DayVectors

* 22 entries including: capitalism & socialism (series); last tourist trip (series); centipede robots; games for AI | games versus trolls; Prigozhin rebellion | Hunter Biden | Durham Report | Silly String; HEAT-APAM warhead | VERA-EG ESM system | USAF BWB investigation ; self-spreading vaccines; Trump arraigned | Bing generative AI needs work; ultra-processed foods controversy; Trump indictment | Jotform free secure email form for my websites; Festo Air Ray | Airwheel powered luggage | Deloitte Summit building; Wikimedia lawsuit against NSA surveillance; budget deal | GOP distrusts media | securonomics | robocaller busted; London sea level rise plan | Miyake events | multicellularity.

[FRI 30 JUN 23] CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (53)

* CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (53): The growth of the "information economy" in the 1990s linked directly to the work of American economist George Akerlof (born 1940), who became famous for his 1970 article, "The Market For Lemons", which examined the market for used cars.

What Akerlof pointed to was the "information asymmetry" between a would-be buyer -- let's call her "Alice" -- out to purchase a used car, and the used-car salesman -- "Bob" -- offering to sell them. While salesman Bob knows the condition of the used cars, Alice does not, and of course Bob is going to say all his cars are in great shape in hopes of unloading a lemon on her. This is bad for Alice; what makes it worse is that Bob is not going to sell a good car for more than the "lemons", since that would identify the lemons. The result is that he has more incentive to sell lemons than good cars, since he makes more profit on them. Lack of transparency leads to a market failure.

That sounds obvious, but economists didn't think in such terms before Akerlof, instead generally assuming that buyers and sellers were working on a level playing field, both sides having "perfect information" about the deals they were making. The problem was that no business operation is entirely transparent in its dealings, and some -- like used cars -- are notoriously less transparent than others. Lawyers have long had a reputation for, at least sometimes, exploiting their clients' ignorance of the law to fleece them.

Akerlof didn't get a warm reception when he tried to get his article published, one editor rejecting it as "trivial". It was published and caught on, seeding the creation of the field of "information economics". Economists began to realize that "adverse selection" -- when lack of transparency makes lemons more profitable than good cars -- was nothing unusual.

A particularly significant example was health insurance. People who buy health insurance pay a premium, and the insurer then pays medical bills when their clients get sick. This leads to two problems:

• Insurers don't want to take on clients who already have health problems, or in other words have "pre-existing conditions".
  
  
• People who are healthy tend to not want to pay for health insurance, being too short-sighted to realize that insurers won't want to sell them policies once they had a pre-existing condition. "Free-riding" the insurance system doesn't work for anyone over the long run.

In countries that had national health insurance systems, the government imposed rules to ensure coverage of pre-existing conditions, and didn't allow people to free-ride the system. In the USA, which in the 1990s didn't have any sort of national health-insurance system -- except for Medicare for the elderly -- the health insurance system was gradually being dragged down into market failure.

Of course, in general markets continue to function, with American economist A. Michael Spence (born 1943) describing how economic players generate informational "signals" to influence economic transactions. His most specific example was how job seekers acquire qualifications, most notably degrees from prestigious universities, to encourage prospective employers to hire them. In more mundane terms, the success of the McDonald's hamburger fast-food chain has in good part been due to the fact that people who buy hamburgers at a McDonald's know exactly what they are going to get, with the franchise priding itself on its uniformity. In the same way, in modern supermarkets well-known brand labels generally hold their own against cheaper "store labels" because the store labels are unknowns. However, brand labels have been in gradual decline against store labels as consumers become more familiar with them.

When Akerlof was a student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1960s, he was friends with another student, Joseph Stiglitz (born 1943), who would become an economic adviser to the Clinton Administration, and later worked for the World Bank. Stiglitz came from Gary, Indiana, a steel and industrial town that had, by the 1990s, fell to rust. Stiglitz was perfectly aware of the unemployment, poverty, and systemic racism that came in the wake of economic failures, saying: "Having seen the downside of a market economy, it would be hard to be euphoric about its marvels."

When Stiglitz was at the World Bank, he saw that World Bank and IMF officials had embraced the Reagan Revolution, being enthusiastic in encouraging poor countries to adopt free-market policies, such as opening up their economies to foreign flows of money. Such investment, so the theory went, would mean new factories and infrastructure, leading to rapid development. The problem was that lenders didn't necessarily know much about who they were lending to, and the borrowers didn't necessarily understand the strings attached to the loans. The results could be calamitous for both parties.

Akerlof, Spence, and Stiglitz shared the Nobel Prize for economics in 2001, "for their analyses of markets with asymmetric information." In his acceptance speech, Stiglitz said the reason the "invisible hand" of the markets is invisible is because it doesn't really exist -- or to the extent it does, it's paralyzed. [TO BE CONTINUED]

[THU 29 JUN 23] INVASION OF THE CENTIPEDE ROBOTS

* INVASION OF THE CENTIPEDE ROBOTS: Roboticists traditionally have focused on imitating humans, but as discussed in detail here in 2012, they also like to use other animals as models. As discussed in an article from SCIENCEMAG.org ("Centipedes, The Envy Of Engineers, Inspire A New Generation Of Robots" by Elizabeth Pennisi, 24 February 2022), one Daniel Goldman -- a biological physicist at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) -- has taken a particular interest in the centipede, determining just these creatures get around, with his research team now having created a centipede robot.

Centipedes typically don't really have a hundred legs; they have two legs per body segment, with a variable number of segments -- ranging from 15 to 191, depending on species, sometimes varying within species, the number of segments always being odd. They have evolved to make good use of their many legs, with Matthew McHenry -- a biomechanist at the University of California in Irvine -- saying they have "speed, elegance, and efficiency that are the envy of engineers."

The problem was figuring out how they got around, since tracking the motions of their numerous legs was very difficult. Goldman was inspired when one of his postdocs, electrical engineer Yasemin Ozkan-Aydin -- now a roboticist at the University of Notre Dame -- hooked two or three four-legged robots together. She found out the longer machines could cross wider gaps and clamber over bigger obstacles, even on natural terrain. Goldman decided to work from there, with Eva Erickson -- one of his undergrads -- used a sophisticated video-tracking program named "DeepLabCut" to investigate the movements of the centipede Scolopocryptops sexspinosus.

She found that normally, S. sexspinousus's legs move in a wave, like fingers drumming on a tabletop, but sometimes, the direction of the wave changes. On flat surfaces, the wave starts with the last leg and goes headward, but when the going gets tough, the wave reverses, with the front leg moving first to gain a foothold. After that, each leg follows behind, landing in the exact same spot as the previous leg. The taller the obstacles, the more likely the centipede is to adopt this "retrograde" locomotion.

Kelimar Diaz, a Georgia Tech grad student, similarly investigated how centipedes respond to being dunked in water. Videos showed that the species Lithobious forficatus starts to "swim" by flailing its legs -- but then it quickly decides to twist its body from side to side, at which point it moves forward. Diaz says: "Somehow, the centipedes know that undulating their bodies generates the right forces."

Baxi Chong, another grad student in the lab, analyzed how separate waves in the legs and the bodies sync up. To predict which combination of body waves and stepping works best, he used a mathematical modeling technique first proposed by particle physicists. The model produced numerous combinations of leg and body waves, which he then tested in a centipede robot built to test how these animals move. First, Chong programmed the robot to move its legs and body in sync -- but he quickly found out the robot was faster when there was a lag between the two waves. Further testing revealed some combinations made the robot move backward.

Later work by Goldman's group has found the robot works better if its legs are jointed and the body segments are pliable. Goldman's latest robots are flexible, and they combine the speed of a cockroach with the reach of a snake. Jake Socha -- a comparative biomechanist at Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, who was not involved in the work -- says that the investigations

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The next step, Goldman says, is to train them to do practical tasks, such as weed identification and eradication. Working with Philip Benfey, a plant development biologist at Duke University, Goldman plans to fit his robots with artificial intelligence software that can single out individual weeds, with the robot using herbicides, a laser, or electrical discharge to kill them. Ozkan-Aydin goes farther, envisioning an era when swarms of robotic centipedes will be commonplace: planting and harvesting crops, moving goods, monitoring the environment, and even space exploration. Those who don't like centipedes may not enjoy it, however.

[WED 28 JUN 23] THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (5)

* THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (5): I got to thinking later in April that I would still like to photo-shoot the NASM facility on the National Mall when it re-opens. That led me to wonder: what if I took a night flight from DIA to Dulles, rode the Metro into DC in the morning, toured the National Mall, and then got an evening flight back to Denver? I'd get my sleep on the jetliner and the airport.

Since I would have to go through security checkpoints at the museums, I wouldn't be able to take much kit along with me -- about as much as I would carry to the super to shop. I did a flight scheduling on Expedia and it seemed to work out. Of course, the NASM facility won't fully re-open until 2025, so I put it on the back burner.

However, a few days after that, I got to considering a trip I was planning to take to Spokane, Washington, next year for my niece Jordy's wedding. I was thinking about maybe going further to Seattle to get photos at the Museum of Flight (SMOF) there -- but that would likely turn a four-day trip into a week-long trip, and I didn't like that idea.

That led, eventually, to thinking: Why not do a one-day air trip to Seattle? I looked over airline options on Expedia, and found I could get a round-trip ticket on Wednesday, 10 May for $238 USD, getting me into Seattle-Tacoma (SeaTac) Airport at 0800 AM, back in Denver by midnight.

Getting from SeaTac to the SMOF was a bit of a puzzle, but not too much of one. I thought of using Lyft again, but checking showed me that would cost almost $40 USD each way. I did some poking around in the (Puget) Sound Transit website, and found I could take light rail from SeaTac to the Tukwila transfer station and get on Bus Route 124 to go straight to the SMOF. The Sound Transit website was not at all clear on how to use the system, but it seemed like it would cost me like about $8 USD. I could get to the museum in an hour. I'd spend a few hours at the SMOF, then reverse the trip back to Seatac.

Given this was a day trip, I didn't need to take much luggage; I could rely on my waist pack, with a camera case on the belt. I ordered a dual smartphone holster from Amazon to also put on the belt, and bought a small laptop computer bag that I could put under an airline seat. I already had a laptop bag, but it hadn't proven satisfactory -- the new one having a useful array of pockets lacking in the old one.

Incidentally, it turned out that Jordy is planning on getting married at Roche Harbor on San Juan Island in Puget Sound, not in Spokane. I did some trip planning to see how I could get there, and it turned out it would take two days each way -- I'd have to take a shuttle boat, and it only runs once a day, out in the morning, back in the afternoon. I told her I'd have to pass.

[TUE 27 JUN 23] GAMES FOR AI / GAMES VERSUS TROLLS

* GAMES FOR AI: As discussed in a press release from the University of Agder (UiA) in Norway, machine learning (ML) systems are "trained" by being fed large datasets to pick out patterns from them. It can be troublesome to accumulate and handle a big enough dataset, so in some case a system can be trained through simulation. For example, an ML system designed to play a game can play games against itself thousands of times, becoming more proficient at playing the game.

Per-Arne Andersen, of UiA's Information & Communications Technology (ICT) department, accordingly decided to simulate industrial processes with straightforward games, and have an ML system train itself by playing the games. Andersen developed six games that were easy to play, and required little computing power.

