* This is an archive of my own online blog and notes, with weekly entries collected by month.
* SUN 25 FEB: In Ukraine War news, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy admitted that his country has lost 31,000 troops killed in the war with Russia. That is not a good thing, but it is a far smaller number than the Russian troops killed in the conflict. Zelenskyy did not confirm how many wounded there have been -- it is easy to guess that at least as many Ukrainian troops have been crippled and taken permanently out of action. Zelenskyy also said that "tens of thousands" of Ukrainian citizens have been killed, but added that they couldn't really be tallied until the war is over.
In related news, Ukrainian General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the military HUR intelligence service, says that tales of large numbers of Iranian and North Korean long-range missiles in Russian service are not backed up by his intelligence. Although the Iranians have stated they are shipping such missiles to Russia, they lie a lot, and Budanov says that story "does not correspond to reality." As far as North Korean missiles go, he says: "Several North Korean [missiles] were used, but to talk about extensive use ... does not correspond to reality."
At present, Russian President Vladimir Putin is crowing that he has the advantage in the war, but that appears to overstating his case. The Russians just lost another high-value A-50 airborne early warning aircraft, it appears to a long-range missile, with three of them taken out so far. Things are difficult for Ukraine at present, to be sure, but they may be exaggerated to help push through the political logjam on Ukraine War funding in the US Congress.
Incidentally, picking up the Cyrillic alphabet has paid off. Ukrainian military intelligence is often referred to as the "GUR" in the press, but it's really "HUR". The relevant Cyrillic symbol, which looks like an "L" flipped upside-down, corresponds to "G" in Russian, but to "H" in Ukrainian.
* WED 28 FEB: I was cruising the internet yesterday afternoon, and went to the wrong link from the Microsoft Edge browser -- to get a full-screen pop-up window and a robot voice saying things like: YOUR COMPUTER HAS BEEN LOCKED / WINDOWS SECURITY VIOLATION / DO NOT REBOOT YOUR COMPUTER -- and so on. I was startled but knew it was a scam, thinking: "Don't engage with it!"
I couldn't tab out of the window -- which screamed SCAM! -- so I did a CTRL-ALT-DEL to reboot. When Windows asked me if I wanted to reboot, I decided to back to Windows instead, knowing I could try to bail out again if I had to. I didn't need to, when I got back the trap window was gone. Funny, I used to see traps like that a lot, but that was a long time ago. I would think the trap got shut down, but I didn't check to find out.
* Today, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced he would step down as leader, though he would remain in the Senate. His move was widely interpreted as acknowledging that the GOP was unlikely to regain control of the Senate in the 2024 election. [ED: They did.]
Mitch is a devious person, so it's impossible to figure out what he's up to ... but I can't help but suspect that he realizes that his political career has been a complete bust. Which is how it will be described in the history books. Sad.
* AND SO ON: Having bailed out of X/Twitter, now I'm working to carve out a space on Spoutible. The big problem with Spoutible is that it's heavily focused on liberal politics and liberal arts -- neither of which I have any problem with, but they're not my core interests.
I got to thinking: "So why not push the things I'm interested in on Spoutible? Make it the environment I want it to be?" Now I post links about a half-dozen times a day on tech, miltech, the Ukraine War, and science, with a little liberal politics as well. I've only got about 50 followers right now, but there's a vacuum on Spoutible for the stuff I'm pushing, and I've got nowhere to go but up.
At last notice, in June 2023, Spoutable had almost a quarter of a million users -- and Spoutible users are all real users, bots not allowed. Can I get to a hundred followers? Sure. A thousand? Yeah, I think so. Ten thousand? Maybe. A hundred thousand? Not so sure. With only ten thousand, if I promote one of my ebooks, I should get about ten sales -- and even a modest number of sales raises my Amazon rankings. However, I have no idea how long it will take to get there.
* I got an Amazon Fire TV Cube for the TV in my living room a few years back. One of the fun things about it was that I bought a classic videogames package for it for a few bucks. I figured out how to use a game controller with the Cube, and got into the habit of playing ASTEROIDS every day after lunch. I got pretty good at it.
Unfortunately, the makers of the game decided to do an update, one of the things done being to make their version of ASTEROIDS more like the original arcade version. I could not then play it any more. The big problem was that the trackpad or joystick then controlled yaw LEFT or RIGHT -- which was fine -- but also controlled the thruster throttle with UP. Mixing the throttle in with the steering just did not work well.
