MrG's Blog & Notes

* This is an archive of my own online blog and notes, with weekly entries collected by month.

[MON 07 AUG 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 31

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: As discussed in an article from AVIATIONWEEK.com ("China Biggest Driver Of US Defense Spending Surge" by Matthew Fulco, 10 July 2023), the USA is currently preoccupied with the war in Ukraine -- but hasn't forgotten China. A study from investment banker TD Cowen (TDC) projects a surge in American defense spending over the next four years, the primary aim being to counter China in both conventional and nuclear weapons.

TDC estimates that the Pentagon's spending on a group of about 30 major weapons and munitions is set to jump 22% from fiscal 2024 to 2028, "a significant increase from prior plans." TD Cowen expects solid, near-term growth for conventional munitions but more sustained growth for atomic weapons as part of the Nuclear Triad Modernization.

Of course, there is short-term spending relative to the war in Ukraine, the report saying: "Ukraine-type weapons ... should benefit from funds appropriated by Congress over the last year for DOD refill and from foreign military sales to NATO countries." Specific items include Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies' Javelin anti-tank missiles, Lockheed's Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), Raytheon's Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and General Dynamics' Excalibur smart 155-millimeter rounds.

In the long term, Northrop Grumman programs are likely to grow the most on the back of nuclear modernization and rocket motors, with Lockheed right behind, carried by demand for both its conventional and nuclear programs. Northrop Grumman is bringing in defense dollars with its new B-21 Raider stealth bombers, with the Air Force planning to buy 100 at about $700 million each.

China is building its own stealth bomber, the Xian H-20, which being manufactured by the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). The H-20 is part of a broad, high-priority push by Beijing to modernize its nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon estimates that China plans to nearly quadruple its nuclear warheads from 400 to 1,500 by 2035. It is not clear why China wants to expand its nuclear forces so aggressively. The opacity of China's political system makes it hard to determine intent. 400 warheads is plenty for a deterrent. The conventional capabilities of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) are sufficient to make US intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict a costly exercise for Washington.

It may be the case that Beijing doesn't want to be a distant second to the USA in nuclear arms, even if there's no intent to use them -- that is, China wants parity for national prestige. After US President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Indonesia in November 2022, the White House issued a statement that said the two men "reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine."

The US is also working hard to build up stockpiles of conventional weapons, both to make up for munitions expenditures in Ukraine and to reinforce Taiwan. Taiwan's defense needs are driving production of Raytheon's Standard Missile Six (SM-6), Naval Strike Missiles, and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM). TDC said: "Raytheon's portfolio has implications for Taiwan scenarios, and increased production and stockpiling could be part of a US-Quad-Taiwan stockpiling and deterrence scenario." -- with "Quad" referring to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that includes the US, Japan, Australia, and India.

Looking ahead, TDC noted that the Pentagon wants contractors to add missile and munitions capacity, but they are hesitant to do so without assurances of sustained demand. In response, the Pentagon "appears willing to consider multiyear buys," with production to ramp up in 2024:25 and continue at an elevated level for several years thereafter "to achieve the inventory levels DOD wants to both replenish Ukraine and refill its own stockpile."

[ED: Improvements in Taiwan's defensive capability should outpace improvements in China's offensive capability -- meaning that the greatest danger is NOW, but declines over the longer run. For the present, there is no indication that China is preparing to invade Taiwan. In a few years, Taiwan will be awash in drones; stealthy long-range cruise missiles might be nice as well, to suggest to Beijing that attacking Taiwan would be expensive. One wonders what effect Russian defeat in Ukraine will have on China's plans as well.]

* BLACK SEA BATTLE: As discussed in an article from ECONOMIST.com ("How Oceans Became New Technological Battlefields", 8 July 2023), the war in Ukraine has been noted by slugfest ground battles, plus extensive use of missiles and drones. It has not been marked by a comparably intense naval war in the Black Sea.

Nonetheless, there is a naval war going on in the Black Sea. At the outset in February 2022, the Ukrainian Navy seemed hopelessly outgunned by the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which had 20 warships. Ukraine only had one warship worthy of the name, which was scuttled at the outset of the conflict to keep it from falling into Russian hands. The entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine seemed open to Russian naval attacks and amphibious operations.