The game "Deep Warehouse" was specially designed to evaluate the security of algorithms in automated warehouses. In such warehouses, robots perform tasks such as registering orders, picking up goods, and packing them for shipment. Those playing the game can alter the system to find process improvements. Andersen's ML system has a "dream" algorithm to come up with new approaches to the process, with Andersen saying:

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Andersen sees his games simulations as particular valuable in potentially hazardous industrial environments:

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Andersen's games and algorithms are available from the Center for Artificial Intelligence Research (CAIR) at UiA, with the package named "CAIRL".

* GAMES VERSUS TROLLS: As discussed in a related article from ECONOMIST.com ("Games Are A Weapon In The War On Disinformation", 5 April 2023), games are also proving useful as a tool for educating people to recognize disinformation.

Consider, for example, the free online game named "Cat Park". The backstory is that the mayor of the player's city has announced a new public project: a park for cats. The player, acting as an outraged troll, starts campaigning against the park on social media, sending out inflammatory posts and snide meme; then moving up to photoshopping imagery to play up the mayor as a member of a deviant cat-worshipping secret cult; and ultimately encouraging followers to take physical action against the mayor. Gameplay lasts about 15 minutes.

Cat Park was funded by the Global Engagement Center (GEC), a branch of the US State Department which aims to "recognize, understand, expose and counter foreign state and non-state propaganda and disinformation efforts." It's part of a trend towards international efforts to leash in the weaponization of social media, the goal being to educate people to judge the truthfulness of what they read online. In 2022 a study by Ofcom, a British regulator, found that 30% of the country's adults hardly consider the truthfulness of information they read online. About 6% gave no thought to the veracity of stories, while about a quarter couldn't spot fake social-media accounts.

Cat Park was developed by Tilt Studio of the Netherlands. It wasn't Tilt's first effort; the company has also worked with the British government, the European Commission, and NATO to create games that tackle online trolls. In 2020 Tilt collaborated with the GEC on "Harmony Square", in which players attempt to destabilize a peaceful neighborhood by spreading vicious lies. During the pandemic, Tilt released "Go Viral!", a five-minute game that gets players to evaluate misleading information about COVID-19.

Tilt's games are based on the idea of "active inoculation", with exposure to the games building up resistance to trolling. A study by the University of Cambridge found that players of Harmony Square were better at spotting fraudulent content and less likely to share it. The effect was consistent across Right-wing and Left-wing players.

The Canadian government, working on a parallel track, helped fund "Lizards and Lies", a board game about information warfare. It's in the form of a traditional map-based wargame, in which a player can be one of four characters: an "edgelord", "conspiracy theorist", "platform moderator", or "digital literacy educator" -- players being either "spreaders" or "stoppers" of lies. Cards and tokens help players win over enclaves of supporters; points are scored for each social-media network a player control. The networks are weighted, some being friendlier to trolling than others.

Scott DeJong, the designer, says he was partly inspired by the QAnon conspiracy theory, which itself makes use of gaming techniques to acquire and motivate followers. DeJong says: "Disinformation and conspiracy-theory processes are often like puzzles. They draw people in by seeming to ask questions, while really directing the target towards a specific answer." The originator of the theory, Q, posts "drops", or cryptic clues, "that the community works together to interpret and resolve".

DeJong believes that games "are great tools for asking questions", and can reach people who are turned off by more conventional educational methods. "Gamification" is not a new concept, but it's only now starting to demonstrate what it can do.

[MON 26 JUN 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 25

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: The news this last week was dominated by Yevgeny Prigozhin, boss of the Russian Wagner mercenary force. For months, Prigozhin had been publicly complaining about the Russian war in Ukraine, in particular taking shots at Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. On Friday, Prigozhin announced that Russian regular forces had attacked Wagner mercenaries, with Prigozhin continuing his blasts against Shoigu, and even denouncing the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin went public to call Prigozhin a "traitor" and said Russian forces would crush his rebellion. In the meantime, Wagner forces seized Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, while driving on Moscow.

Mass confusion resulted around the world, with speculations gone out of control. The confusion got worse the next day when Prigozhin called off the rebellion, a deal having been struck with Putin. Prigozhin went off to Belarus, where he had been offered sanctuary. Nobody honestly believed he would be safe in Minsk; it is unlikely he thought it either, since he knew the system from the inside. There were thoughts that he went to Belarus to coordinate a Wagner drive on Kiev, but that doesn't sound like a workable idea.

The confusion continues, nobody having a clear idea of what had just happened -- the only thing being obvious was that things are not going well in the Kremlin. For now, things have gone quiet, but they are unlikely to stay that way. Incidentally, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a notorious blowhard, announced while things were going to the devil that his personal troops would protect Putin's regime. Observers believed Kadyrov had no intention of taking any action. In any case, in the aftermath of the excitement, a meme went around on Twitter: "Putin beginning to believe three-day operation to take Kyiv not going as planned."

* In much less significant news Hunter Biden -- President Biden's wayward son -- announced that he had come to a plea deal with Federal prosecutors over charges of tax fraud and violation of firearms laws. It is generally believed that he won't do any time, just probation and community service.

The MAGA brigade online and in Congress were outraged -- in particular being annoyed that Hunter Biden got off so easy, while Trump is in so much boiling hot water over mishandling classified documents. MSNBC's Steve Benen pointed out there was no evidence the White House had done anything to interfere with or influence the prosecution, and added that the prosecutor had been appointed by Trump. When asked about the conclusion of the case, President Biden said: "I'm very proud of my son." That was the only really good answer; Hunter Biden had taken ownership and was working to get his life under control, so his dad had good reason to be pleased.

Benen contrasted Hunter Biden's cooperative attitude with Trump's blatant efforts to confound the investigation against him, and concluded:

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* In somewhat related news, last week John Durham -- who had been appointed a "special counsel" late in the Trump Administration, to "investigate the investigation" of Russian involvement in the 2016 election -- was at the center of a Congressional hearing that was a perfect fizzle, with Steve Benen reporting:

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Representative Ted Lieu (D-CA) grilled Durham mercilessly, calling him a "partisan hack". It is certain that Jim Jordan and friends will continue to declare "complete victory" in yet another one of their foolish investigations -- but only fools are fooled. It is sad to see such a performance from John Durham, who once had a reputation as a competent and honest prosecutor. As with so many people who threw their lot in with Trump, he now has a reputation for neither.

* I go for a walk in the morning five days a week, and usually pick up litter. The litter is typically plastic bottles or cigarette boxes and the like, but this last week I found an empty spray can of "Silly String" -- y'know, press the spray button and a colored plastic string shoots out.

I got to wondering how anyone invented such a useless novelty -- OK, all such novelties are useless -- and looked it up. Silly String goes back to a 1972 patent by Leonard Fish and Robert Cox, an inventor and a chemist respectively, who had been working on a spray-on cast for injured limbs. They came up with a formulation that worked, but then they got to playing with different nozzles for the spray can, and found one that shot out a string. Fish thought it might be a fun toy, and the two went to the Wham-O company, which had made the frisbee famous, to pitch the idea.

Wham-O officials liked the idea and produced Silly String in a range of colors including blue, red, and green. The Car-Freshner company bought up rights to Silly String in 1997, and manufactures it today. Similar toys have included "Goofy String", "Streamer String", "Wacky String", and "Nickelodeon Smatter".

[FRI 23 JUN 23] CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (52)

* CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (52): The economic boom of China in the 1990s was part of a general trend in the developing world. The star players were Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa -- what would accordingly be known as the BRICS. Their development was unequal, however, China being well in the lead, India following up, Brazil most significantly focused on agriculture, Russia on oil and gas, while South Africa tended to get bogged down in government corruption.

The rise of China economically overshadowed Japan, but in the meantime other East Asian countries -- Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan -- boomed as international trade surged. They had been doing well from the 1960s, but the curve turned further upward in the 1990s. These three countries, along with Hong Kong, became known as the "Four Asian Tigers" or the "Four Dragons".

In all four of the Tigers, governments pursued export-oriented industrialization, with tacit or active support from the USA. They invested in infrastructure and education, developing educated work forces. The governments worked to manage budget deficits and restrain debt, as well as maintain stable monetary exchange rates.

On the other side of the Eurasian landmass, during the 1990s the Nordic Countries re-evaluated their generous social policies, from a comprehension that economic growth was tending to stagnate. The result was a revision of the "Nordic model", involving scale-backs on welfare and other social supports, along with a push towards deregulation and a focus on the virtues of markets. It didn't amount to abandoning the model, it was once again just trying to find the right balance.

Along with the rise of the global economy, personal computing began to boom in the 1990s, with the price-performance ratio of computing hardware skyrocketing. The most important development, however, was the introduction of the World-Wide Web in the early 1990s. The Web gave a "user interface" to the internet, where individuals, organizations, and governments from around the world could create multimedia "websites" to provide information and conduct business. Email also became widespread -- though the rise of a global computer network was accompanied by a parallel rise in cybercrime.

This was only the most visible manifestation of the information revolution brought on by computing. By the 1990s, pioneering personal-computing companies like Apple and Microsoft were major economic players -- while IBM, long the king of mainframe computers, was in decline. Microsoft's business dominance led the Clinton Administration to take antitrust actions against the company. The litigation proved expensive and lengthy, with Microsoft forced to make concessions on business practices.

In any case, with the personal computing revolution, the shift away from paper-based organizational procedures accelerated greatly, with a particular impact in manufacturing. Instead of paper blueprints in files, specifications were kept in digital format. The digital specifications could be translated into virtual 3D models, allowing them to be inspected before they were actually built -- and the specs could be translated into parts, either using computer-controlled tools or, indirectly, using the tools to create moulds and dies. In the meantime, production lines became ever more automated.

The same sort of virtual 3D modeling became widespread in graphics and video production. Although traditionally video productions, such as sci-fi epics, had used hand-crafted models, they were no longer necessary when virtual models could do the job. Elaborate and detailed animations became easier to achieve. At home, video game consoles used 3D graphics technology to support ever more detailed and sophisticated games, leading to a long boom in the gaming industry. The era of the arcade games was over.

With the rise of an information-driven global economy, an international network of fiber-optic cables arose in the 1990s, providing the ability to transfer large volumes of data at high speed around the world. To an extent, however, for computing the 1990s was, like the 1980s, an experimental decade, with diverse efforts to see what could be done with the technology, though the scale was greater than it had been in the 1980s. [TO BE CONTINUED]

[THU 22 JUN 23] WINGS & WEAPONS

* WINGS & WEAPONS: As discussed in an article from THEDRIVE.com ("Laser-Guided Rockets Are Getting New Highly-Versatile Anti-Armor Warhead" by Emma Helfrichl, 9 November 2022), during World War II the US military made good use of a series of unguided rockets -- particularly the 12.7-centimeter (5-inch) "High Velocity Air Rocket (HVAR)". After the conflict, the US Navy standardized on a tube-launched 70-millimeter (2.75-inch) "Folding Fin Air Rocket (FFAR)" -- while, incidentally, also developing the tube-launched 12.7-centimeter "Zuni" unguided rocket.