I have a set of game controllers around the house, but none of them worked very well. I got to thinking my very nice 8BitDo Pro 2 controller would work, because I could reprogram the buttons on it -- for example, use one of the buttons on the bottom for UP / throttle. Since I was using my existing Pro 2 controller with my Windows / Steam game box, I bought a second Pro 2 for the Cube, the new controller being gray and not black like the older one, lest I get them mixed up.
I had tinkered with reprogramming buttons on my old Pro 2, but never did much with it, so I had to dope it out better. The buttons are reprogrammed using an "Ultimate Software" app running on Windows; I ran it, and hooked up the new Pro 2 controller to my PC using USB. The app gave me a list of button mappings that I could change. Having done so, I told the app to "sync to the controller" to download the new settings.
All done? Not quite, I had to press a button on the controller to get it to accept the new key mappings, then exit the app. I couldn't get the mappings to work when I hooked up the controller over bluetooth to the Cube -- until I realized I had to press the button again to select the mappings. I think I can program several sets of mappings, but I didn't need to and didn't worry about it. Anyway, I'm not back up to speed with ASTEROIDS again yet, but advancing steadily. I'm also playing other games in the package that I hadn't paid attention to before, focusing on MEGAPEDES, a CENTIPEDES clone, and getting up to a middling level on it.
Oh yeah, another little comment ... the Pro 2 controller has a 4-position switch to allow the host machine to be set, labeled "SADX" for "Nintendo Switch", "Apple", "Android", and "Xbox / Windows" respectively. Since the Cube is an Android-type device, did I need to set it to "D"? That didn't work well; I set it to "X" and worked from there.
BACK_TO_TOPSUN 03 MAR 24: Ukraine inherited almost a third of the USSR's defense industry, including manufacture of military vehicles -- the most notable such operation being the Malyshev factory in Kharkov, which produced many of the USSR's tanks. In addition, there's an auto plant at Kremenchuk, on the Dnipro between Kyiv and Dnipro City, and a tractor plant in Kharkiv, both of which also produce military vehicles.
Ukrainian manufacturers have been able to produce analogs of the M113 APC, MaxxPro MRAP, and Humvee armored vehicles called Lys ("Fox"), Sikach ("Boar"), and Kharakternyk ("Warlock") respectively. The Lys actually appears to be a modification of old M113s provided by allies from stockpiles, brought up to a common modernized configuration.
They likely have got new radios and such, possibly some frontal armor -- M113s are thin-skinned, but there are videos of Ukrainian M113s shooting it out in frontline combat. One useful update, possibly in progress, would be putting a robot machine-gun turret on top, with a small radar, to allow an M113 to shoot down drones. The Ukrainians are ingenious; they may come up with even more interesting variations on the M113.
Ukraine's traditional arms industries have had big challenges. One was that they were networked with Russian firms at the outset, and withdrawal of Russian support made things very difficult for them. They also inherited Soviet traditions of bureaucracy, inefficiency, and corruption that have proven frustratingly difficult to correct. Ukraine's military startups, notably those working on drones, are more agile.
MON 04 MAR 24: In more news of the Ukraine War, over the past few weeks the Ukrainians have shot down 15 Russian combat aircraft -- including an A-50 AWACS platform, the rest being Su-34 strike fighters and Su-35 fighters. That may be an indication of increased Russian willingness to take risks, but it is also possible that new weapons are in play.
One interesting possibility is the RIM-174 / SM-6 naval surface-to-air missile. It can also be fired from ground launchers, one being in the form of a standard cargo container -- rendering it hard to identify in space surveillance. The SM-6 is only supposed to have a range of 240 kilometers (150 miles), but it is thought to actually have up to twice that range.
TUE 05 MAR 24: The Ukrainians just sank another Russian corvette, the SERGEY KOTOV, with sea drones. The Ukrainian sea drone offensive against the Russian Black Sea Fleet shows no signs of slowing down, with longer-range drones being progressively introduced.
What is puzzling is that a few months back, it appeared that the Russians had figured out how to neutralize the "sea babies", as they are known, learning to detect them and destroy them with machine gun / automatic cannon fire. Obviously the Ukrainians have since improved their tactics, but it is hard to say in what way. There was talk of long-range robot torpedoes and robot submarines last year, but that's gone quiet. There is also the possibility that the drones are now launching torpedoes or missiles. Nobody's talking.
THU 06 MAR 24: Republican lawmakers get upset over the strangest things. Legislation is now being pushed in Florida and Alabama to ban the sale of lab-grown meat. Lab-grown meat is barely a thing right now, but it is on the horizon, and some people are outraged. Florida Republican state senator Tyler Sirois, who is pushing a ban, says the tech is an "affront to nature and creation." Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, staying on-brand, adds: "You need meat, okay? We're going to have meat in Florida. Like, we're not going to have fake meat. Like, that doesn't work."