That changed on 14 April 2022, when two Ukrainian antiship missiles sank the cruiser MOSKVA, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Since that time, Russian warships have been careful to keep their distance from Ukraine's coastlines, which are now effectively defended by some unknown number of antiship missiles, including Western-supplied Harpoons, presumably more Ukrainian-made antiship missiles, and possibly some other weapons. The effectiveness of the Ukrainian defense helped promote a deal with the Russians to permit grain shipments across the Black Sea -- though the Turks backed the deal and lent teeth to it through the Turkish Navy.

The sinking of the MOSKVA was nothing new; antiship missiles have been around for a long time, and the Russians were careless to take the vessel within range of possible threats. The MOSKVA might not have been even hit if the crew had been alert and it had more modern defenses; it appears Russian damage-control efforts were similarly deficient. Rune Andersen, head of the Norwegian Navy, says:

QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

Alas, all Ukraine was to do with the sinking was make the Russians keep their distance, with Russian submarines and surface vessels occasionally lobbing Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukraine. The Ukrainians are kept up-to-date on the actions of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, thanks to intelligence provided by the USA and other Ukrainian allies -- but the Ukrainians have lacked the weapons to do much about Russian sea-borne attacks.

The Ukrainians have made use of "uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)" -- drone boats -- to hit back. In October and November 2022, the USVs were deployed alongside aerial drones to attack Sevastopol, headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and an oil depot in Novorossiysk, a Russian port. Other attacks have followed, including an apparently successful hit on an intelligence ship near the Bosporus on 24 May 2023.

Drone boats are not exactly new; Iran-backed Houthi rebels used a USV to strike a Saudi frigate in 2017. However, Ukraine's USVs are highly sophisticated and intelligent, able to operate over long range. Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, Ukraine's navy chief, says: "Drones are very important elements of our warfare right now. The warfare of the future is a warfare of drones. No other country has as much experience using naval drones."

The Russians learn slowly, but they do learn, and it appears that a raid on Sevastopol in March 2023 with USVs was a bust, with one USV blocked by a boom and two others destroyed by machine gun fire. The Ukrainians, however, are nowhere near the limit of what is possible with maritime drones. There's no reason drones can't carry mines, antiship missiles, or torpedoes, with images of a big Ukrainian quadcopter drone dropping a torpedo as well.

The Ukrainians have also released images and drawings of a series of "Toloka" submarine drones, ranging from long-range torpedoes to small robot submarines with long range and capable of carrying tonnes of warload. The fact that images were released, however, suggests that the Tolokas are not close to being fielded, with the release intended to mislead the Russians -- possibly to distract from improved USVs much closer to operation.

There is considerable interest in maritime drones elsewhere. After the mysterious attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline in September 2022, European governments searched for means of spotting threats. Admiral Andersen says Norway reached out to private companies working offshore in activities such as oil and gas. "We found an industry with a huge sense of responsibility and a willingness to contribute."

Within days Andersen said he had 600 advanced undersea drones, some remotely operated and others autonomous. Working with Britain, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands, the drones scanned "every inch" of gas infrastructure over 9,000 square kilometers, before moving on to power and data cables. In early 2023, NATO a new critical undersea infrastructure co-ordination office to encourage such defensive co-operation.

There's plenty of work in progress in NATO nations to enhance maritime drone capabilities, much of it in secret, with Ukraine being a beneficiary. Indeed, Ukraine is serving as a naval "battle lab" of great value to NATO. Rear Admiral James Parkin, the British Royal Navy's director of development says:

QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

The naval war in the Black Sea is by no means over, and the current silence is deceptive. Admiral Neizhpapa says: "After the war we will certainly write a textbook. And we'll send it to all the NATO military academies."

* A video showed a group of Ukrainian soldiers sitting talking about a Russian prisoner, the discussion being edited-down somewhat here:

QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

Soldiers are like that -- most are not mean. Being a soldier is also boring, so they find amusements for themselves. MASHA & THE BEAR is a long-running series of computer-generated cartoons from a Russian named Oleg Kuzokov, featuring a cute but mischievous tyke named Masha, and a long-suffering Bear who tries to keep her out of trouble. If the Russians can make MASHA & THE BEAR, there's hope for them yet.

[MON 14 AUG 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 32

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: In news for this past week, Ohio conducted a special election relative to Issue 1, an initiative to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution in the November state election. The measure could be passed by a simple majority vote. In response to Issue 1, Republican legislature set up a referendum, to raise the threshold for an amendment to 60% -- and, much worse, proposed that signatures had to be obtained from all 88 Ohio counties, instead of 44 as is the law now. That would effectively make constitutional amendments impossible.