The FFAR was progressively improved, with the ultimate result being the "Hydra-70" 70-millimeter unguided rocket. Apparently it's called "Hydra" because it can be fitted with a wide range of screw-on warheads, including high explosive, anti-armor, flare, and smoke warheads. About a decade ago, BAE Systems came up with a laser-guidance system for the Hydra-70, using a module that screwed in between the rocket and warhead. The guidance module pops out four fins for guidance, with each fin having a laser sensor near the tip. Apparently some of the longer warheads couldn't be used, since then the missile wouldn't fit into normal launchers.

Now General Dynamics Ordnance & Tactical Systems (GD OTS) has introduced a high-explosive anti-tank anti-personnel anti-materiel (HEAT-APAM) warhead for the Hydra-70. The HEAT-APAM warhead features a hard penetrating nose, with a hollow charge -- an explosive charge with a hollow cone extending into it, to focus blast forward in a jet -- plus a fragmenting body. The new warhead also features a smart proximity fuze, which would be handy, for example, in shooting down drones. The same warhead design may be applicable to other munitions.

* In mid-June 2023, the Dutch government announced it will purchase four "VERA-EG" passive radars for Ukraine -- this being, it seems, the military version of the "VERA-NG" "passive radar" from Czech company ERA.

The VERA-EG is not precisely a radar, being better called a "passive sensor". It generates no signals itself. It consists of a central receiver station and two or three remote receiver stations, set up a few tens of kilometers away. It can passively track targets -- in the air and on the surface -- from their radio emissions, with the "time delay of arrival (TDOA)" of the signals supporting triangulation of the location of the target. Most of the processing is done in the central station.

Up to 200 targets can be tracked at the same time. Civil versions of VERA, it seems, can only track targets using their flight ID transponders. It appears the latest military versions of VERA can track targets even if they aren't emitting, from their reflections of radio emissions from other sources. It is capable of tracking stealthy air targets, presumably because of VERA's wideband receiver capability. VERA can also be used as a signals intelligence system.

* "Blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft" -- flying wing machines that look something like a stingray -- have been discussed here in the past. As discussed in an article from THEDRIVE.com ("Air Force Wants Blended Wing-Body Aircraft Demonstrator Flying By 2026" by Thomas Newdick), now the US Air Force is getting more serious about the concept.

The Pentagon released a request for information (RFI) on BWB aircraft, with companies to provide digital "concepts of design (COD)", for an "advanced aircraft configuration that provides at least 30 percent more aerodynamic efficiency than the Boeing 767 and Airbus A330 families of commercial and military aircraft." The RFI assumes that the efficiency savings will be achieved through a combination of the BWB aerodynamic configuration and "projected 2030 engine technology," which will result in "at least 60 percent mission fuel-burn reduction compared to current-day technology."

The effort may well lead to a flight demonstrator, but for now there's no consideration of an operational aircraft. The BWB is clearly seen as an option for transports or tankers, but could also be useful for electronic warfare, or even as an offensive missile / drone carrier.

[WED 21 JUN 23] THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (4)

* THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (4): I didn't have to be in a rush on the morning of Wednesday, 5 April. I ate breakfast at the Hampton Inn, and took the hotel shuttle to Dulles to pick up my flight. I was surprised to find that security had new walk-through scanners, no muss no fuss, no taking off shoes and such. I had to make a transfer through the Atlanta airport, but it was only an hour. I got back to Denver in the early evening, then took the bus shuttle to the Pikes Peak parking lot to get my car.

At this point, things started to go somewhat wrong. First thing that happened was I found out that I'd lost my Mastercard. Later I mentally backtracked, and realized that I'd carelessly stuffed the card in my pocket after I got my boarding passes for the return trip at Dulles; it probably fell out. No worries, I had my Visa card as a backup.

Second problem was after I stopped at a Fazoli's in north Denver for a spaghetti & meatballs dinner. I didn't have any problem with the dinner, the problem was that there was a mom there with some kids, and one of the little boys was a hyperactive brat who was really out of control, not observing any bounds -- not merely obnoxious, but an accident looking for a place to happen. The mom seemed oblivious, not surprising. I moved away from them, finished my meal, and left as fast as possible.

The drive north to Loveland put me into a traffic jam, as it turned out to be due to an accident. Anyway, I got home, cleaned up, and went to bed. Next day, I killed my Mastercard and ordered a replacement; when I got it a few days later, I used the occasion to update the charging mechanisms for my online accounts -- going to direct bank draft when I could -- and streamlined my passwords a bit. It was a useful exercise.

The trip, despite the difficulties, went well and met its objectives. However, the primary objective was simply to do it and be done with it. I won't ever go on a trip to play tourist again. I do want to see the big Aviation Nation airshow at Nellis AFB, near Las Vegas; it's a day's drive out, a day's drive back. It's typically in early November, but I found out that it was canceled for 2023, to be run in early April 2024. That actually works out better for me, since driving over the Rockies in early November can be hazardous, due to snap blizzards -- I've been caught in such things and they're no fun. There's some hazard in early April, but not as much.

I still want to take a road trip later this year, and I've pretty much settled on a trip to the Balloon Festival in Colorado Springs, about a three-hour drive from Loveland, over Labor Day weekend in early September. I can get up at zero-dark-thirty and get to the city park for the morning balloon launch. I likely won't stay longer than mid-day, getting me back to Loveland early. [TO BE CONTINUED]

[TUE 20 JUN 23] SELF-SPREADING VACCINES?

* SELF-SPREADING VACCINES? -- An article from GIZMODO.com ("Self-Spreading Vaccine Research Could Spin Out of Control" by George Dvorsky, 6 January 2022) proposed an obvious, attractive, and frightening idea: self-spreading vaccines.

Suppose, for example, a virus dangerous to humans is found in chimpanzees. Why not, then, develop a harmless but transmissible variant of the virus, and deliberately infect the chimps with it? The chimps would then be immunized against the dangerous virus, and wouldn't be able to pass it on.

It doesn't take much thought that the mutability of viruses, and the difficulty of predicting what they do after infecting a host, makes this a dangerously dubious proposition. That was certainly the conclusion of a study performed by a research team under Filippa Lentzos from King's College London and Guy Reeves from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, in Ploen DE. According to their report, self-spreading vaccines are "genetically too unstable to be used safely and predictably outside contained facilities."

The idea of self-spreading vaccines is not new, but there seems to be more interest in the concept these days: "Self-spreading vaccine research continues to proceed despite a lack of new information that would compellingly refute long-standing evidence-based norms in virology, evolutionary biology, vaccine development, international law, public health, risk assessment, and other disciplines."

In 2020, biologists Scott Nuismer and James Bull, both at the University of Idaho, argued for self-spreading vaccines in a paper titled "Self-Disseminating Vaccines To Suppress Zoonoses". Self-spreading vaccines do have their attractions for vaccinating wild animals, or reducing the fertility of invasive species. It is particularly attractive to think of using self-spreading vaccines to deal with animal diseases that could jump to humans.

There have been a number of high-profile studies of self-spreading vaccines. Lentzos, Reeves, and colleagues believe it's time to apply the brakes and give the idea a good wire-brushing. It's not immediately clear, they argue, that self-disseminating viruses can be contained or removed from an environment once released, or who would be responsible for the biocontrol agent, should the virus behave unexpectedly or cross national boundaries.

Advocates believe that these viruses could be modified to have short lifespans, but the paper says there is a lack of data on the effectiveness of such measures. Advocates of the idea say these viruses could be modified to have short As for using transmissible vaccines to limit the spread of diseases from animals to humans, the researchers say the "the vast majority of virus species that currently exist are undescribed by science [and make it] very difficult to imagine how the considerable effort necessary to develop and test self-spreading vaccines could identify and then prioritize single viral species circulating in wildlife." That viruses are constantly mutating makes this task all the more troublesome.

The study did not suggest that the idea be banned, instead saying it needed more investigation and a regulatory framework. Bull agrees, recommending conservative approaches, such as creating a vaccine from a benign virus that already exists in a target population, as opposed to modifying an otherwise harmful virus. Work into "gene drives", in which genetic tinkering would be used to control wild species, could provide insights, Bull saying: "Just as gene drive developers have responded to regulatory concerns and have invented new designs with limited potential for spread, it is expected that investment in laboratory studies of transmissible vaccines will also lead to methods that mitigate risks."

[ED: One could imagine that, in the face of a fast-spreading and highly lethal contagious disease, fabricating an even more contagious but much less lethal variant might be the only thing we could do -- though it would be an act of desperation.]

[MON 19 JUN 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 24

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: Donald Trump was arraigned in Miami Federal court on Tuesday on 37 counts of mishandling government documents and obstructing justice. This was the direct result of a mad comedy in which Trump shuffled around boxes of secret documents, lots of them, to evade investigators. Photos showed the boxes piled up in a bathroom -- with a chandelier -- and it seems they were stored in a ballroom as well. There was no security. Trump attempted to get his lawyers to help with the cover-up. The lawyers, realizing they were being dragged into a criminal conspiracy, didn't play along.

After the arraignment, Trump went to a popular Cuban-American restaurant, said meals were on him in front of the cameras, and then quickly left before anyone ordered. CNN's Jake Tapper, on viewing the clip, said:

BEGIN_QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

The news media, at long last, is getting wise to being played by Trump, and he's floundering. Trump is in big trouble; mishandling classified documents, particularly in such a willful fashion, is a serious crime. Worse, he's 100% guilty. It has been pointed out that if he had cooperated with investigators instead of trying to bamboozle them, that would have been the end of it; he might have got a rap on the knuckles at most. If it turns out that any of those documents were obtained by foreign governments, he's going to be in even bigger trouble.

The trial has been assigned to Judge Aileen Cannon, who became notorious when she issued a judgement infamously favorable to Trump over DOJ handling of documents, to be reversed and reprimanded by a superior court. It remains unclear how she will handle the current case: she may spin it for Trump, but she knows she'll get into trouble, and may instead be perfectly scrupulous. She may give Trump every reasonable benefit of the doubt, but all defendants deserve that. We'll see.

Interesting question: what happens if Trump gets a jail sentence? A moment's consideration reveals that putting him behind bars poses difficulties. First, as an ex-president, he needs security; second, there are a lot of people who might try to spring him; and third, he's old and infirm. Not only would Trump need geriatric care -- but if he died in prison, there would be the devil to pay. House arrest is more likely.

Incidentally, one Tristan Snell (@TristanSnell) generated a very professional-looking fake commercial video:

_______________________________________________________________________

   LAW & ORDER:  SPECIAL TRUMP UNIT
      starring:
         ALVIN BRAGG
         LETITIA JAMES
         JACK SMITH
         FANI WILLIS
      and:
         DONALD TRUMP

   LAW & ORDER:  SPECIAL TRUMP UNIT
      created by:
         TRISTAN SNELL
_______________________________________________________________________

* Microsoft's Bing search engine has now obtained a generative AI capability, allowing users to pose questions and get a tailored reply. The first time I tried it, I was impressed -- but the more times I tried it, the worse it looked.

The really damning experiment was when I tried to look up a story going around among the RW trolls, concerning a Tennessee teacher who got into trouble after snatching a crucifix off of a student's neck. I used Google to check, and the only place I could find the story mentioned was in the RW blogosphere. I asked Bing if the story were true, and it replied unambiguously YES.

