings, since the response that would be made was dependent on Russian actions.
The USA therefore took no overt action before 24 February, instead making secret plans that would go into effect immediately once the hammer fell. When it did, Putin's intent became clear to everyone involved -- eliminating all ambiguity, guaranteeing unified NATO / EU support of the fight. The battle plan went into action, with an airlift of light smart munitions -- Stingers, Javelins, NLAWS -- into Ukraine, with plans being laid for longer-term supply of heavier weapons that could not be so quickly delivered, with those plans adjustable as needs would dictate.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine was blunted with astonishing speed, the big Russian war machine proving surprisingly inept. Nonetheless, Putin pushed on against Ukraine, fanatically redoubling his efforts, knowing he could not afford to lose the war. The idea that Putin would have been deterred by a more specific threat is ridiculous: he would have discounted it, and proceeded exactly as he did. Putin wanted the war and will continue it until he is no longer in a position to do so.
END_QUOTE
Incidentally to the war, when it appeared that Vladimir Putin might attend the BRICS (Brazil Russia India China South Africa) summit in Gauteng, South Africa, South African authorities issued a public warning that he should not come. South Africa is a member of the International Criminal Court, the ICC has a warrant out for Putin's arrest, and so South African authorities would have to arrest him. That must have not gone over well with Putin.
* As discussed in an article from WIRED.com ("Microsoft's Security Copilot Sics ChatGPT on Security Breaches" by Lily Hay Newman, 20 March 2023), as of late the tech world has been excited about a new generation of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) tools, the leading edge being "ChatGPT" from OpenAI, a Microsoft-backed startup.
GAI is now having an impact on computer security. There has been work on software to protect computer systems from intrusion all along, but GAI promises to supercharge it. Microsoft, in partnership with OpenAI, has rolled out "Security Copilot", a high-level security field notebook that integrates system data and network monitoring from security tools such as Microsoft Sentinel and Defender, as well as third-party services.
Security Copilot can provide alerts, map out in both words and charts what may be going on within a network, and provide steps for investigation. Copilot tracks the history of its operations and generates summaries of activities, for auditing and to allow newcomers to an effort to get up to speed. It can automatically generate slides and other presentation materials for organizational communications.
Of course, Copilot includes access controls, so only authorized users can interact with the system -- and it can generate instructions and provide hints so users can be more efficient with it. If something Copilot is suggesting during an investigation is wrong or irrelevant, users can click the "Off Target" button to further train the system.
Security Copilot is mostly driven powered by OpenAI's ChatGPT-4 model, but Microsoft officials add that it also leverages Microsoft's security expertise. They comment that while machine learning security tools have been effective in specific domains -- notably "endpoint security", monitoring email or activity on individual computing nodes -- Security Copilot covers all aspects of security, dealing with the big picture.
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: As discussed in an article from ECONOMIST.com ("Will Japan Fight?", 10 May 2023), Japanese leadership has made it clear that Japan regards the defense of Taiwan against China as in Japan's interests, backing up American defense of the island. In the event of a crisis, according to Otsuka Taku of the Japanese Diet, or Parliament: "There's no way Japan won't be involved ... We will fight with the US."
However, exactly what that means remains deliberately hidden in "strategic ambiguity". The Japanese government has given no indication of being "all-in" on a Taiwan fight. If war comes, the USA will use forward bases in Japan to support the conflict, but will require the permission of the Japanese government. The government would be strongly inclined to grant permission, one Japanese ex-official saying: "If we don't say yes, the alliance is over."
The next decision for Japanese leadership would be commitment to Japanese action. It might not be difficult to provide non-combat support, such as providing fuel, medical care and logistical assistance. Traditionally, Japan's Self-Defense Forces could only fight if Japan itself were attacked. A law passed in 2015 also permits the use of force if another country is attacked and the Diet judges it "survival-threatening" for Japan. However, getting to that judgement would not be a simple matter.
Assuming that Japan did decide to fight, then the issue would become one of the appropriate way to do so. Unlike NATO member states, Japan is not set up to engage in combat along with US forces, with no command that links both their militaries together. There's no inherent unity as there is between the US and South Korea, where the forces answer to a single combined command boasting the mantra "fight tonight".
Japan does plan to create permanent joint headquarters, but that may take years. At present there's little infrastructure to support it, and there's not much public support for a closely-knit command.