The referendum got shot down 57% to 43%. What was particularly interesting was that polls showed Ohio citizens evenly divided on the vote . The lopsided result demonstrated that, these days, Democrats are well more motivated than Republicans -- and indeed, Democrats were lined up to vote early. The thing about polls is they ask for an opinion, but can't really determine how serious anyone is. That means some number of people will express an opinion and then forget about the issue. Ohio is a swing state, overly dominated by Republicans these days; the times, however, are a'changing. [ED: Issue 1 passed in November by almost the same margin.]

* Donald Trump is facing yet another indictment -- to be discussed after it happens -- with the media playing up the fact that his poll numbers and donations go up every time it happens. A Twitter posting suggested that there was a difficulty in that thinking:

Indeed. Of course his fans will circle the wagons -- we could bet on it. [ED: Sadly, Trump got away with it.]

* Speaking of "not a winning formula" ... on Wednesday morning, FBI agents attempted to serve a warrant on the home of 75-year-old Craig Robertson of Provo, Utah, who had threatened to kill President Joe Biden during his visit to the state that day. Robertson had posted to social media:

QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

He had also said: "The time is right for a presidential assassination or two. First Joe then Kamala!!!" He had similarly made threats against government officials investigating Trump, including Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, US Attorney General Merrick Garland, and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Robertson, an Air Force veteran, was a gun collector; the FBI had him under surveillance from March. Agents had visited him earlier, with Robertson telling them to get lost: "I said it was a dream! We're done here! Don't return without a warrant."

He didn't take the hint and change his ways; they did return with a warrant, there was an armed confrontation, and Robertson was killed. Neighbors were startled, saying he wasn't in good health and couldn't get around much, and judged him harmless. His family did not help his cause by issuing a statement:

"Though his statements were intemperate at times, he has never, and would never, commit any act of violence against another human being over a political or philosophical disagreement." Robertson was "understandably frustrated and distraught" by "erosions to our constitutionally protected freedoms and the rights of free citizens wrought by what he, and many others in this nation, observed to be a corrupt and overreaching government. There was very little he could do but exercise his First Amendment right to free speech and voice his protest in what has become the public square of our age -- the internet and social media."

Of course, Robertson did not have a constitutional right to threaten and intimidate public officials, or confront Federal agents with a firearm when they came to take him in. There was not much sympathy for him online. I commented: MAGA MEETS DARWIN AWARDS.

* Armed Forces Ukraine has been conducting an offensive against Russian forces entrenched in the Donbas region since late spring, and now the fighting seems to be intensifying. It's hard to say exactly what's going on, since Ukrainian operational security is airtight. One interesting comment by an AFU officer did get out, the officer saying that kamikaze drones were rivaling artillery in importance.

That leads to the interesting question of where they're getting the k-drones. They expend hundreds, maybe thousands of them a day. Apparently they had been buying large numbers of drone assemblies from China, but that source is of course drying up. They could be getting them from Taiwan, but nobody's talking one way or another. The specific details of the k-drones are just as mysterious -- though they seem to pack a heavier punch than they used to. One video also showed k-drones ganging up on a Russian Terminator-2 combat vehicle and destroying it, suggesting that "drone swarming" is becoming a reality.

It's hard to say that the AFU is close to breaking through Russian defenses. What can be said is that, since the Russians are being pressured across a broad front, they can't focus their resources on defense of one sector. They've been attempting to perform spoiling attacks on other sectors of the line and getting nowhere. Can they continue? [ED: Yes, they could.]

The war of the cities continues as well. There was a video of two girls performing music on the streets of Zaphorizhzhia; they were killed by a Russian missile an hour later. The Ukrainians have been hitting back, with regular reports of precision drone strikes on Moscow, it seems always in the dark hours of the morning to avoid civilian casualties. The drones don't carry a big warload and they're not a major threat, though they do seem to get lucky on occasion. The blandly devious General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence, commented:

QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

The Ukrainians also fired two repurposed S-200 surface-to-air missiles -- mentioned here in the past -- at the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting Crimea to Russia. The Russians replied to a video of smoke billowing off the bridge with the claim that it was a smokescreen to protect repair crews. I replied: "Yeah -- like the S-200s are confused by smoke, right? I don't think so."