Actually, the push to ban lab-grown meat appears to be driven by worries that it will put livestock production out of business. That is indeed a worry, but it is ironic that Republicans, who complain endlessly about regulation of industry, are so quick to pass regulations against industries that rock the boat. The GOP does not like the vision of the economist Joseph Schumpeter, who saw capitalism advancing through "creative destruction". The GOP backing of industry is selective, in favor of the old and stodgy, against the new and innovative -- with companies that push diversity and environmental responsibility regarded with particular disdain.
FRI 07 MAR 24: According to THEWARZONE.com, it appears the Russians are now using quadcopter kamikaze drones with "wire guidance" -- or more specifically, fiber-optic thread guidance -- instead of radio guidance. Wire guidance is not new, having been invented in WWII; it was generally used in 1st- and 2nd-generation antitank missiles, most notably the US TOW, and also in guided torpedoes.
The advantage of wire guidance is that it is jamproof, and also doesn't give the k-drone away with radio emissions. In addition, it can support more bandwidth, for example allowing video with higher resolution. The disadvantage is range limited to the length of the fiber-optic thread -- which is somewhat less of a problem than the fact that the thread can get tangled in the brush and hang up the k-drone. Wire-guided missiles like TOW were only used when they had a clear line of fire to a target, and incidentally late-model TOWs have a radio link -- with such TOWs in service with the Ukrainians. It appears that wire-guided k-drones are only useful at relatively short range, against targets that don't move around much.
* AND SO ON: President Joe Biden delivered his State of the Union (SOTU) address on Thursday night. The SOTU is a good place for a presidential administration to describe its current agenda, and make a case for its actions. The address accordingly went on for over an hour. It began with:
QUOTE:
... in January 1941, Franklin Roosevelt came to this chamber to speak to the nation and he said: "I address you at a moment unprecedented in the history of the Union." Hitler was on the march, war was raging in Europe, President Roosevelt's purpose was to wake up Congress and alert the American people that this was no ordinary time. Freedom and democracy were under assault in the world.
Tonight, I come to this same chamber to address the nation. Now, it's we who face an unprecedented moment in the history of the Union. And yes, my purpose tonight is to wake up the Congress and alert the American people that this is no ordinary moment either. Not since President Lincoln in the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault at home as they are today. What makes our moment rare is the freedom and democracy are under attack at both at home and overseas at the very same time.
END_QUOTE
Of course, the primary threat to world freedom is Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, in his effort to subjugate Ukraine -- an effort that has been endorsed by Donald Trump:
QUOTE:
Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons that it needs to defend itself. That is all. That is all Ukraine is asking. They're not asking for American soldiers. In fact, there are no American soldiers in the war in Ukraine and I'm determined to keep it that way. But now, assistance to Ukraine is being blocked by those who want to walk away from our world leadership. It wasn't a long ago when a Republican president named Ronald Reagan thundered: "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall."
Now, my predecessor, a former Republican president, tells Putin: "Do whatever the hell you want." That's a quote. A former president actually said that bowing down to a Russian leader, I think it's outrageous, it's dangerous, and it's unacceptable.
END_QUOTE
The war has led to the strengthening of NATO, establishing a unified front to oppose Putin. Back in the USA, Donald Trump threatened freedom on 6 January 2021, when he tried to overturn the 2020 election, with many of his supporters in Congress now pretending it didn't happen. The president took a shot at Trump's apologists:
QUOTE:
Here's the simple truth: you can't love your country only when you win. As I've done ever since being elected to office, I ask all of you without regard to party, to join together and defend democracy. Remember, your oath of office is defending against all threats, foreign and domestic. Respect ... free and fair elections.
END_QUOTE
The assault on freedoms also included the judicial nullification of the ROE V WADE decision, leading in recent weeks to the absurd effort to ban in-vitro fertilization in Alabama. That all traces back to Trump as well:
QUOTE:
My predecessor came to office determined to see ROE V WADE overturned. He's the reason it was overturned and he brags about it. Look at the chaos that has resulted ... There are state laws banning the freedom to choose. Criminalizing doctors, forcing survivors of rape and incest to leave their states to get the treatment they need. Many of you in this chamber and my predecessor are promising to pass a national ban on reproductive freedom. My god, what freedoms would you take away?
END_QUOTE
The president declared: "I promise you, I'll restore ROE V WADE as the law of the land again. Folks, America cannot go back."