Polling finds robust support for the alliance in Japan, but the public is opposed to a more active military role for the SDF. One survey offered respondents choices for how to react to a conflict between America and China: 27% said the SDF should not work with America at all; 56% said it should limit itself to rear-area support; and just 11% said Japan should fight alongside America.
Left out of these considerations is the prospect of Japan providing weapons to Taiwan, such as cruise missiles. Japan is not an arms exporter and has barriers to being one -- but if there's a will, there should be a way. How much will Japanese have for helping the defense of Taiwan remains to be seen.
* A recent leader essay in ECONOMIST.com blamed America's inflation on Joe Biden, for having issued stimulus checks in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and passed major spending bills. The argument was misguided and annoying -- as an essay from VOX.com from last year ("Is The Stimulus To Blame For High Inflation?" by Madeline Ngo, 17 October 2022) pointed out. The difficulty with blaming Biden for the recent inflation is that it is a global phenomenon; the USA, although above the median, is not close to the top either. The conclusion is that Biden's policies had, at most, a limited effect on inflation, and it is impossible to persuasively pick out a causal relationship.
It should be noted that Ronald Reagan's first year in office was a time of high inflation, running at 9%, with inflation in subsequent years dropping to an average of slightly less than 4%. It was 7% in Biden's first year, dropping to 6.5% in the second year, and is now dropping below 5%. The current inflation was caused by a "forcing function" -- the pandemic, which disrupted businesses and particularly supply chains. The subsequent Ukraine war also disrupted global food distribution. The damage has largely been fixed, and now the challenge is mostly psychological, to convince businesses they shouldn't raise prices without cause. In any case, inflation is on the way out; once it goes away, business is likely to return to booming. However, we'll see.
* Armed Forces Ukraine are poised to begin their spring offensive against the Russian occupation, with one sign being release of deliberately bewildering comments by the government. Nobody really knows when things are going to happen.
In the meantime, AFU has been striking back in Bakhmut, the target of persistent Russian offensive drives since August 2022, with the Russian Wagner mercenaries playing a major role in the fighting. The AFU was clearly reluctant to commit any more resources to the defense of Bakhmut than necessary, to make sure that offensive preparations wouldn't be disrupted. AFU troops were gradually forced back, inflicting heavy losses on the Russians, though suffering heavily themselves.
It is clear the AFU has now put in reinforcements, with Russian forces being driven back from the town. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has taken to releasing videos, complaining about a lack of support and incompetence at the top. It is not so clear why the AFU decided to throw in resources, with the Ukrainian spring offensive about to begin. My own suspicion is that the Ukrainians want to crush Wagner and Prigozhin for good, taking a major piece off the playing board and throwing chaos into the already-chaotic Russian command. Prigozhin, it seems, is unlikely to be around in 2024. [ED: He was killed in a plane crash on 23 August 2023 -- it appears somebody put a bomb on the plane.]
* A report from the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) in Switzerland says that a research team has developed a new "dye-sensitized solar call (DSC)" with unprecedented efficiency.
DSCs are not new, but the EPFL cells are well in advance of earlier efforts, capable of extracting light energy from much of the visible light spectrum, Their conversion efficiency runs to about 30%, and they have maintained stability over 500 hours of testing. That's not a lot of time, but it suggests they can hold out for much longer. The new transparent cells are also flexible and can be fabricated with conventional roll-printing techniques.
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: As discussed in an article from BBC.com ("Zelensky Dominates Summit As G7 Leaders Call Out China" by Tessa Wong, 20 May 2023), the G7 group of developed nations met in Hiroshima, Japan, this last week, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy making a surprise visit on a French government aircraft.
Zelenskyy's arrival prompted G7 leaders to issue a statement early -- in which they condemned Russia, and also issued veiled warnings to Beijing. Less confrontationally, the G7 leaders extended invitations to several emerging economies in the "Global South", as well as India and Australia.
Zelenskyy's visit was apparently a last-minute improvisation that disrupted the typically plodding nature of a G7 summit, with the Ukrainian president dominating the scene. Nobody there seemed bothered by that; while sanctions against Russia have had mixed effect, world leaders literally standing shoulder to shoulder with Zelenskyy sent a firm message to Moscow that they mean business.
