* This is an archive of my own blog and online notes, with weekly entries collected by month. The current week in stand-alone format is available here. Feel free to CONTACT ME if so inclined.
DAYLOG MON 27 JAN 25: As discussed in an article from SCIENCEMAG.org ("The parting of water" by Robert F. Service, 23 jan 25), there's been a lot of interest in "green hydrogen" -- hydrogen fuels produced by renewable energy -- but not so much progress in production.
At present, only about a million tonnes of green hydrogen is produced a year, not even a single percent of the perceived need. Hydrogen is produced in large quantities, but overwhelmingly using natural gas, which is hardly a "green" process.
Green hydrogen is primarily dependent on "electrolyzers", chemical cells that split water into hydrogen and oxygen -- they're the bottleneck. Costs have been steadily dropping, with the US Department of Energy (DOE) driving a program to cut costs to $1/kilogram by 2031.
The leading electrolyzer technology today is the "alkaline water electrolyzer". It is a cell with two electrodes in an electrolyte separated by a semipermeable membrane. Applying a voltage across the electrodes breaks down water into H2 & O2. The AWE can get by with relatively cheap nickel or stainless-steel catalysts. However, it doesn't do well with intermittent renewable power sources, and scaling up output is tricky. Researchers are tinkering with tricks to see if the obstacles can be overcome.
The runner-up today is the "proton-exchange membrane (PEM)" electrolyzer, which reverses the applied voltage, and dumps the electrolyte for a solid polymer. PEM handles irregular power and is easier to scale up. Unfortunately, it is much more vulnerable to corrosion and is accordingly expensive to build. There's also "anion exchange membrane (AEM)" electrolyzers, but they aren't as far along and have challenges, too.
If green hydrogen production is scaled up, there's the question of building the storage and transport infrastructure for it -- which is at least an understood issue. Those working in the field see it has challenges, but do not see them as insurmountable.
DAYLOG TUE 28 JAN 25: I went to bed last night feeling the bad news of everything way too much, not getting a good night's sleep. I was thinking: Why not just cave in? That led eventually to the follow-on question: What does that mean?
Further consideration led to the conclusion: See it all out to the end. Yeah, things are going badly, but the Trump Gang pretends to be much bigger and badder than it really is. I'm looking forward to the push-back, and it will happen. We'll get more things going our way, we'll win some. What will happen in the end? I don't know. Chances are good I'll outlive Trump, so there's that.
Trump goes, that's half the battle. In the meantime, I keep a low profile and see what I can make of myself. Funny is that I get worried -- and then suddenly it stops, and I go back to normal. I didn't used to be like that.
* Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said in an interview that Ukraine made a big mistake in giving up its nuclear weapons -- to which I replied on BlueSky that nuclear Ukraine was a myth. The Russians had full control over those weapons and weren't going to hand them over. Ukraine had no capability to support a nuclear force and they would have been a practical liability -- but maintained a fiction that they were Ukraine's to get help in disposing of them.
The Budapest Memorandum outlined the terms. The Budapest Memorandum did not provide security guarantees -- it just said the signatories would not attack Ukraine, and they would consult with each other if one of them decided to do so. The Russians broke the agreement; the Western partners decided to provide military aid. Of course, that didn't mean going to war with Russia; NATO is a defensive alliance and has no mandate for doing that.
In response to my comments, some people loudly objected -- but they were all making stuff up, with no recourse to facts. You're not trying to have a real discussion here, are you? I blocked them all immediately.
What is Zelenskyy trying to do by making such false assertions? I think he's just trying to ease the pressure of the war on himself. That's understandable, but still exasperating.
DAYLOG WED 29 JAN 25: Ukraine's long-range drone attacks on Russian assets appears to be ramping up considerably in the new year, with reports of strikes two or three times a week. The attacks are targeting chemical plants and in particular oil infrastructure.
Two of Russia's biggest refineries, at Ryazan and Niznhy Novgorod, were recently hit, with Russian air defenses unable to cope -- they've just got too much to protect. Ukrainian officials believe that, if this pace can be maintained, Russia will be on its knees in 6 months. There are also, very plausible, reports that Russia is facing a "tsunami" of bankruptcies. Trump is acting very indecisive, even by his generous standards, on Ukraine; if he decides to fully back Ukraine, Putin is going to feel doomed.
What will Putin do if he runs out of options? Flee the country? We'll just have to wait and see. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. Not incidentally, I suspect the Biden Administration played a lot of tricks to limit Trump's actions. I know they worked with NATO to set up a loan program for up to $50 billion USD, paid off by returns on frozen Russian funds, via the World Bank. Now, does that mean the World Bank has control of the frozen funds? So Trump can't give them back to Putin? Hmm.
* Somebody on BlueSky was saying nice things about Chuck Schumer, so I chimed in myself, saying he was good at what he did: "He's hard to argue with, since he won't shut up." Person came back with a confusing response, it seems asking if that were an antisemitic comment.