Of course, another one of Donald Trump's failings as president was his mismanagement of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the attendant disruption of the economy. The president of course trumpeted the success of "Bidenomics" in bringing the economy back up again:
QUOTE:
Now, our economy is literally the envy of the world. 15 million new jobs in just three years, a record. Unemployment, at 50-year low. A record 16 million Americans are starting small businesses and each one is a literal act of hope with historic job growth and small business growth for Black and Hispanics and Asian-Americans. 800,000 new manufacturing jobs in America and counting. Where is it written we can't be the manufacturing capital of the world? We are and we will.
More people have health insurance today than ever before. The racial wealth gap is as small as it's been in 20 years. Wages keep going up, inflation keeps coming down. Inflation has dropped from 9% to 3%, the lowest in the world and tending lower. The landing is and will be soft. And now, instead of importing foreign products and exporting American jobs, we're exporting American products and creating American jobs right here in America where they belong.
... On my watch, federal projects that you fund, like helping build American roads, bridges, and highways will be made with American products and built by American workers. Good paying American jobs. And thanks to our Chips and Science Act, the United States is investing more in research and development than ever before. During the pandemic, a shortage of semiconductors, chips that drove up the price of everything from cellphones to automobiles.
... In fact, my policies have attracted $650 billion in private sector investment in clean energy, advanced manufacturing, creating tens of thousands of jobs here in America. And thanks to our bipartisan infrastructure law, 46,000 new projects have announced all across your communities. And by the way, I noticed some of you strongly voted against it [but are] cheering on that money coming in.
... I grew up in a home where trickle-down economics didn't put much on my dad's kitchen table, that's why I'm determined to turn things around so middle class does well. When they do well, the poor have a way up and the wealthy still do very well. We all do well.
... Americans pay more for prescription drugs than anywhere in the world. It's wrong and I'm ending it. With a law that I proposed and signed, and not one of your Republican buddies voted for it, we finally beat big pharma.
... This year Medicare is negotiating lower prices for some of the costliest drugs on the market that treat everything from heart disease to arthritis.
... Folks, the Affordable Care Act, the Obamacare, it's still a very big deal. Over 100 million of you can no longer be denied health insurance because of pre-existing condition, but my predecessor, and many in this chamber, want to take that protection drug away by repealing the Affordable Care Act. I'm not going to let that happen. We stopped you 50 times before and we will stop you again.
END_QUOTE
The president listed other efforts of his administration, including an initiative on women's health research; a grab-bag of efforts to make buying and owning a home cheaper; support for child education; investment in small business, particularly minority-owned small businesses; and cancellation of student loans. He went on to push for tax reform:
QUOTE:
It's my goal to cut the federal deficit $3 trillion by making big corporations and the very wealthy finally beginning to pay their fair share. Look, I'm a capitalist. If you want to make a million or millions of bucks, that's great, just pay your fair share in taxes. A fair tax code is how we invest things that make this country great: health care, education, defense, and more, but here's the deal, the last administration enacted a $2 trillion tax cut, overwhelmingly benefit the topping 1%, the very wealthy, the biggest corporation, and exploded the federal deficit.
They added more to the national debt than any presidential term in American history. Check the numbers. Folks at home, does anybody really think the tax code is fair? Do you really think the wealthy and big corporations need another $2 trillion tax break? I sure don't. I'm going to keep fighting like hell to make it fair. Under my plan nobody earning less than $400,000 will pay an additional penny in federal taxes. Nobody. Not one penny, and they haven't yet.
END_QUOTE
The president took a shot at the GOP mindset: "Republicans can cut Social Security and give more tax breaks to the wealthy." That got a roar of protest from the GOP in the audience, to which he replied: "I kind of thought that's what your plan was. Well, that's good to hear you're not going to cut another $2 trillion for the super wealthy."
The audience settled down, and the president spoke of his administration's efforts to clamp down on corporations that gouging and deceptive pricing. That said, the president spoke of the bipartisan border-security bill that the Republicans recently shot down: "In November, my team began serious negotiations with a bipartisan group of senators. The result was a bipartisan bill with the toughest set of border security reforms we've ever seen."
That got another roar of protest, with the president answering: "Oh, you don't like that bill, huh, that conservatives got together and said was a good bill? I'll be darned."
The president pointed out the virtues of the bill, but said it was killed on the orders of Trump, who wanted immigration to remain unfixed so he could campaign on his. The president asked for discussion and progress on immigration reform: "We have a simple choice. We can fight about fixing the border or we can fix it. I'm ready to fix it. Send me the border bill now."
