MrG's Blog & Notes

* This is an archive of my own online blog and notes, with weekly entries collected by month.

[MON 01 MAY 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 17

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas delivered a speech in Sydney, Australia, on cyber-security, suggesting that the war in Ukraine was providing big lessons on cyber-defense. She began with:

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There was a perception before the war broke out that the fighting would be intense in cyberspace -- but it was only really intense on the battlefield, with the cyberwar muted. Nonetheless, it was still going on:

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In response to the threats, democratic nations need to be prepared to continue to deal with cyber-warfare after the shooting stops, and invest in defensive measures. That implies developing new methods and setting up new systems. The bad actors need to be identified, neutralized, and held accountable. Finally, cyber-defense needs to become a function of democratic society as a whole:

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* This last week, President Joe Biden announced, as expected, that he was running for re-election -- with, also as expected, a loud chorus of complaints that he's too old to take on a second term.

Personally, that doesn't worry me at all. The Biden Administration is not a one-man show; it's a collective effort, with Joe Biden as the chairman. I have little doubt that, if his cabinet tells him he can't do the job any more, he will promptly resign. I suspect many of his critics know that, and their real problem is that Vice-President Kamala Harris will become president, and they don't like that idea.

Incidentally, there was also a "Take Your Kids To Work" day at the White House this last week, with Joe Biden showing off his new Secret Service detail -- four kids in black, with shades and earphones. Joe Biden just loves kids. Biden then followed up that act with a deft performance at the White House Correspondent's Dinner, with Vice President Kamala Harris and both their spouses in attendance:

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[MON 06 MAY 24] THE WEEK THAT WAS 18

DAYLOG MON 29 APR 24: "Legal Eagle" Teri Kanefield, writing in her blog, detailed the weaknesses of the "hush money" case against Trump, saying that Trump was guilty of bad behavior in the case, but didn't necessarily do anything illegal. She then suggested that he was going to be convicted anyway, partly because criminal trials more often than not result in convictions -- but more because Trump's conduct in the trial has been nasty, juvenile, and ignorant, marked by attacks on the judge.

I would have to add that Trump's behavior in the 2016 election was so disreputable that it stands to reason there had to be some identifiable crime in it -- or at least the jury would think so. Of course, Trump will appeal if convicted, but so what else is news?

* In other news, Joe Biden's son Hunter is apparently getting ready to slam a big defamation lawsuit on Fox News. This is gonna be good. It is somewhat surprising that Fox has been spreading vicious lies about people for decades, but only now is being sued for it. It appears that lawyers thought that pressing a defamation suit against Fox would be very difficult and unlikely to pay off. The success of the Dominion Voting Machines lawsuit against Fox appears to have opened the floodgates. I'm waiting for Ray Epps to get his turn.

DAYLOG TUE 30 APR 24: BUSINESS INSIDER had an article on the failure of US weapons in Ukraine, focusing on the "Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GL-SDB)". It was a 112-kilogram (250-pound) glide bomb, normally dropped by aircraft, mounted on an old MLRS booster rocket.

Observers knew that GL-SDB should have been introduced into the Ukraine War early last year, but nothing happened. It wasn't until much later in the year that it became obvious the Orcs had jammed GPS over the battle area, rendering the GPS-guided SDB useless. A US defense official recently publicly admitted that experimental GL-SDB launches in the war zone had failed. The puzzle in this statement was: Why say this now? The trick is that SDB production has presumably moved on to the much more sophisticated "SDB II", which doesn't need GPS.

It seems plausible, if not certain, that the US is now supplying GL-SDB2 in quantity to Ukraine. Some months back there was a report of a Russian assembly in the Donbas region that was hit by 6 long-range munitions and devastated. GL-SDBs come in 6-packs. Maybe an operational test? So the reference to the failure of GL-SDB may be misdirection. Incidentally, there's also a laser-guided version of the original SDB, which could be guided to targets by long-range drones with laser target designators. We'll see in the not-too-distant future.

As a further consideration, the US has developed a finned fuze for standard 155-millimeter shells, the "M1156 Precision Guidance Kit (PGK)", which converts the shell into a GPS-guided munition. GPS, again, is not working in the battle area -- but why not build a version of the M1156 with laser guidance? Or with the ability to home in on "emitters", such as radar or jammer systems? Nice idea, but nobody's saying a word.