There were similar replies by others, one being a GIF of a Russian officer spokesman nicknamed "Vatnik Bob" -- in homage to the memorable "Baghdad Bob" of the First Iraq War -- saying: THERE IS NO PANIC.

* As discussed in an article from CNN.com ("Scientists Discover A 5-mile wide Undersea Crater Created As The Dinosaurs Disappeared" by Katie Hunt, 18 August 2022), it is known that a huge meteor strike occurred in the Yucatan at the end of the age of dinosaurs. Researchers have found evidence of a second major impact around that time -- a previously undiscovered crater 400 kilometers (250 miles) off the west coast of Africa.

Uisdean Nicholson, an assistant professor at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, found the crater by accident while reviewing seismic survey data for another project on Atlantic plate tectonics. He says: "While interpreting the data, I [came] across this very unusual crater-like feature, unlike anything I had ever seen before. It had all the characteristics of an impact crater." It had the right ratio of crater width to depth, the height of the rims, and the height of the central uplift.

The crater is 8 kilometers (5 miles) wide, and Nicholson believes it was likely caused by an asteroid more than 400 meters (1,300 feet) wide smashing into the Earth's crust. It was not in the same league as the Chicxulub impact, which left a crater about 160 kilometers (100 miles) wide in what is now the Yucatan, but it was still monstrous. He says:

QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

It would have generated a tsunami wave up to a kilometer high at the source, fading to a few meters by the time it reached South America. Inspection of microfossils in nearby exploration wells show that the crater was formed around 66 million years ago, at the end of the Cretaceous period. However, there's still uncertainty of about a million years of its exact age. There may or may not be any linkage between this impact and the Yucatan impact, but it is possible that the two were due to the breakup of a single large asteroid, whose pieces then struck the Earth.

[MON 21 AUG 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 33

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: A wildfire blew up on the Hawaiian island of Maui this last week, with the popular resort town of Lahaina being wiped out, and at least a hundred people killed. The ruins of the town were still being inspected at last notice, so the toll is likely to increase. Drought conditions, amplified by climate change, and gusty winds were the culprits.

Conspiracy truthers had different ideas, saying the fires were caused by space lasers -- or something along that line -- as part of a conspiracy in which corporate villains seized the island -- or something like that. As evidence, the truthers showed a picture of a time-lapse image of a rocket taking off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California that looked like, of course, a space laser blasting the ground.

Where do they find these people? Not incidentally, I've given up referring to "conspiracy theories", now preferring to call them "conspiracy stories / tales", or better yet "conspiracy hoaxes". Of course they're hoaxes, they're made-up, they never go anywhere. Similarly, "conspiracy theorist" becomes "conspiracy truther / troll / kook".

* Incidentally, speaking of trolls, Elon Musk is saying that he wants to eliminate the ability to block trolls on Xitter. As is typical of the "Musk Rat", exactly why is not clear. One reason is that blocking increases the computing load on the servers, another reason is that blocking interferes with the ad system. Musk replied to complaints with sarcasm. It is also not clear if he will follow through; apparently, both the Android Store and Apple Store will refuse to support the X/Twitter app if it doesn't have blocking.

I have an account on Spoutible, which is a moderated answer to Xitter. It seems Musk is determined to drive everyone but the trolls out, which should be to Spoutible's benefit -- but it takes years to build up a social-media app. One problem is funding, since server costs escalate as new users sign up.

Spoutible has been taking donations, and there's also talk of going to "equity crowdfunding". Which is what? It's like this: typically crowdfunding is based on advance sales of a new product, but that wouldn't work for Spoutible. The alternative is to buy shares in a crowdfunded venture. I like that idea; I wouldn't be expecting anything from it financially, but I would enjoy having a bit of ownership of the venture, and I've been donating anyway.

* As discussed in an article from REUTERS.com ("US Launches $7 Billion Program To Bring Solar To Low-Income Households" by Valerie Volcovici, 28 June 2023), back in June the US Environmental Protection Agency launched a $7 billion USD competitive grant program to give low-income communities access to residential solar panels. The agency is making up to 60 awards to community groups around the country representing specific states, Native Americans, and Alaska Natives, and multi-state programs. The grants are part of the $27 billion USD Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund established in the Inflation Reduction Act. The goal is to infuse "transformational" capital to communities that have not been able to attract clean energy and transportation investments, while suffering from pollution.