Besides addressing key topics such as nuclear non-proliferation and climate change, the joint final statement of the G7 talked about their commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, which they tried to demonstrate by inviting countries such as Indonesia, India, and the Cook Islands. They stressed their support of South East Asian and Pacific countries, which have been heavily courted by Beijing, and called for a "free and open Indo-Pacific" -- verbiage used in the past in response to China's territorial claims in the South China Sea. More importantly, the leaders took a strong stance against what they called "economic coercion" -- that is, China using trade to bully other countries -- and called for China to "play by international rules".
Stressing their commitment to "economic resilience", the G7 leadership promised to take steps to "reduce excessive dependencies in our critical supply chains", meaning weaning themselves off of trade with China. However, they also said they wanted "constructive and stable relations" with China, adding that their polices were "not designed to harm China, nor do we seek to thwart China's economic progress and development" -- possibly added at the suggestion of the Japanese, who do not want to unnecessarily provoke Beijing.
Nonetheless, the Chinese foreign ministry immediately expressed "strong dissatisfaction" with the G7's joint statement and complained to the summit organizer Japan, with a foreign ministry spokesman saying: "The G7 insisted on manipulating China-related issues, smearing, and attacking China." The Japanese hadn't replied at last notice, but will likely politely tell the Chinese to hike off. They don't want to provoke the Chinese, but don't take kindly to being bullied, either. Besides, it places Beijing in an awkward position to act like a bully and then complain about being called a bully.
* In other news concerning the Ukraine War, Donald Trump announced that he could end the conflict in 24 hours, saying: "I want everybody to stop dying. They're dying. Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying." When queried by a reporter during a recent visit to Rome, Zelenskyy was unimpressed, saying that when Trump was president ...
QUOTE:
... there was no full-scale invasion, but there was a war. There was already a Russian aggression. Crimea was occupied, part of Donbas was occupied. I'm not sure if he was deeply involved into this matter, but, nevertheless, he did not solve this issue. I'm not sure it was a priority for him. I am not accusing him of anything. But we have the facts. And we have to look at them.
END_QUOTE
Zelenskyy is personally familiar with Trump, and knows better than to think he's a serious person. In the meantime, the war drags on. This last week, Russia launched more missile strikes, notably performing an attack on Ukraine's new Patriot surface-to-air missile sites with a wave of six Kinzhal (Dagger) air-launched ballistic missiles. The Patriots shot all six of them down. Although a diesel generator was apparently damaged, Vladimir Putin was nonetheless handed a stinging defeat. Incidentally, videos of the Patriot launches circulated online -- with Ukrainian security reacting angrily, saying that the videos helped the Russians and would not be tolerated. Ukrainian security is much tighter than it was a year ago, and much less is leaking out.
* In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis has been continuing his culture wars, though as of late he's been stumbling. Political pundit Rick Wilson, talking with MSNBC's Ali Velshi, suggested that DeSantis is not going anywhere in any hurry:
QUOTE:
AV: You tweeted the other day, Ron DeSantis is "the most overpriced stock in American politics." ... you know, I'm an economics guy, so when you say things like that, I pay attention. Talk to me about that. ... there's always a theory, that if Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump made it to a debate, Donald Trump would eat him alive, because Donald Trump eats a lot of people alive at these things. Ron DeSantis may be doing all the things necessary to be a presidential candidate -- but when we see him as an actual presidential candidate, a lot of people are going to be a little bit surprised.
RW: Ron DeSantis has a strange personal affect: he does not like to make eye contact, he does not like human beings. I guarantee you, that after this [recent] Iowa [campaign] trip, he's exhausted by having to pretend to be human for three days -- or two days, however long he was out there.
This is a guy who notoriously is short with people, he's unpleasant one-on-one, and the donors who have flocked to him now are squirrelly about him now, because they're starting to see he's kind of got a mean streak. And in American politics, a mean streak is not really a good thing. And voters are seeing that, I think, a little bit.
He's got all this mechanical "stuff" around him. That's the right thing to do, but even a great campaign can't save a bad candidate. A great campaign can sometimes, you know, pull one along -- but you've got to have a certain amount of felicity and grace and engagement with people, if you're gonna go run for the highest office in the land. And Ron DeSantis is gonna have to go places like New Hampshire, and sit in a diner with the Merrimac County state Republican committee-man for an hour, as this 79-year-old dude talks about the gold standard or whatever he's obsessed with.