DAYLOG WED 01 MAY 24: A UK penpal told me that British media has been calling the US presidential race "neck & neck" -- which means they're listening to US media. I told him that there's very little visible enthusiasm for Trump on the ground here. It is hard to understand how Trump could conduct a credible presidential campaign from criminal court. [ED: He didn't, indeed his campaign mostly showed off his senility, but he won anyway.]

I'm still thinking that in 2050, the younger generation will read about Trump and say: "You're lying. This couldn't have happened." Oh, but it did. [ED: This part remains truthful.]

DAYLOG THU 02 MAY 24: Retired US Army General Wesley Clark, once a NATO commander, recently commented in a public forum on the Ukraine War -- saying it was unlikely the struggle would end one way or the other any time soon.

Clark said: "I don't think Ukraine is willing to compromise and give up its territory. I don't think the Ukrainian military is going to collapse, even though things are pretty tough right now until that American assistance gets there. And I don't think Russia is willing to give up, so it's an endurance contest, and it's also a contest of national will, and whether the United States and NATO will stand firm to support a beleaguered democracy."

Clark said we have to be patient and stay the course: "For Ukraine to collapse, we'd be faced with a huge national security crisis in Europe, and it would empower the Chinese to go after Taiwan. So we can't measure it on the clock."

Clark concluded: "It's going to be a hair-raising time in Ukraine and for the West and then ... summer will probably end with a Ukrainian counteroffensive that regains much of the territory lost. 2025 may be decisive."

I think a counteroffensive is likely, but I'm thinking it will be focused on Crimea, using imaginative tactics. 2025 is indeed likely to be decisive, since Putin will then run out of money to fund the war. If he doesn't win now, he never will.

AND SO ON: This last week, THE ECONOMIST magazine conducted an interview with French President Emmanuel Macron, with Macron saying that Vladimir Putin posed a dire threat to Europe, and that NATO nations should consider direct intervention in the war if necessary:

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Macron said:"if Russia decided to go further, we will in any case all have to ask ourselves this question" of sending troops, describing his refusal to rule out such a move as a "strategic wake-up call for my counterparts." Macron described Russia under Putin as "a power of regional destabilization" and "a threat to Europeans' security". He elaborated:

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Macron said that Russia "has broken all the frameworks and has basically returned to a logic of total war." However, Putin is overstretched and cannot sustain his war: "Devoting a third of its budget to defense is not sustainable for a country whose gross domestic product is lower than that of France, Germany, or the United Kingdom."

Most NATO nations said they had no intention of sending troops to Ukraine. The Poles, however, are playing their cards close to the vest; if France intervenes, it's a good bet the Poles will, too. Macron was not specific about what form such an intervention would take, preferring to maintain "strategic ambiguity", but insisted that the threat should not and could not be underestimated -- that Europe faced not only a military, security, and economic threat, but a threat to democratic rule.

Macron went on to warn voters to steer clear of nationalists in upcoming European Parliament elections:

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He singled out the French Rightist Rassemblement National (RN) Party, saying the RN ...

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* A writeup on the DJI Osmo Pocket 3 camera caught my eye. It's a "vlogging" camera, tuned for wandering around and taking videos, in a convenient one-handed fashion, with the imager on a gimbal mount. Reviews suggested its capabilities approach that of a semi-pro mirrorless camera, though it has one drawback: it only has 2x digital zoom.

My interest in it is for low-light / night still photography. My Samsung Galaxy S20 Ultra does pretty well for low-light photography, but it has painfully limited image stabilization. Videos taken with the Pocket 3 for a night walk down a city street give very good results, even though the shooter was in motion. Lack of zoom is not a big deal for night shots. With a mini-tripod and a large micro-SD card, it should cost about $570 USD, but I will spring for it. I don't buy many spendy things these days and I'm not short of money -- so why not?

[MON 13 MAY 24] THE WEEK THAT WAS 19

DAYLOG MON 06 MAY 24: I'm a geezer who plays videogames -- generally arcade games, puzzle games, racing games, since I don't have too much spare time to play games. I'd been looking around for a free version of PAC-MAN to play, but I couldn't find one that worked for me.