I replied with: "Huh? What? What kind of silly question is that?" He got mad; I promptly blocked him. Seeking pretexts for offense is a particularly strange kind of trolling, easily cured by blocking. He disappeared forever from my BlueSky space.
DAYLOG THU 30 JAN 25: Trump made some typical mindless comments about chasing all the Palestinians out of Gaza, sending them to Jordan and Egypt. Egyptian strongman Abdel Fattah el-Sisi ("AFeS") did not like that idea at all, saying it would be an "act of injustice".
It certainly would, but AFeS was almost certainly more concerned about having to take care of a flood of refugees -- and worse, subjects of the Hamas Islamic terrorist organization. Egypt doesn't need that kind of trouble.
Miraculously, the cease-fire in Gaza seems to be holding. If it doesn't, the Israelis will more or less exterminate the Palestinians there, with Trump not lifting a finger to stop them. The Israelis might even go on to overrun the West Bank.
The more interesting, if highly speculative, question is: what happens if it does hold? Hamas made a lunatic bet, greatly provoking the Israelis without having the ability to do them decisive harm. Hamas got the response they could have expected to get. Will that lead over the longer run to a better state of things? Hamas knows what will happen if they provoke the Israelis again. Might there be a change in mindset? Not that it could get anywhere for decades; the Israelis are not in a forgiving mood.
* I wrote on BlueSky that Joe Biden was stuck on Gaza: "After the Hamas attack, he had to back Israel or be put down for not doing so -- but then he had to restrain the Israelis, & few of them wanted to be restrained."
Somebody came back griping about "Genocide Joe". I blocked him without reading the full entry -- I don't need that hassle. Somebody else did try to argue with him, so I added: "Joe Biden was in an impossible position, having to back the Israelis while having long angry conversations with Netanyahu. The Israelis would say they were making concessions, then forget they said it."
He got back to me: "I read over and over again that it was Biden's genocide, while NOT once seeing Netanyahu's name associated with it. These voters didn't see that they were being played, as social media users erased Bibi from the crime -- all in order to re-elect his closest ally, who saw beachfront condos."
Further comments discussed TV ads in which Kamala was praised for her single-minded dedication to Israel, with her Jewish husband Doug played up as a Zionist. That should have sounded suspicious in the first place; what made it more suspicious is that these ads were being played in Arab-American locales. It seems likely they were funded by Elon the Musk Rat. Most of the people who swallowed them now refuse to admit they were taken for a ride.
DAYLOG FRI 31 JAN 25: For lack of much better to do with myself in these apocalyptic times, I've been doing a lot of reorganization to settle in for the long haul. I've been giving a lot of things up. I've been trying to teach myself Japanese literally for decades. One thing I got into doing was building language flashcards -- which was too time-consuming and, I finally realized, not very effective. It was a dead end, and a few days back I dropped it.
Along the same lines, I've been constructing a Japanese dictionary and an extensive grammar reference document. I should make much better progress now. I decided to also make new flashcards, complementing the dictionary; I can quickly put them together, using Gemini to generate useful text and an online Japanese dictionary to get images of the characters. It's something positive in my life, when things aren't going well for us.
BACK_TO_TOPDAYLOG MON 03 FEB: Last week the prospect of a Nazi takeover of the USGOV left the realm of comic books and became a frightening reality, with Elon the Musk Rat personally invading USGOV agencies, taking them over, and wrecking them.
If worst comes to worst, what might be done? The only thing I can think of that could work is for the Blue states to get together and declare a Constitutional government under Kamala & Tim. They would then work to get USGOV agencies under their control. The military would be first on the list, to provide security for the other agencies. I passed the idea on to the CO governor and senators. Crazy idea? Maybe less crazy in time, but alas I still don't see it happening. The idea needs to be there in any case.
* Things are crazy NOW & getting worse. Much will be happening this week, with Congress checking out what the Musk Rat has been doing, lawsuits being pressed, and so on. The Trump Gang may back off a bit. Trump appears to be softening on his tariffs war -- it's been getting consistently bad reviews. However, the Trump Gang has had no problem with criming so far, and I'm not expecting them to change their ways. They wouldn't be criming if they had any intention of quitting.
Incidentally, the Musk Rat's raids on USGOV have been aided by a gang of his techs. WIRED identified them and published details. The Musk Rat was outraged, calling it a "crime". More criminal projection from the Musk Rat.
DAYLOG TUE 04 FEB: Trump called off his trade wars with Mexico and Canada for a month, proclaiming victory after getting concessions. In reality, he wasn't getting anything new. Mexico repeatedly deployed troops to the border region during the Biden Administration. It seems that Trump agreed to help stop US guns from going across the border. Similarly, Canada's $1.3 billion USD border protection bill, praised by Trump, was actually introduced in December.
Another item is that Trump has been playing up is a deal with Ukraine to bring the US to the head of the line for Ukraine's rare-earth elements. Actually, the deal had been cooked up during the Biden Administration, but wasn't signed until Trump came into office. The rare earths, it seems, are mostly in the Donbas, under Russian occupation. Trump neither knows nor cares about such things; it's all about the theatrics. He does seem to be peculiarly hung up on tariffs, thinking them a magic cure-all, but they always prove unworkable.