And he can't just walk out! He can't just leave the room! So he's gonna have an interesting time of this. There are a lot of people in the donor class who've given him a lot of money; they look at him as an alternative to Trump. The legislative session in Florida was a wishlist for everything he wanted, and a lot of it turned out to be radioactive waste, like six-week abortion ban, this stupid war with Disney ...
Y'know, look, I have a short list of things I don't do, and one is I don't go to war with Bob Iger and Disney, it's like "a land war in Asia" ...
AV: ... Tom Nichols [a bright, hawkish curmudgeon mentioned here in the past] was on yesterday morning, saying: "It doesn't animate anybody." There's no Republican who gets up in the morning, saying: "YEAH ..."
RW: Nobody wakes up in the morning and goes: "Man, I HATE Disney! ... We gotta crush Disney! The rogue Disney!" So look ... I think DeSantis is, he's a smart guy, but he's narrowly smart. He's not a person with those gifts. I dislike Donald Trump in every conceivable aspect of his behavior, of his character, everything else -- but he has charisma. He engages people.
He has a sense of ... energy about him, which probably will end up in the primary debates coming out again, the base will rally back around him -- and look, I said this the other night -- you watch the way Donald Trump behaved in that [recent CNN] town hall, and I said to myself: "Good god, he's gonna tear Ron DeSantis's head off and kick it around like a soccer ball." This guy will go nowhere against him.
Now look, I remember in '16, a lot of Republicans -- Jeb, Marco, Ted, all of them -- they would go out like: "My speechwriters wrote me a funny zinger against Trump!" And they would go out like they thought they were gonna beat him, and he would just like, blow the whole room up.
END_QUOTE
Donald Trump won in 2016 because he was controlling a perfect storm against Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. The Republicans lost the next three elections. They have no alternative to Trump for 2024, with the sensible among them realizing they are facing a perfect storm much more brutal than the one that took down Hillary Clinton. By the time the election comes around, Donald Trump will be facing court dates, if he hasn't been convicted by that time, and only bizarro people will vote for him. There aren't remotely that many bizarros to elect him.
Exactly how this will play out remains to be seen. There remains the interesting possibility of Liz Cheney running on a separate ticket, which will split the GOP into two parts. However, nobody has any real clue about what will happen.
* As discussed in an article from NEWATLAS.com ("US Army Commissions 300-kW, Target-Tracking Laser Weapon" by Loz Blain, 27 October 2021), Boeing and General Atomics (GA) have been awarded a US Army contract to develop a new high-power solid-state laser air defense system, with a remarkable power output of 300 kilowatts.
Late in 2020, Boeing and GA teamed up to demonstrate a 100-to-250-kW-class laser weapon, to show the military GA's distributed-gain laser design was the solution to cooling problems that tend to impose severe limits on high-energy laser weapons. At the time Michael Perry, GA's VP for Lasers, said that the company's distributed gain system sits in a "Goldilocks zone" for solid-state lasers:
The US Army liked the solution, with the Boeing-GA team awarded a "Rapid Capabilities & Critical Technologies Office (RCCTO)" contract to prototype a 300-kW version of GA's laser, with Boeing's beam director and precision acquisition, tracking and pointing software integrated. It isn't clear if the laser system will be compact enough to be crammed into a pod for aircraft carriage, but it certainly will be suitable for carriage on trucks or warship.
Beyond this system, there's talk floating around of an "Ultra-Short Pulse Laser" system that would produce a staggering 5 terawatts of power, bursts as short as 30 femtoseconds, up to 50 times a second. We'll see what happens on that.
BACK_TO_TOP* THE WEEK THAT WAS: As discussed in an article from BBC.com ("Twitter Pulls Out Of Voluntary EU Disinformation Code" by Francesca Gillett, 27 May 2023), billionaire Elon Musk, having acquired the Twitter microblogging service, has made it a playground for trolls and bots. It wasn't great before he took over in October 2022, but now it's much worse.
Even before he took control, European Union officials warned him that the EU would take a dim view of his allowing Twitter to become a disinformation delivery platform. For now, the EU has a voluntary code for social media firms to follow; Musk has now publicly rejected the code.
Thierry Breton, the EU's internal market commissioner, warned Musk that new laws were coming and he would have to comply with them. Breton said: "Obligations remain. You can run but you can't hide." Twitter will be legally required to fight disinformation in the EU from 25 August, he said, adding: "Our teams will be ready for enforcement."