The problem was that Bing only cited RW blogs and such as references; it had no ability to evaluate the credibility of the sources. Bing did reference legit articles, but they were about teachers getting into hot water after seizing smartphones from students. Since these sensationalistic stories typically have some (misleading) basis in fact, I got to wondering if one of the smartphones seized had a crucifix sticker on it.

Anyway, the generative AI Bing works very well if it's handed a straightforward question that's not too hard to track down: "Are IRS income-tax brackets adjusted for inflation?" The answer was YES, with the details explained. Try to ask Bing a nitpicky question that isn't easy to answer, it will discuss the general subject but ignore the specific question. There does seem to be potential there, but: "Needs work."

[FRI 16 JUN 23] CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (51)

* CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (51): Bill Clinton (born 1946), previously governor of Arkansas, became president in 1992. Having seen that Ronald Reagan's presidency meant America had shifted to the Right, Clinton similarly trimmed the Democratic Party to the Right.

A recession had killed George H.W. Bush's chances for re-election, one of Clinton's campaign slogans being: "It's The Economy, Stupid!" That recession was short-lived, with Clinton ending up the beneficiary of a sustained economic boom. Presidents have limited control over the direction of the US economy -- but since they are blamed when the economy goes south, it's only fair that they get credit when it does well.

Clinton trimmed his sails to the Right, cutting spending on social programs, cutting farm support, and deregulating the finance industry. He also energetically pushed through the NAFTA trade agreement, an effort he inherited from George H.W. Bush. Under Clinton, NAFTA became linked to environmental and labor concerns, though with weak enforcement. In addition, the Clinton Administration pushed forward on negotiations for the international "General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)", under discussion since 1986. GATT was approved in 1994, establishing a liberal trade order spanning the globe. It led to the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 -- which provided a structure for and enforcement of trade agreements.

Unlike Reagan, Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy early on and, in response to the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, cut defense spending. Although Congress, controlled by Republicans from 1994, was able to push through some tax cuts, the end result was still that the United States Federal budget was in surplus from fiscal years 1998 to 2001, the only surplus years since 1969.

Clinton's economic policies, of course, became known as "Clintonomics", owed much to Reaganomics, with an effort to leash in the Federal government and make it more efficient, grant more power to the states and localities, while encouraging enterprise and free trade -- with a particular emphasis on helping small businesses. Clinton was not, however, really like a Reagan Republican; he simply recognized that the opportunities for progressive policies were limited at the time.

Bill Clinton did make efforts to invest in "human capital" by promoting education and research, and made an earnest effort to push through a national health program -- under the direction of his wife, First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton (born 1947). The health plan foundered on Republican opposition, with Hillary Clinton becoming the target of widespread animosity. Bill Clinton also worked to hold the line on environmental regulation, but didn't expand its scope. Worries about a warming world due to carbon-dioxide emissions had grown during the 1980s, with the United Nations setting up the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)" in 1988 to assess research on climate change, and make recommendations to governments. Nonetheless, there was no deep support for taking serious action to address climate change.

Clinton expressed concerns over climate change, but did little to address it. As the issue became more prominent, conservatives became louder in denouncing climate science as a fraud. There was no political consensus for action.

The Clinton Administration worked with the government of Russian President Boris Yeltsin in hopes of encouraging a reformed and democratic Russia. Although the new Russian state had democratic forms, they didn't run deep. The most significant action of the Yeltsin government was a massive privatization of state assets, which was noted by corruption and led to the rise of a powerful oligarchy. For the time being, there was a sense of optimism that, over the longer run, Russia could become a functioning modern democracy.

China seemed less worrisome, that country going from strength to strength. China offered a low-cost labor force supporting foreign manufacturers, who pumped investment into China while Chinese exports and GDP surged. There was also a sense of optimism that China would become a modern democracy, with Clinton signing a landmark trade agreement with China in 2000, which led to China becoming a member of the WTO. [TO BE CONTINUED]

[THU 15 JUN 23] SPACE NEWS

* Space launches for May included:

[01 MAY 23] USA CC / FALCON HEAVY / VIASAT 3 AMERICAS & -- A Falcon Heavy booster was launched from Cape Canaveral at 0026 UTC (next day local time + 4) to put three payloads into orbit, including "ViaSat 3 Americas", "Arcturus", and "G-Space 1". This was the sixth flight of the Falcon Heavy.

The ViaSat 3 Americas geostationary comsat was the primary payload, with a launch mass of 6,000 kilograms (13,200 pounds) and a Ka-band payload. It could handle traffic of up to one terabit per second, much greater than that of earlier ViaSat satellites. It was based on the Boeing 702MP bus, had a design lifetime of 15 years, and was placed in the geostationary slot at 88.9 degrees West longitude.

The Arcturus satellite, with a mass of 400 kilograms (880 pounds), was built by Astranis to provide broadband services to the state of Alaska for Pacific Dataport. The spacecraft was placed in the geostationary slot at 163 degrees West longitude.

Arcturus AKA "Aurora 4A", was the first Astranis commercial satellite to be launched. The satellite had a design lifetime of 10 years, had electric propulsion, and carried a Ku-band payload a throughput on the order of 7.5 GBPS. The Arcturus satellite was one of Astranis' MicroGEO satellites, designed to provide dedicated service to one region. In this case, Arcturus served Alaska, whereas other MicroGEO satellites built by the company will serve Peru and air-sea mobile communications.

The G-Space 1 satellite was a 16-unit (16U) CubeSat built in Denmark for Gravity Space. The satellite was designed to support communication services for the Internet of Things, and also carried a number of other payloads. One payload was a "bring-into-use" placeholder for Indonesia's PT Pasifik Satelit Nusantara known as the "Nusantara H1A". -- to allow the operator to retain Ka- and Ku- band rights to a geostationary orbital slot reserved for a satellite that had been delayed. Other payloads on G-Space 1 included an "orbit guard" space situational awareness imaging system and an experimental rendezvous and docking payload.

[04 MAY 23] USA-C CC / FALCON 9 / STARLINK 5-6 -- A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was launched from Cape Canaveral at 0731 UTC (local time + 5) to put 56 SpaceX "Starlink v1.5" low-Earth-orbit broadband comsats into orbit. With this launch, SpaceX had more than 4,000 satellites in orbit, and had launched 4,340 total satellites. The Falcon 9 first stage landed on the SpaceX drone ship.

[08 MAY 23] NZ / ELECTRON / TROPICS x 2 -- A Rocket Labs Electron light booster was launched from New Zealand's Mahia Peninsula at 0100 UTC (local time - 13) to put two TROPICS 3-unit (3U) CubeSats into orbit for NASA. The "Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats" mission was a NASA constellation of six CubeSats to measure temperature and moisture profiles and precipitation in tropical systems with unprecedented temporal frequency.

TROPICS was originally envisioned to be a constellation of 12 CubeSats that would study the development of tropical cyclones, with a rapid revisit time to allow additional data gathering. However, the project ended up being reduced to seven CubeSats, with the first being a pathfinder spacecraft.

Each TROPICS CubeSat, built by Colorado-based Blue Canyon Technologies, carried with a 12-channel passive microwave spectrometer that can provide imagery near 90 and 206 GHz, temperature soundings near 118 GHz, and moisture soundings near 183 GHz. The measurements near 206 GHz were useful for the measurement of cloud ice, while the seven channels near the oxygen absorption line at 118.75 GHz and three channels near the water vapor absorption line at 183 GHz provided temperature profiles. The 90 GHz channel measured precipitation.

[10 MAY 23] CN WC / LONG MARCH 7 / TIANZHOU 6 -- A Long March 7 booster was launched from the Chinese Wenchang launch center on Hainan Island at 1325 UTC (local time - 8) to put the "Tianzhou 6" freighter capsule into orbit, on a supply mission to the Chinese Tiangong space station. It docked with the station 8 hours later, being welcomed by the Shenzhou 15 crew of Commander Fei Junlong, Operator Deng Qingming, and System Operator Zhang Lu.

[10 MAY 23] USA VB / FALCON 9 / STARLINK 2-9 -- A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was launched from Vandenberg SFB at 2009 UTC (local time + 1) to put 51 SpaceX "Starlink v1.5" low-Earth-orbit broadband comsats into orbit. The booster stage landed on the SpaceX drone ship.

[14 MAY 23] USA-C CC / FALCON 9 / STARLINK 5-9 -- A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was launched from Cape Canaveral at 0503 UTC (local time + 5) to put 56 SpaceX "Starlink v1.5" low-Earth-orbit broadband comsats into orbit. The Falcon 9 first stage landed on the SpaceX drone ship.

[17 MAY 23] CN XC / LONG MARCH 3B / BEIDOU 3 -- A Chinese Long March 3B booster was launched from Xichang at 0249 UTC (local time - 8) to put a "Beidou 3" navigation satellite into geostationary orbit. The satellite was built by the China Academy of Space Technology, part of China's government-owned aerospace industry, and was based on the DFH-3B satellite platform. The Beidou satellites also have a communications store-&-forward ability.

[19 MAY 23] USA-C CC / FALCON 9 / STARLINK 6-3 -- A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was launched from Cape Canaveral at 0619 UTC (local time + 5) to put 22 SpaceX "Starlink v2 Mini" low-Earth-orbit broadband comsats into orbit. The Falcon 9 first stage landed on the SpaceX drone ship.

[20 MAY 23] USA VB / FALCON 9 / IRIDIUM NEXT x 5, ONEWEB x 16 -- A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was launched from Vandenberg SFB at 0743 UTC (local time + 8) to put five "Iridium NEXT" and 16 "OneWeb" satellites into orbit. The five Iridium NEXT satellites were replacements for some of the satellites SpaceX launched for the company between 2017 and 2019. The constellation consists of 66 operational satellites, nine on-orbit spares, and six ground spares.

OneWeb's initial operational constellation of 618 satellites is now in orbit. 15 of the new satellites were on-orbit spares, while the 16th was a demonstrator for a second-generation OneWeb s system, the demonstrator being named "JoeySat."

[21 MAY 23] CN JQ / LONG MARCH 2C / MACAO SCIENCE x 2, LUJIO-2 01 -- A Long March 2C booster was launched from Jiuquan at 0800 UTC (local time - 8) to put the "Macao Science 1A,B" and "Luojia-2 01" satellites into orbit.

[21 MAY 23] USA-C CC / FALCON 9 / SPACEX CREW DRAGON AXIOM 2 -- A SpaceX Falcon booster was launched from Cape Canaveral at 2137 UTC (local time + 4), carrying a Crew Dragon space capsule on its second commercial crewed flight to the International Space Station. The mission, managed by Axiom Space, left the crew on the ISS for eight days.

The commander for this mission was Dr. Peggy Whitson, 63, a highly experienced shuttle astronaut, at the time the director of human spaceflight for Axiom. The pilot for this mission was John Shoffner, the only person to pay for a seat, The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia sponsored two crewmembers on Ax2. Mission Specialist Rayyanah Barnawi, 33, was the first Saudi female astronaut. The second mission specialist was Ali Alqarni, 31.