The awards will help communities develop low-income solar programs -- providing financing and technical assistance, such as workforce development -- and help low-income households receive the benefits of rooftop solar, including household savings, community ownership and energy resiliency. The program will guarantee a minimum 20% total electricity bill savings for households.

The EPA is also conducting a $14 billion USD National Clean Investment Fund (NCIF) grant competition to expand deployment of renewable technologies on the national scale; along with a competition for the $6 billion USD Clean Communities Investment Accelerator, which will bolster funding through community lenders.

* As discussed in an article from THEDRIVE.com ("Navy's New 381-Hull Fleet Plan Recommits To Big Amphibious Warfare Ships" by Joseph Trevithick, 19 July 2023), the US Navy has sent a report to Congress that lays out plans for a "battle force" of 381 ships and submarines. The report specifically affirmed a need for at least 31 large amphibious warships. The Navy had envisioned a "strategic pause" on obtaining new amphibious ships -- which didn't go over well with the US Marines, since a number of major amphibious ships are scheduled to be retired. Apparently there was something of a miscommunication, the Navy saying there was never any intent to short-change the USMC.

The 2022 iteration of this report to Congress had specified a requirement for a battle force with 373 vessels in total. The service currently expects the size of its battle force in the 2024 Fiscal Year to be 293 vessels, including 29 amphibious warfare ships -- meaning AMERICA and WASP-class amphibious assault ships (aircraft carriers crossed with landing ships), SAN ANTONIO-class landing platform dock (LPD) ships, plus WHIDBEY ISLAND and HARPERS FERRY-class dock landing ships (LSD). Underlying the requirement for a large fleet is Navy concern over US shipbuilding capacity.

The 381-ship number does not include uncrewed (robot) ships and submarines. The Navy has said in the past that the service expects to acquire around 150 uncrewed platforms of various types in the coming years, some of which will be more than mere robot boats. The reports were classified and specifics were not released; the Navy has been particularly secretive about robot ships and submarines.

* As discussed in an article from ECONOMIST.com ("Why African Leaders Shunned Vladimir Putin's Summit", 26 July 2023), Russian President Vladimir Putin has long courted the leaders of African countries. In 2019, he invited African heads of state to Sochi, Russia, for the first Russia-Africa summit, with 43 attending. In late July, Putin held a second summit in Saint Petersburg -- with only about 17 attending.

Russian officials blamed Western meddling for the low turnout, but the reality is that Africa is ambivalent towards Russia. Of Africa's 54 countries, 19 backed Ukraine in most of the five votes on the war at the UN General Assembly in the first year of the conflict -- with only two voting for Russia, and the rest abstaining. There's a mix of reasons for the ambivalence:

• A number are autocracies whose ruling elites are linked to Russia, with a few hosting Russian Wagner Group mercenaries.
  
  
• Some African nations have long had dealings with Russia, and are inclined to continue them.
  
  
• Some trust Russia more than they trust Western nations, who are inclined to scold African leaders for corruption.

Most generally, however, African leaders just don't want to pick sides, sensibly wanting to strike a balance. That balance was upset when, on 17 July, Russia said it would no longer honor a deal made a year ago to allow Ukraine to export grain, and then began to launch cruise missiles to attack grain-storage facilities in Ukrainian ports.

Africa needs Ukrainian grain, so withdrawing from the deal struck at their national interests. Losing grain imports could mean high prices at best and starvation at worst. Putin has attempted to keep African leaders happy by giving them deals on Russian grain and handing them other perks.

The problem for Putin is that Russia is a poor country and doesn't have much leverage in Africa. In 2018, the most recent year with proper statistics, Russia gave $28 million USD in bilateral aid to African countries, less than a hundredth of what Britain gave. As far as foreign direct investment in Africa goes, in 2020 Russia-Africa trade reached $14 billion USD -- only 2% of the continent's total and about a twentieth of EU-Africa trade. At the 2019 Russia-Africa summit, officials played up deals worth $12.5 billion, but most of them fizzled.

Russia does have some good cards in its dealings with Africa, selling weapons to sub-Saharan African regimes such as Uganda more cheaply and with fewer strings than the West would attach. Its Wagner mercenaries back up autocratic rulers, and so it was no surprise that African countries where the ruling elite has the closest ties to Russia -- such as Algeria, Madagascar, Mozambique, Uganda and Zimbabwe -- preferred to abstain in UN votes on the war in Ukraine. Russian propaganda, particularly on social media, has successfully exploited anti-Western sentiment that is widespread on the continent, particularly in Francophone West Africa. In a poll of 23 African countries in 2022, Gallup found that the states with the highest approval ratings of Russia were Mali (84%) and Ivory Coast (71%). The top seven were Francophone.