It is likely this is all about distraction anyway, as the Trump Gang reduces the Federal government to chaos. Nobody seems to be able to stop it or even slow it down, but it's hard to think of what might be done. The Black Hats have the easier job: they just wreck things. The only thing that can be done to stop them right away is military intervention, but on thinking it out, I don't see that happening, either.
DAYLOG WED 05 FEB: Bibi Netanyahu visited the White House yesterday, with Trump proclaiming that the USA would "take over" Gaza and turn it into another Riviera. It was not clear how that would happen. Also left unsaid was what would happen to the Palestinians.
Absolutely nobody missed that significant omission, everyone knowing it meant getting rid of the Palestinians in some unspecified way. There was a lot of outrage -- but it really looks like more Trump distraction, conducted while the Musk Rat tears down the US government.
* Since I can't be worried sick all day, I keep trying to stay occupied with other things. KYIV INDEPENDENT wrote up an article on Ukrainian ground drones -- little tracked vehicles used for combat, mining & demining, logistics, medevac, and so on. ARS TECHNICA had a comparable article on air drones, one test unit having two shotguns to blast other drones. Another drone, the "Plisch", has a long extensible radio mast to provide relay or electronic warfare. The war drags on -- for how much longer?
DAYLOG THU 06 FEB: Strange glimmers keep coming through the chaos in Washington DC. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was earlier saying he was talking to Panamanian officials about "undue Chinese influence" [say what?] in Panama, and is now saying the US won't have to pay tolls for the canal. Panamanian officials say that's nonsense. Rubio is also saying that there will be exemptions to the end of USAID. I conclude that the Trump Gang is throwing out still more noise as a distraction.
The USAID exemptions are all for the good if we got them, but who believes anything the Trump Gang says? They only tell the truth by accident. It does seem like dotty old Trump really thinks he's serious when he says crazy things, but his people just humor him.
The crazy ideas are still very troublesome. Trump has been talking about developing Gaza; the Israelis are now talking about facilitating "voluntary relocations" by Palestinians from Gaza. There seems to be a tie there. The idea is monstrous.
PS: Rubio says the USA won't go to the G20 summit in South Africa, saying South African support for diversity and climate-change action is "anti-American". No diversity in RSA? The ocean isn't slowly flooding out his state of Florida? He knows better.
* One Kevin Kruse was snarkily saying on BlueSky:
"Musk isn't going to obey the law, so who cares?"
"The Supreme Court will just throw out the case, so who cares?"
"Republicans aren't going to let us have elections, so who cares?"
Kruse adds: "I'm blocking these people on sight now. Doomerist defeatism isn't helping anyone here." Point taken, stay on positive and do whatever we can, no matter how petty. I get bummed out; better I think to get on track and face the long haul.
The Trump Gang has big weaknesses: they're ignorant, inept, & stupid. Things look really bad right now, but there are glimmers of hope. Big demonstration in from of Treasury building on Tuesday; demonstrations are likely to get bigger.
DAYLOG FRI 07 FEB: I'm bobbing up and down these days. I was feeling remarkably upbeat last night -- not because things are going well, they're not, but because I can only stand to be a nervous wreck for so long. I'm better off in all respects to feel upbeat.
I have ideas of what might help us, but they're just ideas on which I can rest no weight. They tend to be unrealistic, along with being unconstitutional. Tough as it is, we have to play by the rules even if the Trump Gang never does: we can't repair the Constitution by breaking it ourselves. We're stuck with the gangsters for some time, maybe longer than I'll be around. If nothing else, I endure. I'll wait to see if, sometimes, I can make a difference.
* One John Ganz, writing on his blogsite, thinks that comparing the Trump regime to Nazi Germany is off the mark. Ganz thinks it's something thoroughly nasty, but much less formidable: Vichy France.
That makes sense: instead of the bullying juggernaut of Naziism, we've got the fake giant Trump, surrounded by real pygmies. There's no honest enthusiasm among his supporters -- they're just puny, cynical, nihilistic crybabies, always miserably complaining about everything. They're fascists, but mixed in with old-style conservatives who have simply decided to not pretend to have principles any longer, plus tech broligarchs motivated by greed and megalomania. "Vichy America" is not a juggernaut: it is simply decadent and pathetic.
Ganz of course admits things are bad, but he wonders if the Trump Gang, having blitzed the first line of America's defenses, will bog down in deeper defenses. We'll see. In the meantime, like I say online these days: "Do not surrender in advance."
* I wrote on BlueSky: "Here in Loveland CO, there's a Cybertruck running around town. I get the feeling that in a year or two, Cybertrucks will have disappeared, having been spray-painted and otherwise trashed to death."
I added: "A metaphor for the Trump-Musk regime? Do they really have any staying power?" Another reason to endure: surprising things, some good ones, are gonna happen, I want to be here for them. In the end, the crisis has to be seen as a test of personal character. Again: don't surrender in advance.
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