[24 MAY 23] RU BK / SOYUZ 2-1A / PROGRESS 84P (MS 23 / ISS) -- A Soyuz 2-1a booster was launched from Baikonur at 1256 UTC (local time - 6) to put a Progress tanker-freighter spacecraft into orbit on an International Space Station (ISS) supply mission. It docked with the station a few hours later. It was the 84th Progress mission to the ISS.

[25 MAY 23] SK NR / KSLV 2 / NEXTSAT 2 & -- A South Korean "Korean Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV) 2" AKA "Nuri" booster was launched from Naro Space Flight Center at 0924 UTC (local time - 9) to put NEXTSat 2 X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) demonstrator satellite, four SNIPE six-unit (6U) CubeSats, plus three other CubeSats into orbit. This was the first operational launch of the KSLV 2.

The NEXTSat 2 SAR satellite had a launch mass of 180 kilograms (400 pounds). It was developed by the Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology's Satellite Technology Research Center (KAIST SaTRec). NEXTSat-2 also observe radiation from cosmic rays. It had a design lifetime of two years.

The four SNIPE CubeSats, A through D, were designed to probe the space plasma environment. They carried Langmuir probes, fluxgate magnetometers, and high-energy particle detectors. In addition to their HF and S-band communications equipment, they had Iridium modules to communicate with the ground as a secondary data link. They were developed by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). The other three CubeSats included:

• JAC: A 3U CubeSat developed by Justek, being a testbed for an attitude control system.
  
  
• Lumir T1: A 6U CubeSat developed by Lumir, designed to measure cosmic radiation, as well as test error correction features in a digital subsystem.
  
  
• KSAT3U: A 3U CubeSat developed by Kairospace, designed to observing weather phenomena using a polarized camera, and demonstrate space debris removal.

[26 MAY 23] NZ / ELECTRON / TROPICS x 2 -- A Rocket Labs Electron light booster was launched from New Zealand's Mahia Peninsula at 0346 UTC (local time - 13) to put two TROPICS 3-unit (3U) CubeSats into orbit for NASA. The "Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats" mission was a NASA constellation of six CubeSats to measure temperature and moisture profiles and precipitation in tropical systems with unprecedented temporal frequency.

[26 MAY 23] RU VS / SOYUZ 2-1A / COSMOS 2568 (KONDOR FKA 1) -- A Soyuz 2-1a booster was launched from Vostochny at 2118 UTC (next day local time - 4) to put the first "Kondor FKA" civil Earth remote sensing SAR satellite into orbit. The satellite was designated "Cosmos 2569".

[27 MAY 23] USA CC / FALCON 9 / ARABSAT 7B -- A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was launched from Cape Canaveral at 0030 UTC (local time + 4) to put the "ArabSat 7B" AKA "Badr 8" geostationary comsat into orbit. It was based on Airbus Space Neostar-NEO satellite bus, using all-electric propulsion, and had a design lifetime of 15 years. It carried the new TELEO optical communications demonstration payload. ArabSat 7B was placed in the geostationary slot at 26 degrees East to provide TV and telecommunication services to Central Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. The Falcon 9 booster stage landed on the SpaceX recovery barge.

[29 MAY 23] IN SR / GSLV MK2 / NVS 01 -- An ISRO Launch Vehicle Mark 3 booster -- previously the Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) Mark 3 -- was launched from Sriharikota at 0512 UTC (local time - 5:30) to put the "NVS 01" navigation satellite into orbit.

It was the first second-generation Indian navsat to be launched. The "Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC)" system is a regional satellite navigation network developed by ISRO. Also known as the "Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS)", the system's first generation consisted of seven satellites in geosynchronous orbit -- although a total of nine spacecraft have been launched, including replacements.

IRNSS 1A, the first satellite in the series, was launched in July, with the constellation reaching its full complement following the launch of IRNSS 1G in 2016. After three years in orbit, the atomic clocks aboard IRNSS-1A began to develop faults, and IRNSS 1H was launched as a replacement in 2017. It did not reach orbit after the payload fairing failed to separate, so IRNSS 1I was deployed instead in 2018, becoming the first-generation IRNSS satellites.

The atomic clocks on the surviving satellites are slowly failing, so the second generation is being launched. These satellites feature Indian-developed atomic clocks, in place of the clocks manufactured by Swiss company SpectraTime, which were flown on the 1st-generation satellites.

NVS 01 had a launch mass of 2,232 kilograms (4,920 pounds); it was about 1,320 kilograms heavier than the first-generation satellites, meaning it had to be launched by the GSLV and not the lighter Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). It also incorporated improvements over the earlier satellites, including broadcast of a new L1 signal, in addition to the L5 and S-band signals broadcast by the existing satellites, to improve compatibility with other navsat systems, such as the US GPS network. NVS 01 was based on ISRO's I-2K satellite bus, instead of the I-1K platform used on the first-generation satellites. It had a design lifetime of 12 years.

[30 MAY 23] CN JQ / LONG MARCH 2F / SHENZHOU 16 -- A Long March 2F booster was launched from Jiuquan at 0131 GMT (local time - 8) to put the "Shenzhou 14" crewed space capsule into space on a Tiangong China Space Station support mission. The three taikonaut crew included commander Jing Haipeng, engineer Zhu Yangzhu serving as the mission's engineer, and payload specialist Gui Haichao.

Shenzhou-16 was the first flight of the 2nd-generation Shenzhou spacecraft, which carries a plethora of technical improvements over the first capsule. These improvements include fewer imported parts and more parts from Chinese manufacturers, and improved control mechanisms to make controlling the spacecraft easier for the crew.

[30 MAY 23] NK LC / CHOLLIMA 1 / MALLIGYONG 1 (FAILURE) -- A Chollima 1 booster was launched from North Korea's Shohae launch center to put the "Malligyong 1" spy satellite into space. The booster did not make orbit.

[31 MAY 23] USA VB / FALCON 9 / STARLINK 2-20 -- A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was launched from Vandenberg SFB at 0602 UTC (previous day local time + 8) to put 52 SpaceX "Starlink v1.5" low-Earth-orbit broadband comsats into orbit. The booster stage landed on the SpaceX drone ship.

[WED 14 JUN 23] THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (3)

* THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (3): I did get up early on 4 April, and took the hotel shuttle to Dulles to pick up Metrobus 5A to the National Mall. However, Metrobus 5A didn't show, so I asked around, and found out it had been discontinued. I was told to take the Metro rail instead. Later I realized that when I had been in DC in 2016 and took the Metrobus, the Metro line hadn't been extended to Dulles; it had been extended in the meantime, and the Metrobus became redundant. I was confused because I'd downloaded a PDF of the Metrobus 5A schedule, later realizing it probably was from an archival website, not the DC Metro website.

No problem, really. I made my way to the Metro station -- it was a fair walk, but with moving walkways that sped me along. I had to puzzle out how to use the ticket machines and figure out which line to take, the Silver Line as it turned out, but a day pass didn't cost any more than the bus would have.

I was planning to end the ride at L'Enfant Plaza, but the Silver line came to Smithsonian station, and that sounded like a very good place to get off. I was a little disoriented walking out of the station, but I quickly got my bearings and made my way towards the Smithsonian Castle. I already knew there was a bike station for Capitol Bikeshare nearby and rented a bike -- somewhat complicated by the fact that the buttons on the rental controls were worn into illegibility, but I managed to guess what they were and get the bike out of its lock stand. It was a heavy, sturdy bike with a three-speed twist shifter.

I hadn't ridden a bike in a long time, but it wasn't too much trouble. One problem was that, when I ran across a pedestrian crowd I'd slow down, and the bike would of course become unstable and difficult to manage. I should have just got off and walked the bike. I rode west from the area of the Washington Monument to the Lincoln Monument, taking shots -- and noticing near the Lincoln Monument that the lawn was mixed clover and grass, which I've been trying to establish on my own yard. From there, I rode across the Potomac to Arlington Memorial Cemetery, though I didn't go past the gate -- and then looped back east to the Tidal Pool and the Jefferson Monument.

That done, I did a loopback circuit of the National Mall to the Capitol Building, stopping at the Grant equestrian statue in front of it, and went back to the museums, just as they were opening. I put the bike back into a stall, but it didn't seem to lock in right, making me wonder if I'd have some trouble later. Nothing I could do but go on about my business. I did have trouble later, incidentally, but nothing that couldn't be straightened out talking with the support people.

Anyway, I got to the American Indian History Museum (AIHM) at 1000 AM, when it opened. It was a very nice and attractive facility, but I had little interest in it. Next stop was the Afro-American History Museum (AAHM), having a ticket for 1030 AM. When I got over there, I found a crowd -- but as it turned out, I had no problems getting in, the crowds were tour groups.

As with the AIHM, I didn't find the exhibits all that interesting, except for one on "Afro-Futurism", or the black experience in sci-fi. There was a nod to Sun Ra -- a big-band leader with amusing cosmic pretensions -- plus tributes to black sci-fi writers like Chip Delaney, Gardner Dozois, and Octavia Butler. The music of Jimi Hendrix was coming through the sound system, coupled to videos; I was disappointed that they didn't play up Hendrix's sci-fi tune THIRD STONE FROM THE SUN. On leaving the exhibit, there was a manikin of the Marvel Black Panther, with a black dad and his two kids posing in front of it for the wife's camera. I thought that was a nice touch.

I had been worried about staying fed for the day, fearing that I wouldn't find much of a place to eat, but there was a restaurant in the lower level of the AAHM that offered a fried chicken dinner. I killed a little time until it opened, then got my supper: two fried chicken fillets with coleslaw and mac-&-cheese. It was about $20 USD with a cola -- refills included -- which was maybe slightly spendy, but not bad. The mac-&-cheese looked nice and cheesy, but it was funny, with a bland, almost sweet cheese; it wasn't bad, but not to my taste. The coleslaw was good, and the fried chicken succulent.

That done, my next target was the Smithsonian NASM on the mall. I had a ticket for 1230 PM, giving me some time to kill, so I looped through the very pretty gardens around the Smithsonian Castle, taking shots -- including of a mockingbird, keeping an eye on me. It was good to see a mockingbird, they don't live in Colorado. I got to NASM at the appointed time; I had noticed while going to the AAHM that it was under repair, but I was hoping that most of the exhibits were still open. No such luck, it was mostly shut off from tourist access, and I only got a few shots.

That left me with nothing much else on my list, and was getting tired. I thought of going back then, but decided to check out the Smithsonian Natural History Museum. That was a fun visit, dinosaur skeletons and the like, but it was getting crowded, and I was getting more tired. I left the mall and went to the Smithsonian station to pick up the Metro back to Dulles. It made so many stops I wondered if I had got the wrong line, but then I relaxed: it was the only Metro line in that direction and I couldn't get the wrong line. I made it back to the hotel, killed some time, then crashed out. [TO BE CONTINUED]

[TUE 13 JUN 23] UPF TROUBLE?

* UPF TROUBLE? As discussed in an article from BBC.com ("Could Ultra-Processed Foods Be Harmful For Us?" by Esme Stallard, 5 June 2023), only a few decades ago nobody knew the term "ultra-processed foods (UPF)" -- but even then, they were commonplace. These are the foods that are fun to eat but not necessarily the healthiest available, including:

• Store bread and sugary breakfast cereals.
  
  
• Instant soups, pre-packaged, and microwave meals.
  