Of course, there are also a lot of things that need to be fixed for Americans:
QUOTE:
It's back in time. Voter suppression, election subversion, unlimited dark money, extreme gerrymandering. ... it's time to do more than talk. Pass the Freedom to Vote Act, the John Lewis Voting Right Act. And stop denying another core value of America, our diversity across American life. Banning books, it's wrong. Instead of erasing history, let's make history. I want to protect fundamental rights. Pass the Equality Act. Am I missing the transgender American? I have your back. Pass the PRO Act for workers' rights. Raise the federal minimum wage because every worker has a right to a decent living, more than 7 bucks an hour.
END_QUOTE
The president played up other administration efforts, to address the climate crisis, cutting emissions, creating clean energy jobs, and launching the Climate Corps; helping communities reduce crime and violence against women; and promote reasonable gun-safety laws, in a sharp contrast to the mindset of Trump:
QUOTE:
After another shooting in Iowa recently, when asked what to do about it, he said, "Just get over it." ... I say stop it. Stop it, stop it, stop it. I'm proud we beat the NRA when I signed the most significant gun safety law in nearly 30 years because of this Congress. We now must beat the NRA again. I'm demanding a ban on assault weapons and high capacity magazines. Pass universal background checks.
END_QUOTE
Internationally, the conflict in Gaza is certainly a big concern:
QUOTE:
This crisis began on October 7th with a massacre by a terrorist group called Hamas as you all know. 1,200 innocent people, women and girls, men and boys, slaughtered after enduring sexual violence. The deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust and 250 hostages taken ... Israel has the right to go after Hamas.
Hamas ... could end it by releasing the hostages, laying down arms and surrendering those responsible for October 7th. But Israel has an added burden because Hamas hides and operates among the civilian population like cowards under hospitals, daycare centers and all the like.
Israel also has a fundamental responsibility though to protect innocent civilians in Gaza. This war has taken a greater toll on innocent civilians than all previous wars in Gaza combined. More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed, most of whom are not Hamas. I've been working nonstop to establish an immediate cease fire that would last for six weeks to get all the prisoners released, all the hostages released, to get the hostages home and ease the intolerable and humanitarian crisis and build toward something more enduring. The United States have been leading international efforts to get more humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
... To the leadership of Israel, I say this, humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority. As we look to the future, the only real solution to the situation is a two-state solution over time. ... there is no other path that guarantees Israel's security and democracy. There is no other path that guarantees Palestinian can live in peace with peace and dignity.
END_QUOTE
Along with the fighting in Gaza, there are the accompanying Iran-driven attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, with Americans joining allies in a military response. In addition, the president said, the USA is standing up to China's unfair trade practices and its threats against Taiwan, and establishing closer alliances with allies around the Pacific Rim, with an eye to counterbalancing China.
Finally, the president listed other lesser, but still important, efforts of his administration: controlling fentanyl trafficking; ensuring moderation of social media; considering regulations on AI; and helping service folk, veterans, and their families. He concluded with:
QUOTE:
I see a future we're defending democracy. ... I see a future where we'll restore the right to choose and protect our freedoms, not take them away. I see a future where the middle class finally has a fair shot, and the wealthy have to pay their fair share in taxes. I see a future where we save the planet from the climate crisis and our country from gun violence.
Above all, I see a future for all Americans, I see a country for all Americans, and I'll always be president for all Americans because I believe in America. I believe in you, the American people. You're the reason we've never been more optimistic about our future than I am now. So let's build the future together. Let's remember who we are. We're the United States of America, and there's nothing, nothing beyond our capacity when we act together. God bless you all, and may God protect our troops. Thank you.
END_QUOTE
The media described the public reaction to the speech as "mixed". Yes, it was: the GOP hated it and the Democrats ate it up. The ongoing talk of Biden's bad polling numbers was belied by the speech being accompanied by a tsunami of donations to the Biden campaign.
BACK_TO_TOPSUN 10 MAR 24: Last Friday, Lara Trump -- wife of Donald Trump's son Eric -- was voted co-chair of the Republican National Committee. It was not too dramatic to say that showed Donald Trump had taken over the Republican Party apparatus, and that no further evidence was needed to demonstrate the collapse of the GOP.
Lara Trump proclaimed that the RNC's first priority is "protecting the vote" -- meaning that if Donald Trump loses, the Democrats will be accused of cheating. That won't work for him: he's already played that card to death, and is staring down the muzzle of election-fraud charges that are very likely to put him away for the rest of his life.