Today, I saw an article on an elaborate version of PAC-MAN that had been opened up for public play. It looked fun, but it was a multiplayer game, and I wanted a single-player game. I searched for alternatives, and found a YouTube video on free versions of PAC-MAN. One, OPEN GREEDY, caught my eye. GREEDY was made by French enthusiasts, starting out on DOS it seems, to work up to an open-source version for Windows about ten years ago. I downloaded it, and it turned out to be a nice little piece of work.

One fun feature is that the ghosts let out a "blood-curdling scream" when I eat them. Incidentally, Kroger supermarkets has a promotional HTML5 derivative of PAC-MAN named HUNGRY CART, with a munching shopping cart and ads to gobble up. It's cute, but not very sophisticated.

DAYLOG TUE 07 MAY 24: Today, President Joe Biden spoke on the occasion of Holocaust Memorial Day, condemning Palestinian Hamas terrorists for their savage 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, and reaffirming his support of that country. JB also denounced the "ferocious surge" in antisemitism on college campuses and elsewhere in the wake of the Gaza crisis. The speech did not endear him to pro-Palestinian activists -- but a choice between the Palestinians and the Israelis was not really a choice at all.

JB cannot derail the Israeli assault on Gaza, but he is doing all he can to reduce its impact on Palestinian civilians. For myself, I'm just waiting for the crisis to blow over. It is a distraction from other things, particularly the Ukraine War. The struggle between Palestinians and Israelis is endless. The Gaza crisis will pass and the fighting will die down, to drop off the headlines. At that point, the long-term solution will become the issue ... but nobody has any good idea of what the long-term solution could be.

DAYLOG WED 08 MAY 24: There was a wave of elections in the UK recently, with Labour winning handily over the Tories. To rub in the humiliation, a Tory MP named Natalie Elphicke then crossed the aisle and joined Labour.

Britain's Tories are imploding; my British penpal sees them having maybe 20 MPs after the next general election. Roughly the same can be said here in the USA. The "crisis of conservatism" is transcending borders. How did it happen?

On consideration, America's Republicans made four great mistakes:

1: They drank the anti-government kool-aid, and decided they didn't want to govern any more.

2: They defined themselves by what they were against, not what they were for, working to obstruct instead of getting anything done.

3: They decided to make up their own facts, and change them as convenient.

4: They decided to make up their own rules, and change them as convenient.

What happens after the fall? One scenario is that the GOP splits into an Extreme-Right party, which will slowly die out, and a Center-Right party -- but the Center has shifted Left, and so the Center-Right has ceased to exist.

After all, DEI, LGBT and reproductive rights, climate-change action, sensible gun-safety laws, and in general responsible government are now Center positions. The No Labels group wanted a Centrist candidate, never understanding: We've already got one. His name is Joe Biden.

DAYLOG THU 09 MAY 24: ESSANEWS.com reported on the activities of Ukrainian Atesh partisans in Crimea. Precisely what they are doing is not entirely clear, but they are claiming many casualties among Russian troops and destruction of Russian equipment.

They also report the Russians are transporting many wounded and dead back from the front lines. Ukrainian guerrillas appear to mostly focus on providing intelligence via smartphone on Russian operations, with the AFU reacting with missile or drone strikes.

The guerrillas also perform sabotage, and like to assassinate Ukrainian collaborating officials. Overall, the war is difficult for the Ukrainians right now, with the Russians putting AFU forces under severe pressure in the direction of Kharkiv.

Now that munitions are starting to flow to Ukraine again, odds are increasingly better that the Russian push will be stopped. Once it is, it's hard to think the Russians will be able to do better in the future. We should have a clearer idea of where things are going by the end of the month. Ukrainian and Allied war production is slowly ramping up towards a critical mass. New and possibly decisive weapons are being introduced. For the time being, however, it's still touch-&-go.

DAYLOG FRI 10 MAY 24: An interview was recently conducted with Jack Dorsey, who had been a prime mover in getting Twitter going, to ultimately sell it to Elon Musk. Dorsey has since been associated with a supposed Twitter follow-on named "BlueSky", but now he's distancing himself. Dorsey is no longer on the board of directors of BlueSky, saying that it has gone wrong in the same way that Twitter went wrong. Dorsey, however, is not reflecting on the way Twitter turned into a feedlot for trolls, but on its centralized control.