  
• Fruit-flavored yogurts.
  
  
• Reconstituted meat, such as ham and sausages.
  
  
• Ice cream, chips, and cookies.
  
  
• Soft drinks and some alcoholic drinks, such as whiskey, gin, and rum.

They are made with some level of industrial processing, with ingredients such as preservatives, artificial sweeteners and emulsifiers, that are not usually found in home cooking.

They make money for their producers. Professor Marion Nestle -- a food politics expert and professor of nutrition at New York University -- says: "Ultra-processed foods are among the most profitable foods companies can make." Some academics are suspicious of UPFs, with Tim Spector -- a professor of epidemiology at King's College London -- commenting:

BEGIN_QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

UPFs contain chemicals that UK regulators say are safe, but there is emerging scientific evidence suggestive of a link between some of these chemicals and cancer, diabetes and strokes. Dozens of studies have linked growing consumption of UPF to increased risk of developing serious illnesses. However, those trendlines are very hard to sort out from other factors, such as smoking, lack of exercise, and obesity. Obesity is a particular problem, with skeptics suggesting that dietary hazard is less an issue of eating the wrong things, but of eating too much of everything.

The first investigations into mortality and consumption of ultra-processed food started in France at the University Sorbonne Paris Nord, as part of the ongoing study into the eating habits of 174,000 people. The study, which is ongoing, suggests UPFs are linked to higher incidence of cancer.

More recently, the researchers have become particularly suspicious of one specific ingredient: emulsifiers, which act as a glue in UPFs to hold everything together. Emulsifiers improve the appearance and texture of food, and help to extend the shelf life far beyond that of less-processed food. Emulsifiers are found in mayonnaise, chocolate, peanut butter, meat products. Everyone eats them.

The UK's Food Standards Agency (FSA) -- which regulates the food industry in England, Wales and Northern Ireland -- does not see any cause for alarm, an FSA official saying: "We have not been presented with any evidence ... of any specific emulsifiers which are believed to pose a risk to health." Nonetheless, the FSA plans to address the issue.

One of the most controversial additives in UPF is the sweetener aspartame. 200 times sweeter than sugar, it has become a significant component in low-calorie sugary drinks, ice cream, and such. In 2013, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) decided, after looking at all the available evidence, that aspartame was safe. The UK's Food Standards Agency accepted this position.

However, critics say the studies that showed no harm were generally funded by corporations that produce aspartame, while those that did were independently funded. That criticism, however, is weakened by the fact that the companies who make aspartame have an incentive to make sure it's really safe. To be sure, companies have been known to finance bogus research -- for example, to show that smoking is safe -- but those studies were never taken seriously by the regulatory authorities. The authorities do not, as a rule, accept a study without checking on its methodology.

Are UPFs really unsafe? In dietary matters, risk can be assessed in levels, for example:

• Level 4: Known to be toxic and dangerous.
  
  
• Level 3: Known to be unhealthy, for example smoking.
  
  
• Level 2: Possibly unhealthy, possibly not.
  
  
• Level 1: No persuasive proof of being unhealthy.

UPFs are clearly at level 2 at most. All that can be said for now is that, if there really is a problem with UPFs, it's not too far above the noise level.

[MON 12 JUN 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 23

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: The big news this last month was that ex-president Donald Trump was finally slapped with a Federal indictment, over his mishandling of secret government documents. After he left the White House, he had boxes of secret government documents stashed at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Photos show crates of the documents around a toilet in a bathroom.

If it had been a case of simple sloppiness, Trump would have returned the documents and not much more would have happened. However, he pushed back all the way, giving back nothing until the Feds raided Mar-a-Lago and snatched the documents up. What else could have been expected of Trump? Worse for Trump, there's plenty of evidence that he knew he was breaking the law, and had even shown secret documents to journalists who didn't have security clearances. The indictment not only listed mishandling government documents, but also obstruction of justice and violation of the Espionage Act.

There are concerns that he passed on secrets to foreign governments, which would mean much bigger trouble for Trump. No evidence is available to the public that he did -- but this is Trump, he's capable of anything. Given that he's clearly been under surveillance 24:7 since 1 January 2021, it's not like he could get away with it undetected.

In any case, when I saw the news it knocked me back a bit. I knew Trump would be indicted by the Feds eventually, and that the classified-documents case would come before the much more complicated conspiracy to steal the 2020 election. However, I'd got so used to biding my time that I was surprised when it did happen. Next morning, I put up the US flag in front of my house, as I had planned from some time ago. Trump reports to the Feds for processing on Tuesday, so I'll take it down on Wednesday.

No trial date has been set yet. The next indictments are likely to be relative to the conspiracy to steal the election. Trump is clearly not going to be indicted for that just yet, since the Feds have to indict his senior stooges first -- either to get them to rat on Trump, or to neutralize them as defense witnesses. It's fun to think of who's on the list: Bannon, Giuliani, Miller, Powell, Eastman, Clarke, and so on. They just subpoenaed Bannon for questioning by a grand jury, which hints that indictments are not that far away; it appears that witnesses who are unlikely to be cooperative are subpoenaed last in an investigation. Might they also indict Mike Lindell and some Members of Congress? Hard to say, but it's clear that once they indict Don Junior, the next step will be Don Senior. Stay tuned.

* Early this month, my website was penetrated by a bot that caused me anxieties. I decided immediately that I had to secure my website, getting rid of the direct "mailto:" that I'd been using for years, and replacing it with an indirect email form, with a "captcha" to block bots.

I got to thinking I could find some free app to do the job, and ended up with a service named "emailJS" -- short for "Javascript email". It looked like it could do the job; I'd just define the form, and it would generate HTML code that I would upload to my website account at Fatcow. Alas, it took me the better part of a week of tinkering off and on to find it was just one obstacle after another; I'd overcome one, to be confronted by another. For example, I could get a free "captcha" from Google, but the instructions on how to hook it up to the form code were unclear, and I hadn't been able to dope out the form code yet, either.

I finally realized that emailJS was a tool for experienced Javascript programmers, who didn't need to have everything laboriously spelled out for them. I went back to square one, trying to find a turnkey app to do the job. I'd got off on the wrong track because I didn't know the right search terms. This time around, I did some experimenting with queries, to finally converge on a solution -- finding a set of firms set up to provide forms for online services, including AidaForm, MailJet, Cognito, and Jotform.

They all offered free service for small-time users, typically limited to 100 form submissions a month. Since I typically get less than a query a week, certainly never even once a day, I'd never get close to that limit. I set up an account on all four services, but couldn't find one that just gave me the simple email form I needed -- until I got to Jotform, which had almost exactly the form template I wanted. The only thing missing was a "captcha", which was easily added. The form was easily modified, but I'll tweak it some other time.

It turned out I didn't need an app as such; all I had to do was link from my websites to my Jotform account. It only took me a few minutes of tinkering and I was flying, sending myself emails securely from the form on my websites. After struggling with emailJS for days I was relieved that, once I got on the right track, it took less than two hours of effort to get the solution I wanted all along. It was fun, too.

I did other related tweaks after that, for example turning off the autoanswer reply Jotform sends out to queries: nobody gets an answer unless I send it myself, otherwise the query just disappears. I don't know if I've defeated the bot yet. It may be a long-term effort. It's never wise to meet such trouble head-on; it's better to just raise obstacle after obstacle to complicate life for the bot, until it gives up.

[FRI 09 JUN 23] CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (50)

* CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (50): Amartya Sen's analysis of the origins of famines attempted to show both how they happened, and how they could be averted. In 1974, food production in the county of Bangladesh was adequate to keep everyone fed, but then a flood disrupted the agriculture industry. Many farm laborers were laid off, while there was panic buying of food that drove up prices. The unemployed laborers couldn't buy food, and many of them starved. Bangladesh was a new country, having been established after the 1971 Indo-Pakistan War, and the government was inexperienced, corrupt, and ineffective. External food aid was too slow to arrive.

From 1970 to 1973, the Indian state of Maharashta experienced a prolonged drought, with farm laborers similarly laid off. The government was more attentive, and hired the laborers to build roads and dig wells; there was hardship, but mass famine was averted. Giving the poor jobs when no other employment was available was not mere charity, it was responsible governance.

Sen believed that democracy and a free press were vital in preventing famines. Authoritarian governments, like Stalin's in the 1930s and Mao's in the 1950s, never saw famines as a serious crisis to their rule. A tame press, set up to disseminate government propaganda, said little about hunger, and the people couldn't vote their corrupt leaders out. In both cases, millions died. Although India was a democracy seen through a glass darkly, it was still a democracy, and Sen believed that was why India hadn't suffered through major famines from the time of its independence.

Sen's major contribution to economics was to expand its vision from the issues of industry, business, and transactions to point out that "material resources" of a society also included public health, literacy, and government of and for the people. Along the way, he had many insights -- one particularly entertaining one being from his 1977 essay "Rational Fools", in which he lampooned the belief of the libertarian fringe of the primacy of self-interest:

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In reality, societies can only function on the basis of trust; the less trust there is in a society, the more poorly it functions. Societies where bribery is the norm tend to be poor and socio-economically backwards. In societies where the trust level is high, flim-flam men exploit trust to fleece their victims -- corrosively often appealing to the dishonesty of their victims to carry out their frauds. Sen believed that altruism is as normal to humans as other traits, saying that it is myopic to think otherwise:

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He summed up this argument neatly: "Universal selfishness as [the reality] may well be false, but universal selfishness as a requirement of rationality is patently absurd." Nonetheless, Sen thought highly of Friedrich Hayek, though with reservations:

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To no surprise, Sen was an admirer of John Kenneth Galbraith, in particular praising THE AFFLUENT SOCIETY, pointing out how influential it was: "It's like reading HAMLET and deciding it's full of quotations." It was all the less surprising because Sen was at least as witty as Galbraith was. [TO BE CONTINUED]

[THU 08 JUN 23] GIMMICKS & GADGETS

* GIMMICKS & GADGETS: The German company Festo AG -- mentioned here -- likes to make, among other things, animal-inspired robots. In a recent endeavor, the company has worked with bionics company Evologics GMBH of Berlin to develop an "Air Ray" robot, a helium-filled drone airship in the general form of a manta ray that gets around by flapping its wings, driven by a servo-motor system. In addition, Festo has developed a submarine "Aqua Ray", which gets around under the water in much the same way, using a hydraulic actuation system to flap its "sea wings".

Possibly leveraging off the same technology as Air Ray, Montreal-based Moment Factory -- maker of visual productions for public entertainments -- has introduced a set of whale / dolphin robot drones, which made a big splash at concerts of the US rock band Phish. Not a lot of details of the helium-filled drones are known, but clearly they were designed to be cost-effective, being for show and not for doing any particular job.

* As discussed in an article from NEWATLAS.com ("Airwheel Ride-On Suitcase Lets Your Luggage Lug You Around" by Michael Irving, 9 November 2022), rolling luggage is a common site at airports. What's not so common is luggage that people can ride around -- for example the AirWheel, a new Kickstarter project.

It's not a completely new idea. Some companies like Trunki have been making ride-on suitcases for kids for years, and have tinkered with offering them for adults. It's also not all that complicated, the Airwheel featuring an electric drive powered by a lithium battery, plus pull-out handlebars. It weighs 7.5 kilograms (16.5 pounds); its frame is made of aluminum and can handle 130 kilograms (285 pounds). It features a combination lock.