There is an extraordinary unreality to the talk and actions of the Right. Trump is going down hard, and there's nothing they can do about it. He's been able to slow down his criminal prosecution, but is not able to stop it -- in fact, Trump's legal position has been getting ever worse, with his legal defense disintegrating. What happens to the GOP after the fall? There's no saying, except that it won't be anything good.
Polls keep claiming Trump and Biden are in a close race, but the polls seem afflicted by unreality as well. There are no more challenges to Biden's nomination for president, meaning complaints about him from Democrats are evaporating. In the 24 hours after Biden's SOTU speech last week, he pulled in $10 million USD in donations. It does seem like going all-out against Trump is like hitting a cockroach with a sledgehammer, but I'm not unhappy about that: Yes, Trump is going down, but best not to take any chances.
TUE 12 MAR 24: Republican Representative Ken Buck, from Colorado, had previously announced he would not run for re-election. Today, he announced that he was simply quitting now, and would leave Washington DC as soon as he was able. I got to thinking later: "Does that have anything to do with the ascendance of Lara Trump as co-chair of the Republican National Committee?"
On consideration, that seems only too plausible -- and it also seems plausible that the fallout from Trump's take-over of the RNC won't stop there. I've been thinking that the GOP national convention in July was likely to be a train wreck, but the convention will run according to the Trump script. Does the train wreck happen now? We shall see.
WED 13 MAR 24: Although I gladly bailed out of X/Twitter, I decided that I wanted to keep my account active -- the reasons being that there were some people on Twitter I wanted to follow, to sometimes link their postings to Spoutible, and place ads for my ebooks on occasion. I logged in with Google and, to my surprise, found my old account still active; it hadn't been deleted yet.
I'm not relapsing; on going back to X/Twitter, it stinks even worse than I remember. I'm not sure I'll make much good use of it. I've got alternate accounts on Threads and BlueSky as well, again primarily to post ebook ads, but neither has amounted to much; I tend to forget about them, and X/Twitter has become as forgettable. For now, Spout is the answer. I'll see what happens next year.
To my surprise, today I ran across somebody on Spout who was obviously a Kremlin-paid "Afro-troll", from Sierra Leone, who was persistently trolling for Trump. I reported him; it took a few hours, but finally he got blocked for a week. I'm wondering what happens to him after the week is up.
THU 14 MAR 24: Today I ran across people complaining online about the slow pace of the investigations of Trump, saying that the Robert Mueller investigation had been a let-down, and that too much should not be expected of the Jack Smith investigation.
For the gazillionth time, the Mueller investigation was highly successful: "A total of 34 individuals & 3 companies were indicted by Mueller's investigators. 8 pleaded guilty to or were convicted of felonies, including 5 Trump associates & campaign officials."
Yeah, Mueller didn't touch Trump, but it was apparent that he wouldn't from the outset: the Department of Justice cannot indict a sitting president. It would be equivalent to allowing the DOJ to overturn the government. "What COULD go wrong?!"
Yes, the current investigations drag out, but they were always going to take a long time. It took five years to indict gangster John Gotti, and two more years to convict him. Trump's status as an ex-president greatly complicates investigations, as does his instinct to file appeals, even on ridiculous pretexts. Either we wait on the court process, or we end up waiting on the appeals.
As a reality check, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, who is currently pursuing a felony case against Trump over "hush money" payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, has now asked for a 30-day delay in the trial start date -- just to have more time to screen possibly relevant documents in the case. The delays don't matter: Trump is going down, it can't be stopped.
* AND SO ON: Back on 16 February, the Alabama Supreme Court granted "personhood" to fertilized embryos for in-vitro fertilization (IVF). The case concerned an employee who dropped and destroyed a set of frozen embryos, with the couples who provided the embryos suing for the "Wrongful Death of a Minor". An Alabama court judged against the suit, the couples appealed to the Alabama Supreme Court, which then judged for the couples.
This took almost everybody by surprise, but at the same time the judgement was perfectly consistent with the mindset of the TFUBs -- the "Trolls For the UnBorn". Everybody else finds it absurd, highlighting the absurdity of the TFUB position, with the Alabama legislature then passing a law to protect IVF providers, and Republican politicians tapdancing to dodge the bullet.
Representative Jasmine Crockett -- a notoriously sharp-shooting black Texas Democrat -- had some comments relative to the IVF controversy while talking with MSNBC's Ali Velshi. Velshi said:
QUOTE:
I guess the issue here is even some Republicans and conservatives seem confused by this IVF stuff. They're not understanding: "Wait a second, we want people to babies, then we don't want them to have babies, but then we can't really give them contraception, and they have to be nearly dead to have an exception to the abortion laws." Except, as we learned, in Texas, even if you're nearly dead, and your doctor says you are entitled to an abortion, you actually still can't get one.