It seems Dorsey is after a decentralized, distributed social media system open to completely free expression. This sounds like a triumph of idealism over reality, since the #1 problem with social media is actually its weaponization by trolls.

The big issue in social media, whether Dorsey realizes it or not, is that Twitter -- now known as "Xitter", since Musk renamed it "X" -- is dying, and that something will replace it. Inspections of BlueSky and Instagram's Threads show they leave something to be desired. Mastodon seems more viable, but it's more along the lines of the old USENET than Twitter. That leaves Spoutible as an active candidate, since it is much better engineered than BlueSky and Threads, and far better moderated.

The latest feature in Spout, "Accuracy Alerts", allow users to invoke AI-generated fact checks on postings. The trick here is that regulators, particularly in the EU, are big on content moderation, and Spout is doing everything they want. Eventually, governments will have to dump Xitter, and Spout is likely to be the beneficiary. Not incidentally, there was once upon a time an active "Black Twitter", but Musk killed it off. It seems to have obtained a new home on Spout -- though there is no "Black Spout", it's all chocolate-flavored.

AND SO ON: An online commenter named Joe Khalil made some interesting observations:

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I replied that if such things had been said in a sci-fi novel written in the 1960s and set in 2024, everyone would have thought it was a comedy.

* An article from PROPUBLICA.com ("IRS Audit of Trump Could Cost Former President More Than $100 Million" by Paul Kiel and Russ Buettner, 11 May 2024), indicates that Donald Trump may be in big trouble with the Internal Revenue Service, concerning his Trump Tower in Chicago:

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The IRS let that pass; the agency was badly underfunded and didn't want to go after high rollers who would fight back. However ...

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That got the attention of the IRS, with Trump now facing a charge of up to $100 million USD. Since the IRS doesn't discuss its investigations with the public and the situation is complicated to begin with, it's hard to trace what happened and what's going on -- but one Walter Schwidetzky, a law professor at the University of Baltimore and an expert on partnership taxation, told the authors of the article: "I think he ripped off the tax system."

Exactly what happens remains to be seen, but I've been hoping for years that Trump would get nailed on tax charges -- he's obviously been ripping off the IRS for a long time, he's boasted about it. I was hoping he'd go to court, but this works, too.

[MON 20 MAY 24] THE WEEK THAT WAS 20

DAYLOG MON 13 MAY 24: Reports are coming in of a Russian offensive across the border in the direction of Kharkiv. The reports are utterly confused, some saying the Russians are on a roll, others that it's no big deal and Kharkiv is in no danger.

This is of course the "fog of war" at work, but it points to the significant influence of disinformation in that "fog". One pessimistic report had a Ukrainian soldier saying that Kharkiv's defenses had been criminally neglected and the Russians were going wild.

Huh? Kharkiv is more vulnerable to a Russian cross-border attack than anywhere else in Ukraine, and they didn't prepare defenses? I'm actually certain they did. It's just that they didn't build them close to the border. It would make no sense to build a defensive line on unfavorable terrain, and defenses right on the border would be vulnerable to a surprise attack. Better to let the Russians penetrate and stick their necks out, vulnerable to destruction themselves in predefined "kill zones".

I'm sure things are difficult for Ukraine right now, but there may be an element of luring the Russians in so they can be destroyed. There's also talk that new supplies of ammunition will take a long time to reach Ukrainian fighters, but that may be disinformation, too.

A recent video showed AFU forces annihilating a Russian armored column with drones and extremely precise artillery fire. It appears new munitions are coming in, not merely in quantity but with new technology that isn't affected by Russian countermeasures.

DAYLOG TUE 14 MAY 24: Trump is in court these days, and making a pest of himself to the extent that the judge fined him for contempt, warning him that he could be locked up if he persisted. Trump then called up his minions to troll the court in his place. Now we are getting the likes of Rick Scott and JD Vance denouncing the "kangaroo court" picking on Trump. Sigh, these people just do not realize they are on a sinking ship. In any case, they inspired me to cook up a take-off on Gilbert & Sullivan:

   I am the very model of a modern MAGA criminal!
   I make no sense, I have no shame, my ethics they are minimal!
   The facts are what I say they are,
   I change them if I like!
   I'm on the side of RT trolls,
   I'm really not that bright!
   I can not be trusted, I'm ignorant and whimsical!
   I am the very model of a modern MAGA criminal!