Apparently the 10-centimeter (4-inch) wheels are shock-absorbed. It can cruise at up to 10 KPH (6 MPH) for an hour; the battery can be easily swapped out. It features a programmable lighting system and a search mode. It can also charge other devices through two USB ports. It is sized as overhead carry-on luggage -- since it has a lithium battery, it can't be baggage-checked, unless the battery is removed.

* As discussed in an article from NEWATLAS.com ("Stacked Glass Cubes Form Eye-Catching Vancouver Skyscraper" by Adam Williams, 31 October 2022), the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, has a striking new addition to its skyline: the 90-meter (295-foot) tall Deloitte Summit building, which looks like a stack of cubes placed haphazardly on each other. It has a floor area of 34,850 sq_meters (375,000 sq_feet), mostly for office space.

The Deloitte Summit was designed by the OSO architectural firm of Tokyo, in collaboration with Merrick Architecture and landscaping by HAPA Collective. The 24-storey building is less haphazard than it looks, with its unorthodox configuration setting up flexible office spaces and multiple outdoor terrace areas. The glass cubes are supported by a steel frame, clustered around a concrete core hosting the elevator and staircases. An OSO release commented:

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At opening, the Deloitte Summit was largely bare of greenery, but plantings will eventually be a significant component of its appearance.

[WED 07 JUN 23] THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (2)

* THE LAST TOURIST TRIP (2): I went to bed on 3 April and got up in the dark hours of the morning on the 4th, to drive to Denver International Airport (DIA) to pick up my flight. Weather forecasts said there would be some snow, which was worrisome: we can get snap blizzards in the early spring in Colorado, which would make driving dangerous and also might lead to canceled flights. I considered going down in the evening and spending the night at the airport to dodge the snow, but weather reports told me I would be ahead of the snow. Not quite; fortunately, it wasn't much more than a bit of light sleet, and in fact it was dry when I got to DIA.

I left my car in long-term parking, took the shuttle bus to the terminal, got a boarding pass at a kiosk in the United service area, then went through security. That left me with some time to kill, so I toured the airport to get pictures with my S21 Ultra. DIA is huge, with a main terminal and three concourses, connected by a shuttle subway, and there are some artworks and such in hub areas. I took the subway to the most distant "C" concourse, back to the "A" concourse, and then to the "B" concourse in the middle, to pick up my flight. Although there were some sights to take pictures of, particularly a Learjet 31 on display, that tour ended up being nothing much.

I departed somewhat after 0600 AM, the flight being delayed a bit. The flight was uneventful; fortunately, we had a tailwind, so we got into Dulles a bit ahead of schedule. I had to phone to get a shuttle van to the Hampton Inn, but it was no real trouble. Incidentally, since I never call on my phone when I'm in Loveland, I have a very cheap phone contract, with 100 minutes of voice, a gigabyte of data, and unlimited texts -- leaving me with some worries about running out.

Since I got to the Hampton Inn before check-in time, I asked if I could check my bags at the desk -- but they told me my room was ready, so I just threw my bags on a bed in the room, then went down to the lobby and called for a ride to the NASM annex on Lyft. It worked like a charm, I got a quick pickup and a quick ride to the museum for cheap, even with a $5 tip.

I was making better time than I expected, and I had plenty of time to cover the museum, taking shots with my S21 Ultra. I learned more about how to use the gadget. First time I did it at the USAF Museum in October, I had a bluetooth shutter to take the shots, which proved clumsy. Now I just told the S21 Ultra to "shoot", and it took a shot -- or at least it did sometimes. To get a good low-light shot, I had to stand as motionless as possible, since the image stabilization can only handle slight movements. When I used voice control, the S21 Ultra would not take a shot if I wasn't standing still enough, so I typically had to tell it to shoot multiple times. Using the bluetooth shutter had been a mistake, since it made the S21 Ultra take a shot whether it was ready or not.

I hadn't eaten much since leaving Loveland, subsisting on a bag of little Payday caramel-peanut bars I stuffed in my travel pack. There was a Shake Shack fast-food joint in the annex, so I decided to get a meal. Turned out to be a bad idea; the Shake Shack wasn't set up for handling large crowds, and it took much too long to get served, with a fair amount of aggravation in the meantime. I got a hot dog, fries, and a shake; they were overpriced, which is what I expected from a museum concession, but aside from the shake, they wouldn't have been a good value for a more reasonable price.

I did another circuit of the annex, and then got a Lyft ride back to the hotel. I went out to see if I could find a place to get some cherry pepsis -- and found a 7-11 convenience store right around the corner from the hotel. I didn't notice it when I was scouting out the locale on Google Maps, missed a trick. Anyway, they had cherry cokes but no cherry pepsi, so I bought two cokes. On the way back, I saw jetliners flying overhead, coming out the Dulles runway, and stopped to take pictures of them. I got bored quickly; planespotting is no longer of much interest to me.

I checked the data usage on my phone in my hotel room. I was worried that the gigabyte of data I got on my cheap Tello contract would be exhausted swiftly, but it turned out the two Lyft rides only took about 50 megabytes of that. As long as I only used the phone for roaming communications when I had to, a gigabyte was plenty for a short trip. I also drank a coke; I much prefer the sweeter pepsi, but found if I got a sugar packet from the hotel coffee bar and added just a pinch of sugar to the coke, it worked just fine. I went to bed after settling in, since I was going to have to get up early to go into DC. [TO BE CONTINUED]

[TUE 06 JUN 23] OPAQUE NSA

* OPAQUE NSA: As discussed in an article from ARSTECHNICA.com ("NSA's State Secrets Defense Kills Lawsuit Challenging Internet Surveillance" by Jon Brodkin, 22 February 2023), on 21 February 2023, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) declined a petition to review a case involving the US National Security Agency's (NSA) surveillance of internet traffic, leaving in place a lower-court ruling that dismissed the lawsuit.

The NSA surveillance was challenged by the Wikimedia Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), and the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University. Wikimedia was the lead in the lawsuit; Wikimedia Foundation Legal Director James Buatti expressing disappointment at the rejection of the petition:

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The lawsuit challenged the NSA's "Upstream" surveillance program in which, according to Buatti:

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The lawsuit arose from the 2013 revelations of Edward Snowden, an NSA contractor who leaked extensive details about NSA surveillance. The lawsuit was first thrown out in 2015 over the issue of whether plaintiffs had standing to sue. However, the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals revived the case and sent it back to the lower court -- which dismissed it again in 2019, once more citing lack of standing and saying that further litigation would pose a threat to US national security. The decision was appealed a second time, with the 4th Circuit Court then refusing in 2021 to revive the lawsuit. With the failure of the petition to SCOTUS, there's nothing more legally to be said.

While the NSA freely admits it conducts extensive internet surveillance, the agency denies that it violates the rights of Americans in doing so. The Department of Justice (DOJ), arguing to SCOTUS on behalf of the NSA, said that the evidence doesn't support the Wikimedia Foundation's claims:

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Wikimedia's argument was legally vague, resting on a strong interpretation of general comments about the Upstream program. The lawsuit was in the difficult position of claiming the NSA Upstream program violated the rights of Americans -- when exactly what Upstream was doing was not known. There was no basis for the suit. DOJ commented:

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The NSA says that all the agency's internet surveillance is in accordance with guidelines established in the Obama Administration, and Wikimedia had no evidence to show the NSA is violating the guidelines. The battle has now gone upstream, Buatti saying:

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Given the reality that the Wikimedia's case is no stronger now than it ever was, it is unlikely that anything more than cosmetic tweaks to regulations will come of the foundation's lobbying efforts. The foundation may have to accept such crumbs as the best that can be obtained.

[MON 05 JUN 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 22

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: For the past few months, there was a lot of noise from the crazy-Right Freedom Caucus (HFC) of the US House of Representatives about refusing to raise the debt ceiling and bring the US government to a screeching halt. Anyone with sense could see that the majority of House Republicans weren't going to go along with it, and that it was a hollow bluff. Nonetheless, the Biden Administration negotiated in good faith with Congressional Republicans, and came up with a compromise solution. It was handily voted through this last week. A surprising number of House Democrats voted against the compromise, though it appears only casing NO votes after it was obvious the measure would pass.

The bill will rescind about $28 billion USD in unspent COVID relief funds. It will cut $1.4 billion USD in IRS funding, and shift about $20 billion USD of the $80 billion provided to the agency through the Inflation Reduction Act to non-defense funds. It will restart federal student loan payments, after a long pause begun during the pandemic. In addition, it will place work requirements for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families benefits on people up to 55 years old -- the current threshold is 50 -- with carve-outs for veterans and homeless people. Finally, the bill will update the National Environmental Policy Act to streamline permitting for projects.

The White House, in turn, has been playing up the reality that the spending cuts are modest, in particular making no changes to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. The bill will also preserve the climate and clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, and leave Biden's executive action on student debt forgiveness untouched. The IRS cuts are troublesome, but they mostly hit long-term funding and don't hurt current efforts. Most importantly, the debt ceiling won't be reviewed again until after the end of Biden's first term.

It was pointed out Joe Biden had, in pushing through the bill, had made good his election promise to pursue "bipartisanship". It was also apparent that the HFC was not happy with the bill, in particular because their bluff about shutting down the government unless there were massive spending cuts had been called. The HFC can bark loud, but it has little bite. How this plays out remains to be seen, but promises to be interesting.

* Another interesting item that's come up was a survey of 1,500 Americans from early April 2023, conducted by YouGov -- the well-known British internet-based analytics firm -- on the level of trust Americans have in the media.

When broken down by party alignment, at first sight the results seem predictable, with Democrats saying they had higher trust than Republicans in many mainstream centrist or center-left media outlets, such as the Associated Press and CBS. The surprising part was that more Democrats than Republicans said they bought off on many conservative media outlets, including THE DAILY CALLER, THE NEW YORK POST, and THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER. Only, say, a fifth of Democrats trusted them, but only a few percent of Republicans did.

In fact, only a media outlets are more trusted by Republicans than Democrats, including Fox News, Newsmax, Breitbart News and One America News -- with Fox News being the only one that a majority of Republicans trust. It's hard to sort out exactly why this is so, but it may well be that the fact that Right-wing outlets even report negative news about Donald Trump that's causing the distrust. In any case, we now have a faction of American society that doesn't really believe any media any more. Does this pose any threat? It's hard to say it does, since such people have always been around, and their further descent into solipsism is not likely to do them any good.

* As discussed in an article from REUTERS.com ("Securonomics Is Fuzzy New Lodestar For Investors" by Felix Martin, 2 June 2023) Rachel Reeves -- the UK Labour Party's "shadow" Chancellor of the Exchequer, previously an economist at the Bank of England -- recently made a dramatic statement: "Globalization, as we once knew it, is dead." She went on to say what had replaced it: "securonomics". The era of free-wheeling global trade is over, with politicians willing to say: "Not so fast."

The principles of securonomics were laid out by the Biden Administration in late April 2023. Significantly, the roadmap was not laid out by the US Treasury Secretary or the US Trade Representative -- but by Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden's National Security Advisor. Sullivan made it clear that the era of unqualified support for free markets is over.