END_QUOTE
Crockett came back with:
QUOTE:
Yeah. You're being so kind by calling them confused. They are not confused, they're just stupid. They don't know what they're doing, and this is why they need to stay in their lanes, right? We're not doctors. And we should allow doctors to be the ones to tell us what we should and should not allow.
This is a science thing. I know that they are trying to rid this country of science, and rid this of history, and all the very basic things. They obviously struggle with math as well. Listen, we need to send the Republicans back to elementary school so that they can get the basics, and understand what it is that we should be relying upon. Including our doctors. Our doctors that are telling us: "Listen, these policies will kill women. Listen, these policies will disallow those that actually want to bring children into this world from being able to do so."
And this idea of trying to define personhood before someone has actually entered the world is absolutely insane to me. I mean, I saw on social media just the other day, someone said the reason that we don't call [out] IVF ... and say: "These are children!" -- is because: "When is the last time you can put a child in the freezer and they actually live?"
Right? [The embryos stay] in the freezer, and so [should] this idea that we're going to ignore the experts. That's why we're struggling with climate change. That's why we're struggling with [reproductive rights]. That's why we're struggling in general in this country ... it's time to get back on track, it's time to listen to the experts instead of listening to [the] ignorant.
END_QUOTE
* The NEW YORK TIMES reports on the latest intrusions of online Kremlin trolls:
QUOTE:
Into the depleted field of journalism in America, a handful of websites have appeared in recent weeks with names suggesting a focus on news close to home: DC WEEKLY, the NEW YORK NEWS DAILY, the CHICAGO CHRONICLE -- and a newer sister publication, the MIAMI CHRONICLE.
In fact ... they are Russian creations, researchers and government officials say, meant to ... push Kremlin propaganda by interspersing it among an ... odd mix of stories about crime, politics, and culture. ... The fake news organizations ... the researchers and officials said, could well be the foundations of an online network primed to surface disinformation ahead of the American presidential election in November.
END_QUOTE
I'm not worried. Trolling has saturated the market and almost everybody recognizes it for what it is. Even if it's AI generated, trolling has an inescapable bad smell to it, and upping the quantity through mass production only makes the smell worse.
BACK_TO_TOPDAYLOG TUE 19 FEB 24: One of the big buzzes going around yesterday was Trump's lawyers saying they couldn't get anyone to fund the $454 million bond needed for him to challenge the New York civil judgement for that sum against him. I found that unsurprising, and very amusing. I'm still a bit puzzled as to why he would have to post a bond matching the judgement against him to appeal the judgement. I don't have a problem with it, I'm just curious about the legal reasoning behind it.
There was chatter on Spout on various underhanded ways Trump might get the money anyway, for example selling government secrets. I was very dubious; Trump is under continuous surveillance -- nobody is saying that he is, the authorities never announce anyone's under surveillance, it just would be astounding if he wasn't -- and I don't see how it could happen. Yeah, Trump is clueless enough to do anything, but he's too clueless to pull off a stunt like that.
The objection came back that the surveillance is unlikely to be airtight. True -- but Trump, not knowing where the gaps are, would never know if the Feds were listening in or not. It was certainly implausible to think he could get his hands on tens of million, hundreds of millions of dollars, without the Feds noticing. Such money transfers leave a big footprint and paper trail.
DAYLOG WED 20 FEB 24: Trump being unable to raise the bond to challenge the $454 million USD New York judgement against him, it appears that the state may ultimately seize his New York properties, notably including Trump Tower. Seizing properties is troublesome, so the state would prefer to get the money, but it seems unlikely Trump has the money.
Word is that Trump thinks he can beat the rap on appeal to SCOTUS. I doubt it. Also, one anonymous source complained that such a seizure could have a "chilling effect" on New York business, since "it could happen to anyone". Yeah, anyone who got elected president as a hustle, and then performed a Clown Car Coup to stay in office.
The question has been going around Spout: "If Trump really was a billionaire, shouldn't he be able to pay the bond?" That's sarcasm, of course, since Trump was never really a billionaire. I used to think he was probably actually broke, but on consideration that was simplistic: Trump's Bogus Business Empire is based on dynamic financial juggling that makes it effectively impossible to place a solid value on it. However, it is apparent that any disruption to that house of cards will send it crashing down.
DAYLOG THU 21 MAR 24: Yesterday, one Lev Parnas -- a Ukrainian who had worked for Rudy Giuliani, in particular on efforts to smear Joe Biden, and did jail time after being caught short -- testified in the GOP-run House Oversight & Accountability Committee hearing titled: "Influence Peddling: Examining Joe Biden's Abuse of Public Office".