Still, that leverage only goes so far. In 2021 Afrobarometer, a research group, released results of polls across 34 African countries that showed only a bit more than a third of respondents said Russia was a good influence -- which was less than the shares given former colonial powers, the USA, and China.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now trying to woo African states. Roughly in parallel with the second Africa-Russia summit, Zelenskyy hosted a group of African journalists -- to compare Ukraine's struggle against Russia as like that of Africans against colonialists, and warn them that Russian generosity to Africans was intended to make them politically dependent. Whatever Africans think of Ukraine, they already know better than to put much trust in Russia.

* As discussed in an article from REUTERS.com ("Georgia Man Sentenced To 27 Years In Jail Over $463 Million USD Genetic Testing Scheme" by Kanishka Singh, 18 August 2023), it is well-known among the medically literate that genetic testing is a somewhat dubious exercise. In particular, genetic testing for cancer can rarely give any indication of risk level more or even as persuasive as simple observation of a patient's physical condition and lifestyle.

One Minal Patel, 44, of Atlanta, Georgia, went well beyond "dubious". Patel owned LabSolutions LLC, a lab enrolled with Medicare that performed sophisticated genetic tests. Patel conspired with patient brokers, telemedicine companies, and call centers to target Medicare beneficiaries with telemarketing calls promoting genetic tests supposedly covered by Medicare. Once a mark snapped at the bait, Patel paid kickbacks and bribes to patient brokers to obtain signed doctors' orders authorizing the tests. Patel had the patient brokers sign bogus contracts to keep them from talking.

From 2016 to 2019, LabSolutions submitted more than $463 million USD in claims to Medicare, including for useless genetic tests, of which Medicare paid over $187 million USD, with Patel personally receiving over $21 million USD in Medicare proceeds, prosecutors added. He was indicted in 2019 on charges of health care fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy to defraud the USA, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and payment of illegal health care kickbacks. His arrest was part of a crackdown on genetic-testing fraud that busted 35 people in four states that officials said cost the US government over $2 billion USD. Patel was convicted late last year, and has now been sentenced to 27 years in prison.

[ED: I'm not sure why, but I find stories of big-time frauds highly amusing. What I particularly wonder is if Patel realized he was doing anything wrong. That sort of disconnect seems common among flim-flam men.]

[MON 28 AUG 23] THE WEEK THAT WAS 34

* THE WEEK THAT WAS: This last week, Donald Trump and 18 accomplices were arraigned in Atlanta GA on the latest set of charges, for trying to game the 2020 election. They all had mug shots taken, star accomplices including Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, John Eastman, Jeffrey Clarke, and Sidney Powell. This was Trump's fourth arraignment, tallying up a grand total of 91 felony counts. There was much amusement on Xitter:

Mark Hamill / @MarkHamill:  May The Fourth Arrest Be With Him

Mac McCullough / @SpitfireMarkIX:  Sidney Powell -- COME ON DOWN!  
You're the next contestant on ... THE INDICTMENT IS RIGHT!

The Wry Observer / @TockTick5167AD:
Mugshots a-dropping of big sorry losers, 
Bails of six figures for voting abusers, 
Feds closing in on a big RICO ring, 
These are a few of my favorite things!

The Rodgers & Hammerstein reference was a nice touch. Anyway, the MAGA faithful are playing up Trump's mug shot as a badge of honor, saying indictments will ensure his re-election. Trump said: "Any time they file an indictment, we go way up in the polls."

Well, maybe. A Politico / IPSOS poll gave a more balanced read:

• About 60% of Americans want a Trump trial before elections. Only 20% don't want one, the other 20% being indifferent.
  
  
• About 50% of Americans think Trump is guilty, with only half that many saying he isn't, the rest either indifferent or reserving judgement.
  
  
• Only about 10% of respondents said a Trump conviction would make it more likely they would vote for him, with about a third saying it would make it less likely. The rest considered it a "don't care" -- which, reading between the lines in the poll, includes the many people who wouldn't vote for him anyway. The pollsters should have broken that question down a bit.
  