* Regarding comments yesterday on disinformation and the "fog of war", today it is reported that General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian HUR military intelligence describes the situation on the Kharkiv front as "critical", while field commanders are saying it's "under control".

I call Budanov the "Tanuki" -- the Japanese raccoon-dog, in legend a shape-shifter and trickster. What he says has to be assumed to be clever disinformation. He's too smart to lie; the best disinformation is true, just not the entire and balanced truth. A Ukrainian soldier was also saying that it would take a few months to get ammunition supplies up to speed. I suspect it's more like a few weeks.

DAYLOG WED 15 MAY 24: Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas has long been controversial, and as of late has become more so. His wife, Ginny Thomas, has been identified as a supporter of Donald Trump's "Clown Car Coup" to overturn the 2020 election, and Clarence Thomas himself has been accused of receiving lavish gifts from wealthy Rightists. The tale is that Thomas had been dropping hints that he might resign from SCOTUS because he wasn't making enough money there.

OK, that looks very bad, but it's mostly news reports that may not be reliable. However, British comedian John Oliver -- of the LAST WEEK TONIGHT show -- has taken them at face value, and with a certain Zen has publicly told Thomas: I have such a deal for you!

Oliver announced on LWT in February: "We have a special offer for you tonight. We are prepared to offer you $1 million a year for the rest of your life, if you simply agree to leave the Supreme Court immediately, and never come back."

Oliver also offered to give Thomas a multi-million luxury RV, presumably a converted tour bus -- that reflecting on Thomas' 1999 purchase of a high-end motor home, with friendly financing help from a rich admirer.

Oliver's offer was good for 30 days. Thomas, to no surprise, didn't bite, but early this month Oliver offered it again. Thomas has been complaining as of late about what a nasty place Washington DC is, so maybe he's more willing to bite now.

As Oliver put it in February: "A million dollars a year and a brand new condo on wheels, and all you have to do in return is sign the contract and get the f*** off the Supreme Court." Oliver isn't into subtle British wit. He more believes in scorched earth.

I'm still fond of Oliver's comment from some years back about the Trump Administration being "Stupid Watergate" -- as bad as the original, but "everyone involved is stupid and bad at everything." That was said while Trump was in office; Oliver was wrong ... it was a lot worse than the original in all respects.

DAYLOG THU 16 MAY 24: As reported by VOX, the US Supreme Court has now ruled on the case of the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) V. Community Financial Services Association (CFSA) of America. As is typical of SCOTUS cases, it was complicated.

The CFPB was created as a consequence of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform & Consumer Protection Act of 2010, with the CFPB of course being focused on consumer protection -- one aspect being regulation of financial institutions, plus advice to help them follow the law.

CFSA, on its part, is the trade association of the payday-lending industry -- which has a reputation for predatory business practices and high interest rates. The CFSA wasn't happy with CFPB rules so they sued in 2018, with the Western Texas District Court rejecting the claim.

Of course the CFSA didn't give up, taking the case to the infamously reactionary 5th Circuit Court of appeals -- which declared the CFPB to be unconstitutional, because it has an indirect funding path via the Federal Reserve. The case went up to SCOTUS.

There was a lot at stake: killing off CFPB would throw America's mortgage system into chaos. SCOTUS ruled 7:2 in favor of CFPB, with Justice Clarence Thomas writing the decision for the majority. Even Thomas thought the case was bunkum. Justices Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch dissented, it seems complaining about the indirect funding path through the Fed. The majority replied, in effect: So what? The Constitution is a brief document; it doesn't nail everything down, and it's foolish to pretend it does.

DAYLOG FRI 17 MAY 24: I was saying a few days ago that tales of weak Ukrainian defenses north of Kharkiv sounded like disinformation. UKRAINSKA PRAVDA has now run a story with Zelenskyy saying there were three lines of defense, and the Russians haven't reached the first one.