That testimony did not make the GOP on that committee happy, Parnas first saying that the media, except for FOX and the like, didn't want to touch the smears he and his associates were spreading about Joe Biden -- then added there were Members of Congress who were more enthusiastic: "There was also other people that were doing the bidding for the Russians -- people in Congress, like Senator Ron Johnson, like Congressman Pete Sessions, who sits here right now. [Sessions] was with me from the very beginning on this journey, into finding of the, giving dirt on Joe Biden."
Johnson and Sessions both rejected Parnas' claims, and indeed his background suggests his word may not be trustworthy. Nonetheless, the single-minded efforts of MAGA GOP to find something, anything, to pin on Joe Biden lends weight to those claims.
GOP Congressman Jim Comer of Kentucky, who has been leading the charge against Joe Biden, sat through the testimony, appearing glum and distant -- as well he might, since it appears that the GOP attempts to impeach Joe Biden are being given up. They were always futile, but that didn't stop the House MAGA from persisting. Something has changed as of late.
DAYLOG FRI 22 MAR 24: Today the House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion government funding bill and passed it on to the Senate for a final vote -- just hours before the government was scheduled to shut down. It probably won't be voted on before Sunday, but shutting down the government over the weekend is not a very big deal.
Both sides got things they wanted out of the bill -- most notably, more funds for border security -- but the House MAGA still wailed in indignation, with Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene threatening to evict Speaker Mike Johnson for not following the MAGA line. "Good luck with that, MTG!"
Johnson's made a dramatic turnaround over the last week or two, no longer trying to simply obstruct everything, all the time. It seems Hakeem Jeffries, boss of the House Democrats, suggested that the Dems would back Johnson up as long as he acted like a mensch, meaning the House MAGA can't evict him.
Next up is the Ukraine aid package, though that won't be touched until Easter recess is over. Johnson has indicated he's all for it, and it is almost guaranteed to get through Congress if voted on. There's talk of making it a "loan" instead of a grant -- which is silly, since Ukraine can't pay it back, and the loan would be forgiven eventually anyway.
Senator Mitt Romney says he's agreeable to the loan idea: "That's fine. It's a distinction without much difference because it's unlikely Ukraine would ever have to pay it back. If it has to be done as a loan to get it through the House, so be it."
DAYLOG SAT 23 MAR 24: Ukraine has been conducting an increasingly effective campaign of air strikes against Russian oil infrastructure. That's very good -- but the FINANCIAL TIMES is saying the USA is opposed to the strikes. Huh? On investigation, the only thing FT points to is this:
QUOTE:
"We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia," an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment.
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Well duh, of course the USA has a hands-off attitude toward Ukraine operations in Russia -- but the USA has never objected to them, either. FT is lying. Incidentally, as of late Russians fighting along with Ukraine, most significantly the "Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL)", have reportedly been making a serious nuisance of themselves through incursions in areas of Russia adjoining Ukraine. It's hard to know exactly what's going on there, since the FRL and the other anti-Putin Russian formations are entirely secret, with the Ukrainians essentially refusing to comment on them.
Also incidentally, Joe Biden signed the new budget into law today. It appears Congress didn't feel like wrangling any longer than they had to. Who wants to work weekends?
AND SO ON: The news media keeps pretending that the 2024 election will be a near thing for Joe Biden. There's something very wrong with the polls; it is unreasonable to think that Donald Trump can run an effective presidential campaign out of criminal court, and all the "ground truth" indicators aren't looking good for Trump. On querying MS Copilot on relative fund-raising, I got a somewhat scrambled reply -- generative AI is like that -- but the bottom line is: "Biden currently has $71 million USD cash on hand compared to $33.5 million USD for Trump's campaign."
In addition, Trump is obviously skimming all the money he can to support his legal bills -- and then there's the not-so-small matter of the $454 million USD New York judgement against him. Not only is Trump sinking financially, he's dragging down the Republican Party with him.
I don't think Joe Biden is sweating this election, but he's not taking any changes, getting in his shots he can at Trump. Down in Texas for a fund-raiser, Biden said:
QUOTE:
Just the other day, this defeated looking man came up to me and said: "Mr. President, I need your help. I'm in crushing debt. I'm completely wiped out."
I had to say: "Donald, I can't help you."
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Maybe it's a little bit too easy to cut down Trump -- but again, why take chances? [ED: As it turned out, unforeseen events changed the calculus entirely.]
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