A number of other social media firms are signed up to the EU's disinformation code, including Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, as well as TikTok, Google, Microsoft and Twitch. The code was launched in June 2022, with the goal of preventing profiteering from disinformation and fake news, as well as increasing transparency and limiting infections of bots and fake accounts. Firms that sign the code can decide which pledges to make, such as cooperating with fact-checkers or tracking political advertising.
Under Musk's ownership, Twitter moderation has been effectively dismantled. Russian and Chinese state propaganda accounts are now thriving there -- but Musk says there is now "less misinformation rather than more" since he acquired Twitter, meaning he approves of the disinformation.
The EU has passed a Digital Services Act, which will go into effect by late summer. The law specifies that Twitter will have to have a mechanism for users to flag illegal content, act upon notifications "expeditiously", and put in measures to address the spread of disinformation. Musk is not noted for thinking things out, but he is faced with consequences, one European Commission official saying: "If he doesn't take the code seriously, then it's better that he quits."
* Concerning the G7 summit in Hiroshima a week ago, US President Joe Biden commented after it was closed that the meeting had led to an agreement on a united approach to China that called for diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on one country, while hinting that he would soon speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Biden told a press conference: "We're not looking to decouple from China. We're looking to de-risk and diversify our relationship with China." He said G7 nations were more unified than ever in terms of "resisting economic coercion together and countering harmful practices that hurt our workers."
The G7 leaders agreed that the goal was to "de-risk, not decouple" economic engagement with China, but the Chinese didn't think much of the nuance -- with China's embassy in Japan urging the G7 to stop "creating confrontation and division". Biden downplayed the negative reaction, saying that frigid relations with Beijing were likely to thaw, having been strained earlier in 2023 when the USA shot down a Chinese surveillance balloon.
Biden said: "We should have an open hotline." He added that he had agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia in 2022 to keep communications open, but everything changed after "this silly balloon that was carrying two freight cars worth of spying equipment." Biden says that's water under the bridge: "In terms of talking with them, I think you're going to see that thaw very shortly."
China's aggressive moves against Taiwan remain problematic, but Biden said there was a clear understanding among most of the allies that if China were to act unilaterally against Taiwan, there would be a response. He said: "We're not going to tell China what they can do, but in the meantime we're going to put Taiwan in a position where they can defend themselves."
This is the story of the Biden Administration's strategy for dealing with China: cooperation with the right hand, confrontation with the left. Some critics have slammed that approach as contradictory, but it's just a way of seeing which hand Beijing will choose. The fact that it seems to confuse the Chinese is all to the good.
* The US Internal Revenue Service has now announced that it launch a free, government-provided direct tax filing option next year, which could lead to the full-scale launch of an IRS filing system that would compete with private tax preparers.
The IRS said in a report to Congress that 72% of American taxpayers surveyed said they were "very interested in" or "somewhat interested in" using a government tool to electronically file their tax returns. The agency estimated that a new direct filing system would cost between about $65 million USD and $250 million USD a year to operate, depending on the complexity of returns accepted and the number of taxpayers using the system.
Plans for a free filing system have been criticized by Republicans in Congress as unneeded because private firms such as H&R Block and Intuit, maker of TurboTax, perform free filing with their software. House of Representatives Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, a Republican, attacked the e-filing study as another step in the Biden Administration's efforts to "supercharge" the IRS to harass taxpayers. Smith said in a statement: "Americans will be powerless when the IRS completely controls the tax filing process from start to finish."
However, Treasury official Laurel Blatchford said a free direct filing option could "potentially save taxpayers billions of dollars annually," because it may cost the IRS less than $10 USD per tax return filed, compared with about $40 now paid by taxpayers for simple returns handled by private firms. Treasury officials noted that all filing options would continue, including free e-file options from private firms and non-profit tax advocacy services, paid filing by tax preparers, and free paper filing to the IRS.
[ED: I was happy to hear this news. Every year, I buy a basic H&R Block package to make out my taxes, and have persistently wondered why I needed to so. Why not allow me to make out my taxes online? I have very simple tax returns and H&R Block gives me no benefit. It'll be a heavy hit to H&R Block and Intuit, but those are the breaks.]
[LATER: Ultimately, the Republicans shot it down.]
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