Zelenskyy also confirmed that it wouldn't make any sense to put the defenses right on the border, because the Russians would always be bombarding them and killing Ukrainian soldiers. In addition, Zelenskyy says the troops are no longer short of artillery ammunition, though air defense is still in a difficult state.

I find it strange that so few people seem to understand that war means disinformation. As of late, I'm particularly wondering if every announcement of a new critical failure in Ukraine's defense -- leaky anti-air capabilities as of late -- means new weapons are coming in to fix the problem. That's how disinformation works: if I'm confused, so are the Orcs.

I'm also suspecting that this offensive is Putin's last big throw. He wants to break Ukraine before the buildup of arms and the depletion of his resources makes it impossible to do. I have to be cautious, since in 2023 I underestimated Putin, not realizing that he would mobilize Russia to such a degree to pursue his war. However, Putin can't sustain his war effort indefinitely, and the odds are shifting against him.

* I'm using the DeviantArt DreamUp image generator these days ... nothing risque, all "safe for viewing". I focus on glam and I have female followers -- some of them may be DC, of course, but they may just like the styles.

I did Joe Biden as "Joe B-Wan Kenobi"; it took a lot of tries, but I finally got something that worked. DreamUp still does a bad job drawing hands, and can come up with weird hallucinations like three legs or the like. Hands are actually very complicated, humans have a hard time drawing them. For now, DreamUp tends to hide hands, putting them in pockets or such. I wish they'd fix that stuff.

Anyway, when I posted the Joe B-Wan Kenobi image to DeviantArt, to my surprise I got a MAGA troll bad-mouthing JB. When I was on Xitter I saw trolls all the time, but I'm not used to them any more. I just blocked him. I was a little apprehensive that the trolling would ramp up -- but it didn't. I don't think trolling gets much traction on DeviantArt. In any case, trolling is in decline.

AND SO ON: In news of the Gaza Crisis, it is now being reported that Benny Gantz -- a member of Israel's War Cabinet and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's main political rival -- said he would leave the government on 8 June if it did not come up with a new war plan that sets up an international, Arab, and Palestinian administration to handle civilian affairs in Gaza.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, another member of the Cabinet, has also called for a plan for Palestinian administration, and said in a speech that he wouldn't agree to Israel's continued occupation of Gaza. The USA, on its part, has called for a revitalized Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza with assistance from Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, on a path towards eventual statehood. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is headed to Israel to push those plans.

In response to Gantz's ultimatum, Netanyahu said his conditions would amount to "defeat for Israel, abandoning most of the hostages, leaving Hamas intact, and establishing a Palestinian state." If Gantz pulls out, Netanyahu will be even more dependent on hard-liners who want Israel to reoccupy Gaza, encourage the "voluntary emigration" of Palestinians from the territory, and reestablish Jewish settlements that were removed in 2005.

Polls show that Netanyahu would be driven from office if new elections were held, with Gantz most likely to replace him. That would likely mark the end of Netanyahu's long political career and expose him to prosecution over longstanding corruption charges. Although it's hard to be optimistic when it comes to Israel versus the Palestinians, it does seem like there's finally an opportunity to dramatically alter the playing board -- but Netanyahu will have to go first.

[MON 27 MAY 24] THE WEEK THAT WAS 21

DAYLOG MON 20 MAY 24: I've just finished reading Hunter Biden's memoirs, an appalling narrative of a three-year binge of booze and cocaine that's not such a pleasant read. He wrote it mostly to publicly confess and set the record straight.

HB is clean & sober now, grappling with two Federal court cases -- one for illegal possession of a firearm, the other for tax delinquency. HB had come to a plea bargain that let him off easy, but the courts didn't like it, so the Feds threw the book at him.

I got to wondering what to make of the court cases and dug into legal analyses online. The firearms case was based on the fact that he lied when he bought a pistol, saying he wasn't a drug user. Incidentally, Hallie Biden -- the widow of Hunter's deceased brother Beau, Hunter and Hallie having got together after Beau's death -- found the pistol and got rid of it. Given how unstable Hunter's behavior was at the time, Hallie must've found the pistol frightening. In any case, while Hunter is facing a maximum penalty of 25 years, the reality is that nobody ever does time in such a case if they don't have a rap sheet.

It's pretty much the same for the tax case. The IRS typically just wants their money, with penalties applied, and HB made restitution. It is very unusual for such a case to continue after that. One suspects the defense in both cases will be on the basis of "selective prosecution".