Domestically, industrial policy is back. According to Sullivan, the government will subsidize "specific sectors that are foundational to economic growth (or) strategic from a national security perspective." As important examples, consider the Biden Administration's two main pieces of economic legislation of the past twelve months, the CHIPS & Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which aim to build up the USA's semiconductor and green energy industries, respectively.

Internationally, securing supply chains will take priority over minimizing costs, and bilateral or regional trade agreements will be designed to support foreign and environmental policy. "Friendshoring", meaning the push to source parts and manufactured goods from friendly countries, will replace offshoring. Sullivan said almost nothing about the World Trade Organization.

Securonomics does not mean economic isolationism, instead seeing the world as divided into trade blocs that share common general principles. Countries that have economically powerful friends are going to benefit, though they will be required to abide by environmental rules and the like.

Some economists don't see a problem. Jacob Soll -- of the University of Southern California -- argued in his 2022 book FREE MARKET: THE HISTORY OF AN IDEA that the era of economic globalization was an anomaly, that securonomics was once much more the norm. Back in the 17th and 18th centuries, economic policymakers such as the French statesman Jean-Baptiste Colbert and Alexander Hamilton, the first US Treasury Secretary, believed that free markets had to co-exist with government support for industries essential to national security.

The real question remains of just how bureaucratic and heavy-handed the push towards securonomics will be. Can it be made to work, and work well? Those who defend securonomics point to the Ukraine War as demonstrating its necessity. Vladimir Putin attempted to use Russian energy supplies as an economic weapon in his invasion of Ukraine -- but realization became widespread that becoming economically dependent on authoritarian societies was a bad idea, and his ploy backfired badly. It also did a lot to promote the shift to a low-carbon economy, meaning Putin lost business he can't get back.

* As discussed in an article from ENGADGET.com ("Company Responsible For 7.5 Billion Robocalls Sued By Nearly Every Attorney General" by Peter Cao, 26 May 2023), a bipartisan group of Attorneys General from 48 states, plus the District of Columbia, have filed a lawsuit against Arizona-based Avid Telecom, its owner Michael D. Lansky and vice president Stacey S. Reeves.

The suit claims that the company illegally made over 7.5 billion calls to people on the National Do Not Call Registry. The suit ads that Avid Telecom spoofed phone numbers, including 8.4 million that appeared to be coming from the government or law enforcement, and others disguised as originating from Amazon, DirecTV, and others. Avid is accused of violating the Telephone & Consumer Act, the Telemarketing Sales Rule, and a number of other telemarketing and consumer laws.

The AGs are asking the court to enjoin Avid Telecom from making illegal robocalls, and to pay damages and restitution to the people it called illegally. They're also pursuing several statutory avenues to make Avid pay on a per-violation basis -- which, given the number of calls, could pile up to a lot.

For a comparison, in 2017 Dish reached a settlement that cost them $210 million USD. The company allegedly made millions of calls to sell and promote its satellite TV service. In the end, Dish had to pay a $126 million USD civil fine to the US government, and $84 million USD to residents in California, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio. Avid is likely to get hit worse.

[FRI 02 JUN 23] CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (49)

* CAPITALISM & SOCIALISM (49): While Joseph Schumpeter was the prophet of Silicon Valley, the Indian economist Amartya Sen (born 1933) probed the economics of the poverty-stricken regions of the Earth. Sen was raised as a Hindu; when he was 11, he came to the aid of a Muslim worker named Kader Mia who had been stabbed by a Hindu gang during a riot. Mia told Sen that he knew going into a Hindu neighborhood was dangerous, but his family was hungry and had to earn money. Mia died not long after.

For Sen, the experience was definitional. The death of Mia got Sen thinking about poverty. He realized that escape from poverty, echoing Franklin Roosevelt, meant not just "freedom from want", but also "freedom from fear". Defining poverty as only a lack of money to buy food and other necessities of life was too restrictive. Sen defined poverty as a lack of "capabilities" needed to prosper in life: capabilities for staying fed, staying healthy, interaction with a community, remaining safe, and so on.

In this view, while there is an absolute poverty -- people who are starving in the midst of plenty are obviously impoverished -- poverty is, in the broader view, relative. In a generally poor society like India, getting along in the world can be much less expensive than it is in a developed country like the USA. A poor Indian could get along without shoes; it would be almost impossible for a New Yorker. A poor American could well have, these days, a cheap smartphone or even a cheap computer.

Sen described the development of society as growth of capabilities. Society advances as the people of the collective lead better lives: possessing the necessities of life and some luxuries too, being safe, being healthy. Education is a particularly significant capability, opening doors to a greater world: information is power. Democracy, according to Sen, is also significant, giving people the opportunity to influence events instead of simply react to them. Although GDP is far from irrelevant -- a society must have material resources to establish capabilities -- simply measuring GDP and doesn't really capture the human factor of development.

In the 1990s, Sen put his ideas into practice by helping the United Nations establish a "Human Development Index (HDI)" as an expanded view of GDP, factoring in literacy, life expectancy, and other human elements along with income. In this synthesis, Sri Lanka was rated higher than Saudi Arabia even though Saudi Arabia was much richer, because Saudi Arabia lacked civil rights, democratic participation, had restrictive views of education, and in particular denied rights to women.

Of course, not all factors have equal weight, with food -- again -- having a particularly great significance: people who can't get food die. Sen was personally familiar with famine, having handed out rice during the Great Bengal Famine of 1943. That famine was caused by the dislocations of war, the Japanese conquest of Burma having painfully restricted rice supplies to India -- while the efforts of the British to confront the Japanese in Eastern India led to social and economic dislocations. The results were disastrous, with several million Indians dying of hunger.

Sen got to thinking about famines later, reflecting on the ghastly famines that afflicted Africa and Asia in the 1970s and 1980s. The traditional, simplistic view of famines was that they were due to food shortages. Sen knew that wasn't always the case, that famines could take place even when there was no food shortage. Sen saw the issue as a lack of "entitlement". Today, the term "entitlement" implies government assistance programs, but Sen had a more general concept of its meaning. Sen was asking a question along the lines of: Given the resources available to people, then how much food are they entitled to? How much food can they buy? [TO BE CONTINUED]

[THU 01 JUN 23] SCIENCE NOTES

* SCIENCE NOTES: As discussed in an article from REUTERS.com ("UK Accelerates London Flood Defence Plan", 17 May 2023), Britain is accelerating plans to protect London from flooding caused by a climate change and rising sea levels, with the schedule for work to protect the city moved up by 15 years.

London sits on a tidal stretch of the River Thames around 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the sea. It is currently protected from storm surges by a 520-meter wide movable flood barrier east of the city, which is raised a few times each year. The government announced it was speeding up an existing climate adaptation program, bringing forward a target to raise defenses in the city to 2050, instead of 2065, as originally specified in a 2012 document. Julie Foley -- an official at the Environment Agency, which developed the plans -- says: "Sea levels are rising at an accelerated rate across the Thames Estuary, and it is therefore essential that we act now to respond to the changing climate."

The 2012 plan had said defenses in the section of the river running past London landmarks such as the Houses of Parliament and the Tower of London would need to eventually be raised by up to a meter. In April 2023, the World Meteorological Organization said global sea levels were rising at more than twice the rate they did in the first decade of measurements in 1993:2002, and hit a new record high last year. The revised plan sets how authorities will to protect 1.4 million people and 321 billion GBP ($405 billion USD) of property from existing tidal risks, and new ones driven by climate change.

* Tree ring data has long been used to help trace past events that have affected the Earth. As mentioned here in 2014, tree ring data has revealed the Earth was bathed in a burst of intense radiation in the year 774 CE. It was not the only such event, tree rings showing six major radiation spikes, known as "Miyake events", over the past 10,000 years.

Researchers at the University of Queensland decided to perform a "deep dive" into Miyake events, examining the historical record to find out how strong they were and when they occurred in relation to the regular cycles of the Sun. They accordingly developed a software system a system to all existing data on tree rings they could find from around the world, and model the global carbon cycle over the last 10,000 years. They were particularly interested in finding carbon-14 -- a radioactive isotope of carbon that is produced by cosmic radiation strikes the Earth's atmosphere. The C14 is taken up by trees as they grow, preserving the record within their rings. Abrupt spikes of carbon-14 can indicate large radiation storms from space.

The investigation revealed something puzzling. Miyake events are generally thought to be large solar flares, so they expected to find them clustered around the solar maximum, the most active phase in the Sun's 11-year cycle. That was not so, and sometimes the effects seemed to last longer than would be expected from solar flares. An event in 663 BCE, for example, appeared to last three years, while one in 5480 BCE persisted over a decade. Research lead Zhang Qingyuan said:

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However, nobody has spotted the celestial remnants of the Miyake events, so their cause remains unknown. That leaves the concern that the next such event might cause significant damage to the Earth. Research continues.

* As discussed in an article from SCIENCEMAG.org ("Odd Cave Bacterium Forms A Multicellular Body' by Elizabeth Pennisi, 18 October 2022), for much of the history of life on Earth, all the organisms consisted of single cells. They did have a tendency from early on to form colonies; in time, they obtained collectives of cells with specialized functions to become true multicellular organisms.

The exact evolutionary process by which this happened is not well understood. Now Japanese researchers working on biodegradable plastics have found an unusual bacterium that works up from a single cell to an organized body of hundreds of cells. After maturing, the body shoots out hundreds of single cells to spawn more bodies.

Mizuno Kouhei wasn't actually investigating the origins of multicellular life when he found a bacterium given the label of "HS-3" on Kyushu -- the southernmost of Japan's four main islands -- in a cave in 2005. The microbial ecologist from Japan's National Institute of Technology and his colleagues had been collecting microbes from extreme environments, such as hot springs and caves. Their primary objective was to find new enzymes that could be used to make biodegradable plastic. However, when they cultured HS-3 in a lab dish, it featured an unusual iridescent sheen that suggested it deserved more investigation.

Mizuno and colleagues found that once individual HS-3 cells were deposited on a surface, they began to divide into long filaments. The strand folded up to form a colorful 2D array, along the lines of the liquid crystals used in digital displays. No other microbe was known to have such behavior. After about 5 days, the flat sheet began to thicken as a glob of opaque, rod-shaped cells accumulated. When immersed in water, these cells shot out of the microbe's "body" to spawn new colonies. Mizuno says the rod-shaped cells "made me feel as if I encountered an alien worm in a sci-fi movie." Each type of cell in HS-3 had a distinct structure and formed at different points in its life cycle, it seems in response to specific environmental cues -- in this case, submersion in water.

The multicellular adaptations of HS-3 appear to provide an evolutionary advantage. The bacterium was collected from a wall above an underground stream. While on the wall, the community can generate the rodlike cells; when rain causes the stream to rise and flood over the community, the cells are released and disperse out into the environment.

Katrin Hammerschmidt -- an evolutionary biologist at the Christian Albrecht University of Kiel -- says: "The term 'multicellularity' is not well defined." She believes a true multicellular organism consists only of cells that can only survive and reproduce as part of a larger organism. That isn't the case for HS-3, so she suggests: "The cave bacterium is another example for a prokaryote with a transient multicellular stage."