  
• Between a quarter and a third of respondents honestly said they didn't understand the cases against Trump all that well. Again, reading between the lines, that means things are likely to get worse for Trump, since no Trump defender would concede the cases against him are valid. The drawn-out dull plod of court proceedings against Trump does not work in his favor.
  
  
• Half of respondents said Trump needs to be locked up if he's convicted. Only about a fifth said he shouldn't be punished, with the rest saying he should get probation or a fine. Not incidentally, locking up Trump leads to a number of practical difficulties. However, putting him on probation has a particular difficulty in that he would be incapable of obeying the rules of his probation.
  
  
• About 60% of Americans say the DOJ is handling Trump's case fairly, the rest saying the DOJ is being partisan.

In an interview with MSNBC's Jen Psaki, New Hampshire's Republican Governor Chris Sununu says that the mug shot "doesn't change anything" with Trump's base. He commented: "It allows him to maintain his presence in the media, his image."

There is a descending line from Ronald Reagan to Trump. Reagan was an honorable person who was given a mandate for an experiment on America. I don't think Reagan would have liked the way it turned out. It failed. The line ends with Trump.

* During this last week Yevgeny Prigozhin -- boss of the Russian Wagner mercenary group -- was killed along with nine others in the crash of a Wagner executive jet. Prigozhin had led a noisy but short-lived uprising against Moscow in June, and it is widely believed the plane was bombed or shot down under Vladimir Putin's orders. Nothing is really known for certain about the matter, except for the fact that the decline and fall of Prigozhin indicates deep fissures in Putin's rule.

In the meantime, Armed Forces Ukraine is making slow progress on the battlefield -- with much public comment on the "slow" and not much celebration on the "progress". Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, in an interview with the German newspaper BILD, counseled patience, saying the AFU counter-offensive is on track.

The head of the defense ministry stressed that the Russian occupiers had densely mined the territories and prepared for defense. Ukraine's partners are aware of the situation at the front and understand what is going on. Reznikov said:

QUOTE:

END_QUOTE

Reznikov admitted that that Ukraine is making slower progress than expected, but explained that the AFU wants to protect the lives of its soldiers and preserve military equipment: "We are not going to send our soldiers to die in battle without any result. ... The counter-offensive is not a film. It is not a Hollywood blockbuster." For myself, I am patient. I suspect that when Russian resistance crumbles, it will do so dramatically. In addition, there appear to be some significant new weapons in the wings that should make a difference.

In other Ukraine War news, the Ukrainians released (dark) footage of a robot submarine, the "Marichka", about the size of the tank on a big tanker truck, and with a stated range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). It was said to be for reconnaissance, cargo transport, or attack missions -- it seems likely to be used for minelaying.

The Ukrainians tend to be quiet about new weapons, so there was some puzzlement on Xitter as to why the robot sub was being played up. One Ukrainian explained it easily: "To make the Russians shit their pants." Even if the Marichka isn't ready for service yet, it can still make the Russians jumpy. [ED: The Marichka then disappeared from view. Apparently, with the success of surface sea drones, it wasn't seen as necessary.]

Incidentally, "Marichka" is a girl's name, applied to a manga-style combat mascot associated with the AFU Azov Brigade, underdressed in fatigues. One cartoon of Marichka had her walking with Joe Biden in Kyiv, both eating chocolate-chip ice-cream cones.

* In 2011, a nuclear reactor at Fukushima in Japan was severely damaged by an earthquake and accompanying tsunami, leading to a long-term radioactive cleanup operation. One consequence was that a million tonnes of radioactive water is now being dispersed into the sea.

The Chinese have objected loudly, with Japanese fishermen objecting as well. However, all radioactive isotopes have been filtered out of the water except for tritium AKA heavy hydrogen, which is too hard to get rid of, and the discharge will be slow, taking decades. The concentrations of tritium will be about 50 times lower than the limits set for drinking water by the World Health Organization. In addition, tritium has a half-life of about 12 years, meaning it decays to normal hydrogen quickly. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, has approved the plan, saying that it met international standards and that the impact it would have on people and the environment was "negligible".

There's nothing new about discharges of tritium-tainted water, they've been done for about 60 years. The hysteria is ridiculous. The complaints from China are to be expected. South Korea has said the discharge is not problematic, but didn't endorse it. It appears the critical path for the Japanese government was to get Japanese fishermen on board.