Incidentally, HB managed to get out of his doom spiral in 2019, when he met Melissa Cohen, an activist and film-maker of South African origins. They got married only a week after meeting. At the outset, he told her he was a crackhead; she replied: "Not any more."

Once they got together, MC went through his bags and threw out drug kit; when HB's pusher "friends" showed up at the door, she told them to get lost or she'd call the cops. She wouldn't let him go to the bathroom at night unattended, she changed the password on his notebook so he could only get in if she let him, and when she had to leave him alone, she'd take his wallet, car keys, and phone. It appears she was experienced in dealing with addicts. Aside from the court cases, everything seems OK now.

DAYLOG TUE 21 MAY 24: Donald Trump's Manhattan "hush money" trial has gone to the jury, with a verdict likely next week. On Monday afternoon, the testimony for the defense went off the rails.

Attorney Robert Costello, a longtime Trump ally, testified about a meeting he had with Michael Cohen -- the central witness for the prosecution -- in April 2018 after the FBI raided Cohen's home and office, with Costello attacking Cohen's credibility. The prosecution kept raising objections to Costello's testimony, which Judge Juan Merchan sustained. Costello could be heard sighing theatrically and saying "ridiculous" or "jeez" from the witness stand.

Not even 15 minutes into his testimony, the judge called a stop and sent the jury out of the courtroom. The judge then read the riot act to Costello:

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Costello said he understood, but Judge Merchan did not like his demeanor, angrily asking: "Are you staring me down?!" The judge then told all 60 reporters to clear the courtroom. The court transcript had him saying to Costello and defense attorney Emil Bove:

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Bove said he understood. Costello asked if he could "say something," but the judge cut him off: "This is not a conversation." Costello replied: "OK." After the exchange, everyone was brought back in, and there were no further problems.

Legal observers noted that it was nothing unusual for defendants to get into fights with a judge, but Costello is an attorney and should know better. In any case, we have to wait on the verdict. I'm not betting it will go well for Trump.

Incidentally, Tony "The Mooch" Scaramucci, a prominent Trump critic from the Right, commented recently: "My wife hates him almost as much as Melania does!" Oh, the shade!

DAYLOG WED 22 MAY 24: The conversation on Spout got around to the currently Right-dominated Supreme Court, and what to do about it. There's been talk of "court-packing", but it's not a good idea -- each side would pack the court on taking office, reducing SCOTUS to chaos. An 18-year term limit would do the job. By the time it was implemented, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and John Roberts would be over the limit and gone. SCOTUS would then shift from 6:3 Right to 6:3 Left.

I commented that Roberts wasn't particularly a problem compared to Thomas and Alito, a claim that was challenged: I'zNt RoBerTz aZ bAd aZ the oTHerZ?!!! No, not really; he is generally respected as a person, and has judged toward the middle many times -- saving ObamaCare for example. The problem with Roberts is that he is a conservative, and conservatism is dying. If it was ever credible, it isn't now. Roberts needs to go into honorable retirement.

That got some flak as well, to which I replied: "I'm willing to give the benefit of doubt." Yeah, I'm intellectually cautious, have some skepticism of what I hear, and prefer to focus on what I'm more certain of. I said: "I'll even give TRUMP the benefit of the doubt." That definitely got some flak, to which I replied: "I don't believe Trump is guilty of ALL the things he's accused of. Just most of them."

DAYLOG THU 23 MAY 24: The fighting in Ukraine roars on, but Ukrainian resistance is stiffening. There's no shortage of shells now, and the AFU has been steadily knocking Orc Su-25 attack aircraft out of the sky -- the Su-25s, it seems, being used to drop KAB glide bombs. The Su-25s won't get near the front lines, so it appears the AFU is being stocked with long-range anti-air weapons -- exactly what kind is unclear. F-16s are supposed to arrive soon, which hints that they may already be in the fight, firing newer long-range AMRAAM missiles.

That is welcome to all except Putin, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not happy, saying: "Our partners fear that Russia will lose this war." -- and that weapons deliveries are always a year too late.

What the Allies fear is that, in response to provocations, Putin will start launching missiles at the Baltic States, Poland, even Finland. Like Putin wouldn't do it? Yes he would. As far as arms deliveries go, NATO was not ready for this war and did not have so much to spare. Ramping up production can't be done overnight. A fundamental rule of warfare is that the time required to build up to attack an adversary gives the adversary the exact same amount of time to prepare for the attack. Getting ahead means finding an edge.

Of course, Zelenskyy's hot talk may be partly disinformation, with a different story being told behind closed doors. The hot talk may also be signaling a change in Allied doctrine. As an interesting possibility, could the Allies start conducting air patrols over Ukraine to shoot down Russian missiles? That sounds plausible. French President Macron may be the signpost for where things are going. If he starts talking up actions, they may already be in motion.

As a footnote, it appears that the Russian offensive that jumped off on 10 May was moved up in response to resumption of US arms shipments to Ukraine. That tends to confirm my suspicion that Putin is conducting a "go for broke" offensive -- knowing that time is not really on his side.

DAYLOG FRI 24 MAY 24: The 6JAN21 Capitol riot has led to charges for about 1,400 participants, with almost 900 being sentenced and two-thirds of them receiving jail sentences ranging from a few days to 22 years.

Today, sentence was passed on Christopher J. Quaglin -- an electrician from New Jersey, who was convicted of assaults on police officers during the riot -- by District Judge Trevor McFadden, who incidentally was appointed by Donald Trump. Quaglin had taken pride of his role in the riot and was not contrite with Judge McFadden, even attacking the judge: "You're Trump's worst mistake of 2016." The judge suggested that such remarks were a bad idea at sentencing, with Quaglin persisting: "It's a kangaroo court."

Judge McFadden gave at least as good as he got, calling Quaglin "a menace to society", that his actions were "shocking and lawless", concluding: "What an outrage -- what a disgrace!" Quaglin got 12 years; only 7 other rioters have got longer sentences. Maybe the bottom line here is that Trump and MAGA are steep decline and have no future -- exiting the stage not with a bang, but with a whimper.

AND SO ON: Late-breaking reports are coming in from Ukraine that air-launched Small Diameter [Glide] Bombs being used in combat "to good effect". Since the original SDB is GPS-guided & the Orcs are jamming GPS, we can bet the SDBs in use either have laser guidance, or are the smarter SDB-2s. Ground-launched SDBs may be coming up soon.

I'm always baffled at people online who think they are smarter than the people who are actually fighting the war. Me, I'm just trying to figure out what is actually going on, when there's so little information -- and much of that is actually disinformation. It's interesting to piece together the puzzle, though some of the pieces are secret, and will be a big surprise when they come to light.

* As reported in an article from CNBC.com ("How Biden Is Winning Over Corporate America Behind Closed Doors" by Rebecca Picciotto, 20 May 2024), President Joe Biden has made it clear since he took office that he's willing to take on big business and billionaires -- putting on a show of union support, aggressive antitrust regulation, a crackdown on "junk fees" trying to raise taxes on the wealthy, and blaming corporate greed for inflation. A recent White House declaration called out Big Pharma, grocery chains, credit card companies, airlines, and student debt creditors for "price gouging," one of the Biden Administration's standard lines of attack.

The business community is not happy with being called out, and invariably sues the Biden Administration for every regulatory action it takes. However, Joe has also made it clear that he is not interested in crushing business, instead trying to persuade them to play fair. Behind closed doors, things are not quite so hostile. Neil Bradley, a senior official at the US Chamber of Commerce, suggests that the public tone of the White House sometimes goes "too far", but still says:

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Early in May, Biden and his cabinet hosted eight executives at the White House for a private roundtable where they talked about infrastructure investment, geopolitical issues and the US economy's performance relative to the rest of the world. The next day, Biden visited the battleground state of Wisconsin to play up a $3.3 billion USD investment to build an artificial intelligence data center from Microsoft.

Biden has built a pro-labor, pro-consumer economic brand, but he needs the help of industry leaders to make private infrastructure investments, and their support could be useful in the elections in November. Senior White House officials have been calling up business CEOs, while those same CEOs have been invited to the White House to get their views on what to do to achieve the administration's agenda -- while battles between the two sides go on in court.

Biden and the business community know they need each other. Bradley says:

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